OOPs, look who's overrated?

by Eric Simon on Dec 20, 2005 5:27 PM EST

Rich Lederer has an interesting and entertaining article up at The Baseball Analysts regarding overrated ballplayers. Basically, Rich identifies overrated players as ones who:

[x] Have an AVG better than the league
[x] Have an OBP worse than the league
[x] Have a SLG worse than the league

Ostensibly these are players whose offensive value is derived mostly from their high batting average. In other words, guys who hit lots of singles, don't draw walks and don't hit for much power. It doesn't take into account speed-related contributions (e.g. stolen bases). Here is the Top 10:

                              YEAR      AVG      OBA      SLG
1    Willy Taveras            2005     .291     .325     .341
2    So Taguchi               2005     .288     .322     .412
3    Toby Hall                2005     .287     .315     .368
4    Terrence Long            2005     .279     .321     .378
5    Edgardo Alfonzo          2005     .277     .327     .345
6    Juan Pierre              2005     .276     .326     .354
7    Neifi Perez              2005     .274     .298     .383
8    Shannon Stewart          2005     .274     .323     .388
9    Jose Reyes               2005     .273     .300     .386
10   Darin Erstad             2005     .273     .325     .371

The Mets' very own Jose Reyes clocks in at #9, which shouldn't really come as a big surprise to anyone who has followed the Mets. Reyes draws nary a walk and hits very few homeruns. He did hit 17 triples last year, but he only hit 24 doubles to go along with just seven homeruns. His inability to draw walks hurts him in two ways: first, it makes his on-base percentage heavily-dependent upon his batting average. Second, it makes his 48 extra-base hits much less impressive because he had so many (696) official at-bats.

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Comments

Stupid.

Statistics are a guideline of course, and these don't tell the whole truth about Reyes in particular. Reasons:

#1 - He's young. He's only played one full year in the league. He's still learning and Randolph is already addressing his plate patience, which began to improve last year.

#2 - Speed is not considered. In this case, Reyes not only gets a TON of steals, but he changes the game in ways not just recorded by SB's.

#3 - He's a shortstop. This is not a prime power position. Slugging is not a very viable statistic for the position as a whole (with obvious exceptions).

#4 - A minor details...The Mets lacked a consistent #2 guy last year. Reyes had very little protection, and a lot to prove as a rookie.

So, as we all feel...not worried. In fact, if anything, this really indicts Juan Pierre more...a veteran player, in an outfield position. Erstad too. As for the rest of them...would you call them highly valued? I don't really think so.

Poor Fonzi.

"They win the damn thing by a score of 10-9!"

by ZaBlanc on Dec 20, 2005 8:22 PM EST reply actions

They're Not Supposed to Tell the Truth

They're really only there to tell us who is most likely to be overrated. They're not supposed to be indicative of one's likelihood to improve, and for the most part, OOPS is just supposed to be a fun little statistic.

That being said, it is important to remember that Jose Reyes had a great season...for a 21 year old. If he's still doing the same thing at age 26, I'll be ready to change his name to Luis Rivas.

As for your other points, they are all limited by the fact that Reyes just doesn't get on base. Is his speed a major asset? Sure is. But he's limiting its use by staying off the basepath as often as he is. Is his lack of power a huge deal? Not by itself, but coupled with an extreme lack of on-base ability, it's worrysome.

Reyes is a talented young player, who has done more at his age than all but a few players in the game's history. But he needs to improve; regardless of what you do, your standards and goals need to shift as you get older. Stalling, for Mr. Reyes, is failure.

by Alex Nelson on Dec 20, 2005 9:44 PM EST up reply actions

Reyes helps

ZaBlanc makes good points. Let me also add that another statistical blind spot is the number of times that Jose Reyes causes the other team to make errors. He hits slow but routine gb to short, takes off with his blazing speed towards first, and the SS rushes the play and makes a bad throw. Reyes ends up on 2b, and gets credited statistically with an 0-1 AB.

Also, don't forget his defense. He's a sparkplug.

Reyes will be a core player for the Mets for a long, long time.

by elliot on Dec 21, 2005 7:46 AM EST reply actions

But how many times did that happen?

Maybe twice? Certainly not enough to make up for the lack of patience at the plate.

I agree he's young and I agree we can hope he'll improve. Problem is, he should be batting 8th until he does improve, not 1st.

by JC @ Amazin' Avenue on Dec 21, 2005 9:13 AM EST up reply actions

On the subject of that article....

Notice who's on the All-Active OOPs team? None other than our very own brand new catcher, Paul Lo Duca.

Good thing we'll be batting these two 1-2 next year.

by JC @ Amazin' Avenue on Dec 21, 2005 9:21 AM EST reply actions

Not surprising

Lo Duca has long been overrated, touted for his "leadership", and the fact that he's a "winner" and a "gamer". He doesn't draw walks and he doesn't hit for power. He also can't steal bases, and isn't really much of a defensive catcher anymore. Good trade, though.

by Eric Simon on Dec 21, 2005 11:27 AM EST up reply actions

Reyes

The jury is still out on Jose Reyes. Yes, he could still turn into Luis Rivas, but you know who had a very similar OPS to Jose's at age 22? Miguel Tejada. So there's still reason to think Jose can be a very valuable player for the Mets.

At the same time, let's stop comparing him to David Wright, who is on the verge of superstardom. Not too many 22-year-olds in their first full season in the majors can say they put up .306/.388/.523.

Poor Fonzie. He was such a force on the 1999/2000 Mets. It's a shame to see him go into such a steep decline at age 32.

by Greenpoint Ian on Dec 21, 2005 10:30 AM EST reply actions

Raise your hand

if you believe Alfonzo is actually 32.

by peeder on Dec 21, 2005 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

Singles are better than walks!

PROVIDED, you're hitting with men on base. Which is more likely when you're not a leadoff hitter.

I'll take someone overrated in this way...low OBP and SLG compared to BA...and bat them where they are most likely to either move or bring home runners with their singles capability.

by peeder on Dec 21, 2005 11:41 AM EST reply actions