From Joe D. with a note: To all of my Sabermetric Mets friends... Happy Thanksgiving!
about 1 hour ago
Sam Page
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Mets roundtable discussion, part five: Second-tier pitchers on the free-agent market - - NJ.com
And the exciting conclusion of our five-day blogger roundtable at NJ.com. Today's question:
If the Mets do not sign John Lackey, which other free-agent pitcher do you think would be the best fit for them?
Adjusted Mets Position Player WAR
by James Kannengieser on Nov 20, 2009 12:00 PM EST
in Stats
8 comments
This is a post I prepared shortly after the season ended but never put up for whatever reason. The recent Hardball Times article by Jeremy Greenhouse "Criminals of WAR", which correctly posits that we shouldn't be slaves to Fangraphs WAR, provided a reminder that this information was sitting in my hard drive. Using Fangraphs WAR as a baseline, I incorporated baserunning and other non-UZR defensive metrics to calculate adjusted WAR for 2009 Mets position players. Here are the components:
Batting: Identical to Fangraphs, park-adjusted wRAA.
Fielding: For non-catchers I averaged UZR and John Dewan's Plus/Minus metric. For catchers I used devil_fingers's numbers from Driveline Mechanics.
Replacement: Identical to Fangraphs, the adjustment for replacement based on playing time.
Positional: Identical to Fangraphs, the adjustment based on position.
Baserunning: Baseball Prospectus's baserunning stat, EqBRR, less runs from stolen bases (EqSBR) since stolen bases and caught stealings are already accounted for in the batting component.
Rather than posting the whole thing here, I uploaded the data to a Google Doc. Here are the top 5 players whose adjusted WAR (AWAR) increased the most as compared to Fangraphs WAR (FGWAR).
| Rank | Player | AWAR | FGWAR | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Murphy | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | Angel Pagan | 3.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | Jeff Francoeur | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | Anderson Hernandez | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.4 |
| 5 | Ryan Church | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
Comments:
- David Wright was dreadful in the field this year but terrific on the basepaths.
- Angel Pagan, Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis's values increased mainly due to high defensive ratings from Plus/Minus: +16, +10 and +9, respectively. I stopped to think about having Tatis on the team next year but it's probably for the best that he isn't.
- UZR and Plus/Minus have historically agreed on Jeff Francoeur's defense but this year they strongly differed. In the end, it seems like he and Ryan Church provided similar value to the Mets in 2009, with Francoeur having more playing time.
- Jeremy Reed, Carlos Delgado and Josh Thole lost the most value between revised WAR and Fangraphs WAR, but it wasn't much.
- My fellow nerds and I will now retire to the nerdery with our calculators.
8 comments | 0 recs |
Hot Stove Tracker - MLB.com
Sortable list of all free agents, including major and minor leagues. Type A/B status is indicated as well. Luis Ayala is still available.
Psych! Matt Holliday Still A Free Agent
by Eric Simon on Nov 20, 2009 9:14 AM EST
16 comments
Matt Holliday is clearly the cream of the free agent crop, but there are a lot of other candidates for the Mets' supposed left field vacancy. Here they are, in the same format as the starting pitchers from yesterday.
| Player | 2010 Age | WAR 2009 | WAR 2008 | WAR 2007 | 5-3-1 | WAR $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Holliday* | 30 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 27.5 |
| Mike Cameron | 37 | 4.3 | 4 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 17.9 |
| Johnny Damon* | 36 | 3 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 14.1 |
| Jason Bay* | 31 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 13.2 |
| Marlon Byrd | 32 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 12.5 |
| Randy Winn | 36 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 12.4 |
| Hideki Matsui | 36 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 8.4 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 35 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 7.4 |
| Rick Ankiel | 31 | 0.1 | 2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 4.0 |
| Andruw Jones | 33 | 0.8 | -0.9 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 2.5 |
Mike Cameron is the bargain on this list, as he will surely sign for far less than he is worth. Of course, if the Mets did sign him and move him to a corner (again) he'd lose some (possibly considerable) value due to the negative relative positional adjustment from center to left or right.
Johnny Damon and Jason Bay are fine players, but both are Type-A free agents and even though the Mets' first round pick is protected I don't think they want to give up a top-forty selection for the 36-year-old Damon. They might be inclined to do so for Bay, but he's likely make just a few million less than Holliday despite being the clearly inferior player, all-around.
Marlon Byrd is an interesting option, as he won't cost nearly as much as anyone above him, but he too loses some value by switching to a corner.
Fernando Tatis is also looking for work, so there's that.
16 comments | 0 recs |
Welcome To Free Agency!
by Eric Simon on Nov 20, 2009 1:00 AM EST
26 comments
This post was originally titled "Mets Sign Matt Holliday", which seemed funny to me at 1am last night but in retrospect is still pretty funny but also kinda douchey. I didn't think people would actually believe that Scott Boras's top client would sign a deal five minutes into free agency. My bad.
26 comments | 0 recs |
The Bengie Horror Picture Show
by James Kannengieser on Nov 20, 2009 12:15 AM EST
in Analysis
11 comments
Some are out watching the "New Moon" premiere and even fewer are at a midnight showing of "The Rocky Horror Picture Show". With the advent of free agency, we are here to amaze you with astonishing tales of Bengie Molina, courtesy of some of the best blogs around. Let's do the time warp again:
Bengie NO-Lina: BlueAndOrange
Some Things About Bengie Molina: Tedquarters
Running The Bases - Part 3: The Laggards: Fangraphs
Mo'Lina Mo'Problems or: Why Bengie Molina To The Mets Is A Bad Idea: Amazin' Avenue
Note: I could probably link to about 1000 McCovey Chronicles posts on the subject but I won't. Just go there and ask about Bengie if you need some guidance.
11 comments | 0 recs |
TONIGHT AT 9PM ET IT’S PRO BASEBALL CENTRAL: METS HOT STOVE EDITION
I'll be on 'Pro Baseball Central' tonight at 9:30pm EST to chat about the Mets' long offseason. I'll mostly be talking about my spreadsheets, why I don't watch any games, and the myriad ways baseball could be improved by switching from human players to robots.
You should be able to listen via the internets at Pro Baseball Central or at The Eddie Kranepool Society.
1 day ago
Eric Simon
16 comments
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Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
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NL East Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia
|
93 | 69 | .574 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
Florida
|
87 | 75 | .537 | 6 | Lost 1 |
|
Atlanta
|
86 | 76 | .530 | 7 | Lost 6 |
|
New York
|
70 | 92 | .432 | 23 | Won 3 |
|
Washington
|
59 | 103 | .364 | 34 | Won 7 |
(updated 11.21.2009 at 12:26 AM EST)
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