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METS ACQUIRE LO DUCA; ERIC IS SAD

In probably the worst move of his tenure as the Mets GM, Omar Minaya has traded Minor League pitching prospect Gabriel Hernandez to the Marlins for Paul Lo Duca.

Hernandez will turn 20 in May and pitched tremendously the past two seasons before being promoted to Class A St. Lucie last season.

AGE    LG     ERA    WHIP     IP    H       SO    BB    HR
18   NYPL    0.00    0.67    3.0    2     6     0     0
18    GCL    1.09    0.74   49.2   25    58    12     1
19    SAL    2.43    0.96   92.2   59    99    30     4
19    FSL    5.74    1.37   42.1   48    32    10     1
He ran into a bit of trouble in the Florida State League, giving up a ton of hits and watching his strikeout rate take a dive. His walk and homerun rates continued to be terrific, so it may be that he was just called up too quickly.

Here is what Paul Lo Duca has done with the stick since 2001, compared to the average NL catcher:

YEAR    AVG   cAVG   OBP    cOBP   SLG    cSLG
2001   .320   .249   .374   .316   .543   .390
2002   .281   .253   .330   .321   .402   .385
2003   .273   .259   .335   .328   .377   .401
2004   .258   .258   .314   .323   .376   .386
2005   .283   .250   .334   .315   .380   .382
Lo Duca was outstanding in 2001, but has been something like an average catcher every season since then. He played in two pitchers parks -- Dodger Stadium and Dolphins Stadium -- so that surely had some affect on his hitting. He really doesn't hit for power at all, and he has managed to hold on to a reputation as a good hitting catcher despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Lo Duca is owed $12.5 million over the next two seasons and he turns 34 in April. He doesn't throw particularly well, though he would be an upgrade over Mike Piazza's arm. The Mets are apparently including another minor league pitcher, though no word on that as of now. There is also no word on any cash coming back from the Marlins, though $8-10 million would make this deal more palatable.

There is some speculation -- mostly amongst myself and some friends -- that Omar Minaya acquired Lo Duca just to spin him off to Arizona in a deal for Javier Vazquez. Arizona was heavily interested in Lo Duca before the Mets pulled the trigger, and Vazquez has openly requested a trade to the East coast. This may be a way for the Mets to get Vazquez while holding on to Benson, who could then be used in another trade for relief help.

This looks like a bad trade at face value, considering that the Mets already had Ramon Castro, who is probably of comparable value to Lo Duca, at much less money, while much younger, and not requiring any prospects.

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the other shoe
the other pitcher better suck!
Pedro offers you his protection.

by pj on Dec 4, 2005 8:42 PM EST reply actions  

Laugh
LOL! That just made me laugh.

by DavidNYC on Dec 4, 2005 11:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Terrible Move
I really don't like this trade.  It's the first move that I really dislike that Omar has made since he took over.

Lo Duca isn't a worthwhile acquisition for all the reasons you list above.  I would have been able to accept a Molina or Hernandez signing, even if I would have disliked it.  Instead, Minaya got an old, overpaid, defensively mediocre, offensively overrated good guy to catch, and he gave the Marlins our best (signed) pitching prospect for the second time in the past couple weeks.  Oh, but at least we got a great leader.  Cause we really need one at every position.

by Alex Nelson on Dec 4, 2005 9:20 PM EST reply actions  

I can't believe this
Gaby Hernandez? Who else did we have in the wings after Petit?

Once again, we'll sit and watch Mets prospect pitchers pitch Florida into a championship.

This is an awful trade. Pitiful. Say it ain't so, Omar!

by peeder on Dec 5, 2005 12:35 AM EST reply actions  

this is a bad trade
LoDuca is a cool guy and everything, and he hails from the same borough as I do, so I don't want to rip on him, but for $6-6.5 million a year, he gives you worse defense than Castro and basically comparable offense  (I am cherry-picking, but LoDuca 2005 OPS - .714, Castro 2005 OPS .756).  Also, LoDuca has a career history of collapsing offensively in the second half (career post-break OPS - .687.  As you say, Paul is an upgrade over Mikey P. in the throwing-arm department, but is basically mediocre or worse defensively.  

I was against aquiring Molina or Hernandez for cash, but at least then they could have said they were paying top dollar, yes, but to get an above-average player on both sides of the ball.  

Hopefully Castro can get enough at bats to keep Paul fresh so that doesn't happen this year, but I can't say I like this trade.  Hernandez was looking pretty good, and if they do spin LoDuca for Vasquez, they'll probably include still another prospect.  I'd have rather seen them trade Benson and search for bullpen help elsewhere.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 5, 2005 8:50 AM EST reply actions  

One thing you can argue
is you ought to strengthen your own division right up to the level you're certain you'll top each one of them head-to-head; they will consume each other and leave you the victor.

by peeder on Dec 5, 2005 8:53 AM EST reply actions  

Standing up for Paul
Personally I like the deal a lot and I'd like to nitpick at some of the points people are making against it.

#1 - Gaby Hernandez is too much to give up.  
This is just ridiculous, have we fallen so in love with every single one of our prospects that we can't trade any of them.  Granted, Petit was looking good but we got Delgado for him.  But Gaby H, he got lit up in the Florida State League, hits per inning, ERA went up, so why are we freaking out?  Did anyone have any definitive proof he would help us in the next 2 years?  3 years?  4 years?  not like was on the fast track.

#2- LoDuca cost too much and is old.
For what we got LoDuca for, 2 years at 6.5 mil per, and for him to be our #7 hitter and give up about 35 games to Castro behind the plate, I think he is a great fit.  From the get go I wasn't crazy about comitting 30 mil+ to either Hernandez or Molina.  The only reason they would've commanded fat contracts is cause the FA crop of catchers is weak.  Seriously, has anyone ever watched Ramon Hernandez and thought "Wow, let's sign that guy to a 5 year deal for 40 milliion!".  And Molina, with the exception of hte playoffs this year, when has he ever been an above-average (not great) catcher?  So why should we throw all that money at them?

Kaz Matsui has entered "The Cedeno Zone" - Ted Robinson

by frischer50 on Dec 5, 2005 9:48 AM EST reply actions  

Duca
I think the biggest problem with this deal is that Lo Duca doesn't really represent a significant upgrade over Ramon Castro, whom the Mets already had at a very reasonable salary ($500K). It doesn't make a lot of sense to give up a very good prospect and pay $6M+ for the next two years for someone who is not discernably better than a guy you already had.

by Eric Simon on Dec 5, 2005 10:02 AM EST up reply actions  

But...
Castro will likely wear down as well.  LoDuca does get worn but he still plays a good amount of games year to year.  LoDuca is a good leader and he is proven that he can handle a pitching staff well.  And it was said that he was the "heart and soul" of the Dodgers at that time.  He brings some pretty good stuff to the table.
2QYankeehater: Diehard Mets fan, huge Yankeehater, and worshipper of David Wright.

by 2QYankeehater on Dec 5, 2005 8:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Agree
I gotta go with Frischer.  Although not really a scary hitter anymore, he's still a tough out and a good situational batter.  And by all accounts he's a good pitcher's catcher and a good clubhouse guy.  He does hit into his share of DPs, but without Minky on the team we can afford a few.  And I can't worry about the money until the Mets show some sign, any sign, that they are running out of cash.  
"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Dec 7, 2005 9:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Quote
I like the quote that says Matsui has entered the Cedeno Zone! LOL
2QYankeehater: Diehard Mets fan, huge Yankeehater, and worshipper of David Wright.

by 2QYankeehater on Dec 7, 2005 5:35 PM EST up reply actions  

but:
LoDuca 34; Castro is 30.  LoDuca is at the point in a catcher's career when his batting will begin to decline steeply, and his career numbers are no longer a fair prediction of how he's likely to hit now.

by anonymous on Dec 5, 2005 11:03 AM EST reply actions  

My last word
Paul LoDuca = Dougie Mintcabbage with a Mask.

And at twice the cost!

by peeder on Dec 5, 2005 11:39 AM EST reply actions  

Duca
And remember the last Dodger catcher we got through Florida worked out pretty well for the team.

Piazza was 30 and already one of the few best hitting catchers of all time. Lo Duca is 34 and isn't even one of the few best hitting catchers in the league.

by Eric Simon on Dec 5, 2005 12:05 PM EST reply actions  

Duca
Far too many players w/o track records have one good year and never approach it again. Are you talking about Castro or Lo Duca? It seems to me that comment describes both of them.

by Eric Simon on Dec 5, 2005 3:20 PM EST reply actions  

Trade
A couple things some people above are forgetting here:

Ramon Castro's hitting stats at the Major League level have been artificially depressed due to circumstances beyond his control.  He didn't compile a .222 career batting average as a starter in Florida.  Hell, he didn't even compile it as a backup.  He hit .222 AS A THIRD STRING CATCHER.  He probably played three times a month. It's not that he wasn't good enough; it's just that his managers were stupid enough to waste a roster spot on a third catcher.  His minor league numbers, while not extraordinary, suggest that he's perfectly capable of producing as he did for the Mets last season.

Second, it's far too early to say that Hernandez won't become anything just because he got lit up in the FSL.  His K rate went down, which caused his hit rate to increase.  However, his HR and BB rate stayed the same, which is a very good sign.  He probably just needs to make an adjustment or two and he'll be fine.  He's still a pretty good pitching prospect and was certainly the team's best with Petit gone.

Third, Lo Duca's offensive reputation, as Eric demonstrates is based entirely on his first season in the league.  He doesn't hit terribly well, he doesn't play great defense, he's 34, and he's not durable.  And Willie won't be able to spell him at first base as the Dodgers did.  And let's face it, Lo Duca is famous for wearing down in the second half.  Which I'm sure will go over big in New York.

by Alex Nelson on Dec 5, 2005 3:47 PM EST reply actions  

Games played
Granted, LoDuca wears down, but let's look at what Molina and Hernadez do, since they were our prime targets, and would've cost more money for more years.

Molina in 6 full seasons has played 130, 96, 122, 119, 97 and 119 games.  So once he topped 130, and that was back in 2000.

As for Hernandez, who is coming off an injury, breaks down like this, since 2000.  143, 136, 136, 140, 111, 99.  Now i know he got last year, but the prior year he only caught 111 games, meaning he missed a lot of action.

Also the more you read about the two catchers you hear how everyone believes they are pricing themselves way too high for the market.

So I ask, would you have rather we signed eitehr Molina or Hernandez to a bloated contract, gone for Toby Hall who the Rays wanted Heilman for, or done the LoDuca deal where we get him for 2 years at only 6.5 per and had to give up a Single A Prospect?

Kaz Matsui has entered "The Cedeno Zone" - Ted Robinson

by frischer50 on Dec 5, 2005 4:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Honestly
I'd rather have none of them.  This is really an issue of spending $13 million and 2 prospects for a player we didn't need.

But if I had to choose one of them, I'd take Hernandez at the bloated contract.  It would only be a $1.5 million or so difference per year, and he's the best defensive player available, and also probably the best offensive player.  Not to mention youngest.  Even if he does get hurt a little more, I'd rather have the better player.  Despite the differences in playing time, Hernandez only earned 1 fewer Win Share (Not to mention that Hernandez was 3 WS above a bench level player compared to Lo Duca's 2 -- significant when you consider differences in playing time).  In other words, he was roughly just as valuable despite playing 43 fewer games.

Yeah, I'd rather have Hernandez at a bloated price.  But I'd really rather have Castro.

by Alex Nelson on Dec 5, 2005 8:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Gaby Hernandez not included?
Rotoworld now says that the trade was LoDuca for two players to be named later, and that Hernandez's involvement is not confirmed.
The trade is official, but it hasn't been confirmed that right-hander Gaby Hernandez, perhaps the Mets' top remaining pitching prospect, is being included. Lo Duca is expected to remain with the Mets rather than be included in a Javier Vazquez deal. Hopefully, he'll get a little more rest than usual to prevent him from wearing down. We're not at all certain that he's a significantly better player than Ramon Castro. Lo Duca will likely hit lower in the lineup than he's used to, so don't expect big fantasy numbers. Dec. 5 - 5:54 pm et

Two lesser arms, and keeping the (current) best pitching prospect, would make this deal a lot more palatable to me, considering the huge salary relief the Mets are providing to the Fish.

by anonymous on Dec 5, 2005 6:59 PM EST reply actions  

Wow
I can't get that happy yet, because now we don't know who was traded for him.
2QYankeehater: Diehard Mets fan, huge Yankeehater, and worshipper of David Wright.

by 2QYankeehater on Dec 5, 2005 8:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Good point
And they are not even stars.  Burnett can't be consistent and Dotel has SERIOUS injury problems right now, along with the fact that he also isn't consistent.
2QYankeehater: Diehard Mets fan, huge Yankeehater, and worshipper of David Wright.

by 2QYankeehater on Dec 5, 2005 8:50 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah
i pretty much with everyone here, i don't see loduca being that big a difference maker where you give a legit pitching prospect to get him, this has jeff wilpon written all over it
its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win

by DoctorK16 on Dec 5, 2005 8:57 PM EST reply actions  

Lou Gehrig Sat Behind Wally Pipp!
You can't judge players by who's ahead of them on the depth chart.  It's not the way we evaluate talent.  Oh, and Mike Redmond's a career .287 hitter with an on base percentage of nearly .350.  Oh, and the Marlins traded him to the Twins because they thought Ramon Castro was good enough to handle the starting catching duties.

That's when said 100 at bats of .135 batting average happened.  A good possible reason why: the rape charge.  Might have been a distraction.  And 100 at bats ain't considered a large sample size by anyone.  Certainly not compared to the 209 at bats he got this year.

by Alex Nelson on Dec 5, 2005 10:55 PM EST reply actions  

Well...
Apparently batting average is the be-all-end-all again.  Thank God.  If only we could get rid of this pesky science fad too, we'd be right as rain.

by Alex Nelson on Dec 5, 2005 10:59 PM EST reply actions  

Aha!
I knew Omar had an intelligent design for putting together his ball club!

by anonymous on Dec 5, 2005 11:27 PM EST up reply actions  

yes
His moves are too complex and mysterious to be the product of some random evolutionary process that could be rationally understood.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 6, 2005 8:59 AM EST up reply actions  

this trade is just the perfect debate
That will probably never end between the moneyball/sabermetrics people and the old guard/makeup people.  

But the real question isn't whether LoDuca is better than Castro, right?  It's whether he is better by enough to:

  1.  merit the extra roughly 6 million he is making a season
  2.  merit the loss of a prospect, Gaby Hernandez (who, true, is just a prospect, but a prospect is a significant and valuable commodity in the baseball market).
  3.  merit the opportunity cost of not being able to use that money and that prospect for another player.
Maybe LoDuca is, all things considered, a better player than Castro.  But I'd suggest that he's not better by enough to merit the trade, the salary, and the opportunity cost. (Just yesterday, there was an article about the Mets (and I can't remember the source) stating that for the Mets to make a big move now, they'll have to first clear salary.  That could hurt their chances to upgrade the rotation or the bullpen (I hope it doesn't.)  One of the central tenets to Moneyball, if I recall, is that you don't pay a lot or give a lot for name players who don't produce at levels far beyond replacement level - because you're essentially paying for the name.  

Also, I cherry pick stats too, you almost have to, but if you're going to pick out one stat, it's more accurate to use OPS than batting average, which is a misleading statistic that doesn't translate into real-world value to team the way that OPS does.  

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Dec 6, 2005 9:13 AM EST reply actions  

You're right
My mistake.  But the Marlins did choose to start Castro at the start of the 2004 season over Redmond.  So clearly, in the eyes of the Marlins front office, Castro was ahead of Redmond on the depth chart.

by Alex Nelson on Dec 6, 2005 3:03 PM EST reply actions  

oh, snap
No you dint!
"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Dec 7, 2005 3:30 PM EST reply actions  

how weird is that
the marlins have had 2 nono in 12 years and we haven't had any, wtf?
its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win

by DoctorK16 on Dec 7, 2005 10:36 PM EST reply actions  

yeah, but
their players wear Teal. The perfecto and/or the no-no will come. I am hoping for 40 more years on this planet and I am certain we'll see one.
Pedro offers you his protection.

by pj on Dec 8, 2005 9:36 AM EST up reply actions  

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