Mets to Get Ishii?

by DavidNYC on Mar 19, 2005 2:57 PM EST Comment 15 comments

Sorry for three diaries in a row, but this seems like important news, given the flurry of discussion around here lately about the Mets' rotation. Looks like help might be on the way for Los Mets:

The Mets, in need of a fifth starter after losing Steve Trachsel to a back injury for at least three months, are in serious negotiations with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the left-hander Kazuhisa Ishii, according to a person close to the talks.

The Mets would trade the backup catcher Jason Phillips for Ishii, the person said. Phillips is hitting a team-leading .550 this spring (11 for 20), with a home run, four doubles and nine runs batted in. He slumped badly last season, after a solid first season with the Mets.

The Dodgers are badly in need of a starting catcher after trading Paul Lo Duca last season.

Ishii, 13-8 with a 4.71 earned run average last season, pitched 172 innings and started 31 games. But he has averaged nearly 102 walks in his three seasons with the Dodgers.

So, two questions: First, who would the Mets' backup catcher be if they trade Phillips? And second, can one of you stat-heads do one of those neat workups on Ishii's past numbers & current projections?

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Ishii

First off, Ramon Castro will undoubtedly be the backup for the Mets if Phillips is traded. I've been hoping the Mets would hold onto Phillips, because lord knows Piazza ain't so durable anymore. Randolph has been saying all spring that he'd rather have a backup who can field and throw well rather than hit, so I don't think Phillips was ever really considered likely to stick around. Castro is a decent backup catcher who has had some off field issues (a rape charge), but he did show a lot of promise with the bat in 2003 (.937 OPS in 53 AB), albeit in a small sample. He's a pretty good receiver otherwise. Phillips, who was probably the most unlucky player in baseball last year (check out Tom Meagher's latest column at the Hardball Times), is a much better hitter than his .218 average last year. I don't have my projections handy right now, but when I get some of them, I'll be glad to post them. A quick answer is that Ishii has serious control issues and a declining strikeout rate (only 5.19/9IP last year). If Peterson can fix his control issues, and if Ishii can get that K rate back up to around 8, he could be a very effective pitcher. That's a big if though.

by Alex Nelson on Mar 19, 2005 7:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Update

I can't actually edit my diary, so I'll do the update here: Mets Acquire Ishii for Phillips.

I am reminded of the number of times in Moneyball that Billy Beane utterly fleeced Steve Phillips when the latter was still GM of the Mets. Indeed, it seemed that Phillips' name came up more often that any other in Lewis' book - and always on the losing end of a Beane trade.

Now Paul DePodesta, Beane's #1 protege and GM of the Dodgers, has preyed on the Mets' pitching weakness to pry away a player (Jason Phillips) about whom I am sure DePodesta knows something that Minaya doesn't.

As I said in an earlier comment, the Mets should have been prepared for an eventuality such as this (ie, losing a pitcher). It seems that they weren't, and now our backstop situation is indeed rickety. What happens when Mike Piazza goes on the DL? Sigh.

by DavidNYC on Mar 20, 2005 6:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Who's our new backup backstop?

I'm concerned about Piazza then...

by peeder on Mar 21, 2005 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE: New Backup

Ramon Castro becomes the Mets new backup catcher. He is purportedly a good defensive backstop, and has some pop.

Jason Phillips was having a great Spring, so his value was probably as high as it was going to get. He wasn't going to see a whole lot of playing time, so for the Mets to get a decent big league pitcher in exchange for a backup catcher, Omar Minaya did a pretty good job selling high.

by Eric Simon on Mar 21, 2005 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Conspiracy question

So goggles was doing so well, and I have a question...I'm pretty certain regular season ball ins't fixed. But could you fix spring training ball? I mean, does it really matter?

And so can FO staff get together and say "Hey I want to move this guy...give him BP fastballs to crush in our spring games and you give me a guy who'll do the same...just from our established pitchers of course..."

Anyway, I can't resist a few conspiracy theories now and then. Not to soil our pastime of course.

by peeder on Mar 21, 2005 6:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

money wash?

Your analogy to those Steve Phillips deals is right on the money(ball). Still, the cash that the Dodgers threw in evens the deal out somewhat. Though Ishii's not anybody's idea of pitching greatness, getting him for $1.15 million is not a bad deal for a year. And what the heck, maybe Rick Peterson's mojo will actually make one of the Mets' pitchers better this year the way it's supposed to. The team's backup-catcher spot is now a complete offensive hole (aka Ramon Castro), so Piazza had better stay healthy. This sure makes the Vance Wilson move look like a big mistake in retrospect; he was a much better backup than I suspect Castro will be.

At least, you have to feel good for Jason Phillips, who has probably deserved to start somewhere for the last two years and has been the victim of bad luck and an organization that doesn't understand his strengths.

by anonymous on Mar 20, 2005 9:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Salary

I didn't realize the Dodgers were paying part of Ishii's salary, so as the commenter below observes, this does make the deal look better from the Mets' perspective.

But the catching corps is really woeful now. I mean, yeah, we still have Piazza, who may surprise us with a decent year. But he's just as likely, if not moreso, to get hurt. And then we have Ramon Castro... and who is his backup?

BTW, what ever happened to Justin (Jason?) Huber? Is he still with the organization?

Sure, I feel happy for Jason Phillips, but it's a little like LaMont Jordan and the Jets: Yeah, I want the guy to have the chance to shine, but I'd still rather have him on my team as a backup.

by DavidNYC on Mar 21, 2005 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huber

Huber was traded to the Royals for 3B Jose Bautista who was then shipped off to the Pirates as part of the Benson deal. Considering the Royals acquired Bautista, a Rule 5 pick, off waivers, it was a ridiculous deal from the Mets' standpoint. So, Huber's gone.

Mike Jacobs is now the organization's top C prospect, but he missed substantial time last year after a great 2003.

by Alex Nelson on Mar 21, 2005 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Trades

So you're saying the Royals, who only had to give up a roster slot for Bautista in the first place (b/c they got him in the Rule V draft), nonetheless netted Huber for him?

That does make the Mets look a little foolish (did they even try to get Bautista off waivers in the first place?), but I'm not sure it's a fair criticism. I mean, when you want a guy, and you think he can improve your team, does it really matter how another team acquired him, vis-a-vis the particular trade you want to make?

by DavidNYC on Mar 21, 2005 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bautista

Fair enough, but Bautista is hardly worth a Justin Huber. In fact the Pirates were the only team that really valued him, considering that after he was taken by Baltimore in the Rule 5 Draft, he was waived twice before landing in Kansas City. I just feel he could have been easily had for a lot less.

by Alex Nelson on Mar 21, 2005 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Merits

Ah, indeed - on the merits, it seems like a craptacular trade. But hey, par for the Mets course, I say.

by DavidNYC on Mar 21, 2005 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Money

Ishii's actually owed a 2.2 million dollar buyout if his option is not picked up. So he's really earning $5.4 million total this year. I haven't heard how much is included, but in all honesty, it's not that bad a deal. Phillips was really just going to back up Piazza, but I still would have liked better insurance if Piazza gets hurt again.

A quick look at Ishii's ratio's (all per 9 IP) over his career:

Yr ERA K BB H HR G/F
2002 4.27 8.36 6.19 8.01 1.17 1.04
2003 3.86 8.57 6.18 7.90 0.98 0.85
2004 4.71 5.18 5.13 8.11 1.10 0.64

It looks like last year Ishii gave up trying to strike batters out and pitch to contact in an effort to cut down on his walks. He did cut out 1 walk per 9 IP but that really didn't help much since he also struck out 3+ fewer batters per 9. This caught up to him, especially after the All-Star break as some of those fly balls became home runs, something that is very dangerous for a pitcher who walks a lot of batters. Shea's a good place for a flyball pitcher though, and Rick Peterson claims he can help him find his release point to help his control. As long as he starts striking out batters again, he'll be passable, and if he combines that with improved control he could be very effective.

by Alex Nelson on Mar 20, 2005 9:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs