METS ACQUIRE LO DUCA; ERIC IS SAD
In probably the worst move of his tenure as the Mets GM, Omar Minaya has traded Minor League pitching prospect Gabriel Hernandez to the Marlins for Paul Lo Duca.
Hernandez will turn 20 in May and pitched tremendously the past two seasons before being promoted to Class A St. Lucie last season.
AGE LG ERA WHIP IP H SO BB HR 18 NYPL 0.00 0.67 3.0 2 6 0 0 18 GCL 1.09 0.74 49.2 25 58 12 1 19 SAL 2.43 0.96 92.2 59 99 30 4 19 FSL 5.74 1.37 42.1 48 32 10 1He ran into a bit of trouble in the Florida State League, giving up a ton of hits and watching his strikeout rate take a dive. His walk and homerun rates continued to be terrific, so it may be that he was just called up too quickly.
Here is what Paul Lo Duca has done with the stick since 2001, compared to the average NL catcher:
YEAR AVG cAVG OBP cOBP SLG cSLG 2001 .320 .249 .374 .316 .543 .390 2002 .281 .253 .330 .321 .402 .385 2003 .273 .259 .335 .328 .377 .401 2004 .258 .258 .314 .323 .376 .386 2005 .283 .250 .334 .315 .380 .382Lo Duca was outstanding in 2001, but has been something like an average catcher every season since then. He played in two pitchers parks -- Dodger Stadium and Dolphins Stadium -- so that surely had some affect on his hitting. He really doesn't hit for power at all, and he has managed to hold on to a reputation as a good hitting catcher despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
Lo Duca is owed $12.5 million over the next two seasons and he turns 34 in April. He doesn't throw particularly well, though he would be an upgrade over Mike Piazza's arm. The Mets are apparently including another minor league pitcher, though no word on that as of now. There is also no word on any cash coming back from the Marlins, though $8-10 million would make this deal more palatable.
There is some speculation -- mostly amongst myself and some friends -- that Omar Minaya acquired Lo Duca just to spin him off to Arizona in a deal for Javier Vazquez. Arizona was heavily interested in Lo Duca before the Mets pulled the trigger, and Vazquez has openly requested a trade to the East coast. This may be a way for the Mets to get Vazquez while holding on to Benson, who could then be used in another trade for relief help.
This looks like a bad trade at face value, considering that the Mets already had Ramon Castro, who is probably of comparable value to Lo Duca, at much less money, while much younger, and not requiring any prospects.
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Terrible Move
Lo Duca isn't a worthwhile acquisition for all the reasons you list above. I would have been able to accept a Molina or Hernandez signing, even if I would have disliked it. Instead, Minaya got an old, overpaid, defensively mediocre, offensively overrated good guy to catch, and he gave the Marlins our best (signed) pitching prospect for the second time in the past couple weeks. Oh, but at least we got a great leader. Cause we really need one at every position.
I can't believe this
Once again, we'll sit and watch Mets prospect pitchers pitch Florida into a championship.
This is an awful trade. Pitiful. Say it ain't so, Omar!
this is a bad trade
I was against aquiring Molina or Hernandez for cash, but at least then they could have said they were paying top dollar, yes, but to get an above-average player on both sides of the ball.
Hopefully Castro can get enough at bats to keep Paul fresh so that doesn't happen this year, but I can't say I like this trade. Hernandez was looking pretty good, and if they do spin LoDuca for Vasquez, they'll probably include still another prospect. I'd have rather seen them trade Benson and search for bullpen help elsewhere.
One thing you can argue
Standing up for Paul
#1 - Gaby Hernandez is too much to give up.
This is just ridiculous, have we fallen so in love with every single one of our prospects that we can't trade any of them. Granted, Petit was looking good but we got Delgado for him. But Gaby H, he got lit up in the Florida State League, hits per inning, ERA went up, so why are we freaking out? Did anyone have any definitive proof he would help us in the next 2 years? 3 years? 4 years? not like was on the fast track.
#2- LoDuca cost too much and is old.
For what we got LoDuca for, 2 years at 6.5 mil per, and for him to be our #7 hitter and give up about 35 games to Castro behind the plate, I think he is a great fit. From the get go I wasn't crazy about comitting 30 mil+ to either Hernandez or Molina. The only reason they would've commanded fat contracts is cause the FA crop of catchers is weak. Seriously, has anyone ever watched Ramon Hernandez and thought "Wow, let's sign that guy to a 5 year deal for 40 milliion!". And Molina, with the exception of hte playoffs this year, when has he ever been an above-average (not great) catcher? So why should we throw all that money at them?
by frischer50 on Dec 5, 2005 9:48 AM EST reply actions
Duca
But...
by 2QYankeehater on Dec 5, 2005 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
Agree
Quote
by 2QYankeehater on Dec 7, 2005 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
but:
My last word
And at twice the cost!
Duca
Piazza was 30 and already one of the few best hitting catchers of all time. Lo Duca is 34 and isn't even one of the few best hitting catchers in the league.
Duca
Trade
Ramon Castro's hitting stats at the Major League level have been artificially depressed due to circumstances beyond his control. He didn't compile a .222 career batting average as a starter in Florida. Hell, he didn't even compile it as a backup. He hit .222 AS A THIRD STRING CATCHER. He probably played three times a month. It's not that he wasn't good enough; it's just that his managers were stupid enough to waste a roster spot on a third catcher. His minor league numbers, while not extraordinary, suggest that he's perfectly capable of producing as he did for the Mets last season.
Second, it's far too early to say that Hernandez won't become anything just because he got lit up in the FSL. His K rate went down, which caused his hit rate to increase. However, his HR and BB rate stayed the same, which is a very good sign. He probably just needs to make an adjustment or two and he'll be fine. He's still a pretty good pitching prospect and was certainly the team's best with Petit gone.
Third, Lo Duca's offensive reputation, as Eric demonstrates is based entirely on his first season in the league. He doesn't hit terribly well, he doesn't play great defense, he's 34, and he's not durable. And Willie won't be able to spell him at first base as the Dodgers did. And let's face it, Lo Duca is famous for wearing down in the second half. Which I'm sure will go over big in New York.
Games played
Molina in 6 full seasons has played 130, 96, 122, 119, 97 and 119 games. So once he topped 130, and that was back in 2000.
As for Hernandez, who is coming off an injury, breaks down like this, since 2000. 143, 136, 136, 140, 111, 99. Now i know he got last year, but the prior year he only caught 111 games, meaning he missed a lot of action.
Also the more you read about the two catchers you hear how everyone believes they are pricing themselves way too high for the market.
So I ask, would you have rather we signed eitehr Molina or Hernandez to a bloated contract, gone for Toby Hall who the Rays wanted Heilman for, or done the LoDuca deal where we get him for 2 years at only 6.5 per and had to give up a Single A Prospect?
by frischer50 on Dec 5, 2005 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly
But if I had to choose one of them, I'd take Hernandez at the bloated contract. It would only be a $1.5 million or so difference per year, and he's the best defensive player available, and also probably the best offensive player. Not to mention youngest. Even if he does get hurt a little more, I'd rather have the better player. Despite the differences in playing time, Hernandez only earned 1 fewer Win Share (Not to mention that Hernandez was 3 WS above a bench level player compared to Lo Duca's 2 -- significant when you consider differences in playing time). In other words, he was roughly just as valuable despite playing 43 fewer games.
Yeah, I'd rather have Hernandez at a bloated price. But I'd really rather have Castro.
Gaby Hernandez not included?
Two lesser arms, and keeping the (current) best pitching prospect, would make this deal a lot more palatable to me, considering the huge salary relief the Mets are providing to the Fish.
Wow
by 2QYankeehater on Dec 5, 2005 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
Good point
by 2QYankeehater on Dec 5, 2005 8:50 PM EST reply actions
Yeah
Lou Gehrig Sat Behind Wally Pipp!
That's when said 100 at bats of .135 batting average happened. A good possible reason why: the rape charge. Might have been a distraction. And 100 at bats ain't considered a large sample size by anyone. Certainly not compared to the 209 at bats he got this year.
Well...
Aha!
yes
this trade is just the perfect debate
But the real question isn't whether LoDuca is better than Castro, right? It's whether he is better by enough to:
- merit the extra roughly 6 million he is making a season
- merit the loss of a prospect, Gaby Hernandez (who, true, is just a prospect, but a prospect is a significant and valuable commodity in the baseball market).
- merit the opportunity cost of not being able to use that money and that prospect for another player.
Also, I cherry pick stats too, you almost have to, but if you're going to pick out one stat, it's more accurate to use OPS than batting average, which is a misleading statistic that doesn't translate into real-world value to team the way that OPS does.


























