Wednesday Notes

by Eric Simon on Dec 14, 2005 4:16 PM EST

While I applaud the additions of Carlos Delgado and Billy Wagner to the Mets, and quietly ponder the rationale for trading a top prospect for a mediocre catcher, it's probably their starting pitching that will make or break the team.

Pedro should still be a top flight ace and Glavine will likely be solid yet unspectacular, as he has for the past three seasons as a Met. I am very low on Kris Benson right now, however, and I really bemoan the Mets' blasé courtship of the Diamondbacks' Javy Vazquez, who has now been traded to the pitching-rich White Sox.

It's not so much that Benson has thus far pitched uninspiringly for the entirety of his career, or that he was a #1 overall pick yet has never really pitched well enough to be considered anything better than a decent #3 starter. His peripherals last year really bother me. His walk rate was fine (2.53 BB/9) but his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career (4.90 K/9) and his homerun rate was awful (1.24 HR/9) despite playing in a very good park for pitchers. He has never been an overpowering strikeout pitcher, but his inability to miss bats last season was alarming, and definitely a cause for concern.

Ther was some talk that he abandoned one of his pitches early in the season and was basically a two-pitch pitcher the rest of the way. Whatever the case, I don't have a lot of confidence in him reproducing the decent 4.13 ERA he had last year.

Further down the rotation, my opinion of Benson is contrasted starkly by my opinion of Jae Seo, who I feel will be terrific in 2006. Probably not 2.59 ERA terrific, but his walk rate last year was outstanding (1.59 BB/9) and his homerun rate was good (0.90 HR/9). His strikeout rate wasn't that good (5.88 K/9), though it was very good when he was down with Norfolk early in 2005 (8.21 K/9), so I suspect his true level is somewhere in between.

Though I'm not a huge Steve Trachsel fan, the Mets could do much worse for the back end of their rotation, and assuming he or Benson isn't traded before the season starts the Mets can count on having one of the better staffs in the National League. Just off the top of my head, the Astros and Cardinals will almost certainly be better, the Cubs will probably be better, but otherwise the Mets stack up very well with every other starting rotation in the senior circuit.

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Mets rotation

Don't forget Aaron Heilman, who could easily be the Mets #3 starter if he comes in from the bullpen. The more I think about it, the more I hope Omar suckers some team into trading a few bullpen arms for Benson so Heilman can go back into the rotation.

As for Seo, his relative low strikeout/9 rate doesn't really concern me, as Tom Glavine and Jamie Moyer both proved in their heydays that you don't have to strike out the world to be an all-star. They were great control artists, and it appears Seo has figured that out, as he walked a mere 16 batters in 90 innings, giving him an outstanding WHIP and a good K/BB ratio, even without Randy Johnson-esque K numbers.

by Greenpoint Ian on Dec 14, 2005 5:56 PM EST reply actions

Benson

I am not so low on Benson. I mean, I don't think he is that much of an upgrade over Javier Vasquez. I know that they are very different pitchers, Vasquez struggled in New York under the spotlight. Plus the Yankees then had more personalities for him to ease under than the Mets do now. And, Vasquex would cost Aaron Heilman and more prospects, and you can say that Heilman is a better pitcher now than Vasquez is now. Also considering that Heilman is going to only get better, I am happy that Javier Vasquez is not a New York Met. He would be a Roberto Alomar-type disaster.

2QYankeehater: Diehard Mets fan, huge Yankeehater, and worshipper of David Wright.

by 2QYankeehater on Dec 14, 2005 7:17 PM EST reply actions

Victor-y?

Martinez
Glavine
Benson
Trachsel
Seo

So, are we now confident that Mets management is leaving Victor Zambrano out of the starting rotation? I agree that Seo looks like the better pitcher at this point (and, really, has looked that way for a while). Probably Heilman is also a more reliable starter; I share the feeling that we haven't seen his best yet, and the bullpen may not be his permanent assignment. But the desire to make it look like we traded Kazmir for something real must still be strong, and even if Zambrano is going to be traded they'll want to play him long enough to get some value in return. His trade value this offseason has to be low indeed. I would guess that if Benson is traded, it'll be Victor and not Heilman who returns to the rotation. Even if Benson isn't traded, it's not out of the question that the organization may give Jae Seo the shaft one more time in favor of a lesser pitcher (he ought to at least be used to it by now).

by anonymous on Dec 14, 2005 7:40 PM EST reply actions

I heard Willie

talking to Joe Benigno today. He said that Seo will have to earn a job and that he doesn't like to just pencil anyone in. He wants to see guys come into spring training in good shape and pitch well. I didn't read that as him thinking of Zambrano, but he wasn't really on my mind at the time.

He also said he beleives in Matsui.

Mr Koufax, don't you think Flanders is a big jerk?

by peteyfan45 @ Amazin' Avenue on Dec 14, 2005 9:05 PM EST up reply actions

I think his job would be in danger

if he said anything contrary to what you report...all stock responses.

by peeder on Dec 14, 2005 9:38 PM EST up reply actions

Matsui

He also said he beleives in Matsui.

He should; Hideki is a helluva player.

by Eric Simon on Dec 14, 2005 10:42 PM EST up reply actions

rotation???

how can u rip benson and traschel and say we have one of the best staff in baseball???? u think we are top 7 in NL.

by cRock NY on Dec 15, 2005 2:52 AM EST reply actions

Pitching

I think the Mets definitely have one of the seven best starting rotations in the National League. In fact, I'd have a hard time naming even six who are better.

I ripped Benson by saying I don't have a lot of confidence in him. I said I wasn't a huge Trachsel fan, but followed that up by saying that the Mets could do a lot worse for a #5 starter.

by Eric Simon on Dec 15, 2005 9:26 AM EST up reply actions

Glavine fails when he's most needed

Tom Glavine has been a poor pitcher in the post-season. I'm one of those folks who believe that a player can be "clutch", or can wilt under pressure. Glavine has done poorly in the post-season, and may be one of the key reasons why Atlanta has been so pathetic in October. Overall, Glavine is 12-15 in the post-season. He won two games in the 1995 strike-season World Series against Cleveland. Other than that, he has not been very helpful when the games counted most. In 2002, he basically handed San Francisco game 1 (in Atlanta) and 4 (in San Francisco). In 2001, he pitched well to win game 2, then lost the deciding game 5. In 2000, after Atlanta lost game 1 to St. Louis, Glavine, with an opportunity to turn things around, and handed a 2-0 lead in the first inning, fell apart and gave up 7 earned runs, lasting 2.1 innings.

In short, when Atlanta lost in the post-season, Glavine was usually in the middle of it. He is NOT the guy that I want to have pitching for the 2006 Mets when the pedal hits the metal.

by elliot on Dec 15, 2005 8:18 AM EST reply actions

Glavine

Tom Glavine has been a poor pitcher in the post-season

Has he? His career regular season ERA is 3.44. His career playoff ERA is 3.58. His career walk rate is 3.12 BB/9; his postseason walk rate is 3.58 BB/9. His career strikeout rate is 5.35 K/9; his postseason strikeout rate is 6.12 K/9.

It looks like he has pitched about the same in the postseason as compared to the regular season - no small feat considering the quality of the competition. Isn't it possible that his record in the playoffs isn't better because his teammates didn't "step it up" and score him some runs?

by Eric Simon on Dec 15, 2005 9:20 AM EST up reply actions

Post Season Tommy

Tom had some good post-season outings. One way to evaluate his performance, though, is to look at the series that Atlanta lost, and see what role Glavine played in those series.

Another thing - before Tom had the accidental dental work done in a taxi in 2004, didn't he have several bad games to really hurt whatever chances the Mets may have had to make a wild card run?

by elliot on Dec 15, 2005 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

Glavine

I'm not sure if you hold some kind of grudge against Tom Glavine, but it seems like you're looking for evidence to support your claim that he's not a "big game pitcher" instead of looking at all of the evidence and drawing a conclusion from that.

The Mets were terrible after the All-Star break in 2004, so you'll have a tough time pinning all of that on Tom Glavine.

In eight World Series starts (8!) Tom Glavine is 4-3 with a 2.47 ERA. Here is a breakdown of those games:

1991, Game 2: 8 IP, 3R, 3ER (Braves lost 3-2)
1991, Game 5: 5.1 IP, 3R, 3ER (Braves won 5-3)
1992, Game 1: 9 IP, 1R, 1ER (Braves won 3-1)
1992, Game 4: 8 IP, 2R, 2ER (Braves lost 2-1)
1995, Game 2: 6 IP, 2R, 2ER (Braves won 4-2)
1995, Game 6: 8 IP, 0R, 1H (Braves won 1-0)
1996, Game 3: 7 IP, 2R, 1ER (Braves lost 5-2)
1999, Game 3: 7 IP, 5R, 4ER (Braves lost 6-5)

In eight starts Glavine had one game which could be considered bad (1999 Game 3). He allowed three runs or less in the other seven starts, and two runs or less in five of them. If you want to evaluate Glavine solely on his performance in the most important games -- not really a fair method, IMO -- then you must draw the conclusion that he has been an outstanding big game pitcher.

by Eric Simon on Dec 15, 2005 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

Well put

Thanks for taking the time to lay this out, Eric.

Do I have a grudge? Yes - the same grudge that most Mets fans had against Tom Glavine. It is wearing off, though. I'm not at the point yet where I'll be calling him "Tommy", but I'm not spitting on the sidewalk when I see him in a Mets jersey either. It hurts a bit to root for a guy who I know will be entering the Hall Of Fame wearing a Braves jersey.

Given that, I can't argue with your logic. The case that you layed out so well has caused me to be more optimistic about calling on Tom in the post-season. I hope to have the opportunity to see Tom get WS starts number 9 and 10 in 2006, and that he pitched as well as he did in 7 of his 8 prior WS starts. I hope that 2006 sees "Tom" become "Tommy". I hope that he becomes the second best "Tom" who has pitched in Shea in October.

by elliot on Dec 15, 2005 12:02 PM EST reply actions

QUESTIONS ABOUT SPRING TRAINING

THIS IS MY FIRST TIME POSTING. I HOPE I'M POSTING IN THE RIGHT PLACE. ANYWAY MY QUESTION IS; ARE THE PRACTICES HELD THE LAST WEEK OF FEB. OPEN TO THE PUBLIC. WE USUALLY GO TO SPRING TRAINING IN MARCH AND GO TO THE GAMES. THIS YEAR MARCH IS NOT GOING TO WORK OUT FOR US. ALSO WHAT ABOUT THE INTER SQUAD GAMES?
THANKS

by marymonet on Dec 28, 2005 10:57 PM EST reply actions