2005 Preview: Third Base

by Eric Simon on Mar 9, 2005 11:19 PM EST

2004 METS THIRD-BASEMEN

AB BA OBP SLG OPS
David Wright 263 .293 .332 .525 .857
Ty Wigginton 209 .249 .303 .440 .743
Todd Zeile 155 .226 .305 .355 .659
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All Mets 3B 632 .261 .314 .453 .767
NL 3B 630 .276 .339 .452 .791

David. Wright. Is. Awesome. Did I mention he just turned 22? He was also 6-for-6 in stolen bases in 2004. He slugged an astonishing .525 last year in about a half-season. Do you know how many 21-year-old third-basemen have slugged .525? That would be five. Ever. The others?

SLG
1 Albert Pujols .610
2 Jimmie Foxx .548
3 Bob Horner .547
4 Eddie Mathews .541

Ever heard of any of those guys? Pujols you already know as the second-best hitter in the game today. Foxx and Mathews have 1046 homeruns and two hall-of-fame plaques between them. Bob Horner is the only one who wasn't an outstanding player, though he won the rookie of the year in 1978 and was generally considered a very good offensive third-baseman.

Of course, none of this means that David Wright will have an outstanding career, but it does show you the kind of company he's rolling with already. Here's what some other current third-basemen did in their age 21 seasons:

AB BA OBP SLG OPS
Adrian Beltre 510 .290 .360 .475 .835
Hank Blalock 147 .211 .306 .327 .632
Eric Chavez 356 .247 .333 .427 .760
Troy Glaus 165 .218 .280 .291 .571
Aramis Ramirez 254 .256 .293 .402 .695 (Age 22)
Scott Rolen 130 .254 .322 .400 .722

Wright was way ahead of all of these guys except for Beltre, who put up similar numbers over more at-bats. Beltre struggled mightily over the next three seasons before exploding last season with an OPS of 1.017.

Looking back a bit further: Mike Schmidt didn't hit the bigs until he was 22. Wade Boggs was 24 when he broke into the league.

Wright also has the perfect attitude, not only for New York, but for big-league baseball in general. He's also been picking up pointers from Straw this Spring Training, per Mets.com:

"Since the moment he walked into the clubhouse, he's been great to everyone, especially me," Wright said. "We talked about different situations, and there are a lot of similarities between the way I feel and how he used to feel in terms of a mental approach. It's a tremendous asset to have him here, because he's so approachable. He genuinely cares when he speaks to you and that says volumes about him.

"I'm standing there and I'm telling myself that I'm talking hitting with Darryl Strawberry. We all know what kind of career he had and for him to share some stuff with me, maybe some of it will rub off. At first, I was a little in awe because I remembered the home runs he hit into the upper deck at Shea Stadium and off the scoreboard. He was a superstar and a hero growing up. I tried to emulate him when I was younger, with my hands dropping and the big leg kick."

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I don't think I've ever had more confidence that a player the Mets developed is going to reach every last ounce of his potential. Most of the greatest Met prospects have been pitchers, some of whom became all that (Seaver, Ryan, Koosman), some of whom became some or most of it (Gooden, Wilson), and some of whom busted (Gentry, Pulsipher). With pitchers, you can't ever be sure.

Among position players, I always thought Darrrrryl would be great -- as he was -- but I also recognized that he was a high-maintenance guy with some issues in his game (relatively minor) and his make-up (relatively major). The others who became great typically became great elsewhere (Otis, Singleton), or they became great somewhat even though you wouldn't have been certain it was gonna happen (Alfonzo, Hundley -- both of whom were great only for a short time anyway).

David Wright? He's going to be great, he's going to be great for us, he's going to be great for a long time, and he's going to be great N-O-W.

by Sam M on Mar 10, 2005 2:02 PM EST reply actions

Baseball's 3B Prospects

Given the wealth of top-shelf minor league/ young major league talent in baseball right now, where would everyone rank our own David Wright among this list of young, talented 3B's:

Andy Marte, Braves
Ian Stewart, Rockies
Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
Dallas McPherson, Angels
Eric Duncan, Yankees
Hank Blalock, Rangers
Sean Burroughs, Padres
Mark Teahen, Royals
Kevin Youkalis, Red Sox

I don't know a whole lot about Stewart, Marte, or Encarnation, but all 3 of them cracked the Foxsports.com's top 10 MLB prospects list. Burroughs and Youkalis seem to be settling in as a good, not great 3B, while Blalock seems to be the best of the bunch right now with McPherson/Wright not too far behind. Thoughts?

by gene on Mar 11, 2005 12:27 PM EST reply actions

Young Third Basemen

A very interesting question. I love Marte and Stewart, and I would probably say they have a better upside than Wright. The problem is that there is no guarantee that Marte will stay at 3rd (the Braves are committing to Chipper at the hot corner), and I do want to see a bit more of Stewart at higher levels.

Encarnacion is a bit raw, and I'm not convinced he will hit for the power Wright will.

On the other hand, I love McPherson's power but I'm not sure his plate discipline will be good enough to be as good a player as Wright. In AAA his walks went way down and his strikeouts have been a problem.

Duncan, like McPherson, has big time power but needs to improve his plate discipline (though it's gotten better) and defense, and there's a good chance he could eventually be moved to 1B. Probably has a chance to become a Troy Glaus type.

Blalock's already a great player, and I would say he's certainly the best of the bunch. He's really set the bar pretty high, and I don't even think we've seen the best from him yet.

Burroughs has been something of a disappointment. He hits for average, gets on base at decent clip but really hits for no power. Youkalis is in the same boat, really with some slight differences. Teahen projects similarly, I would think.

Blalock's really ahead of the bunch, and then I'd probably rank them Marte, Wright, McPherson, Stewart, Duncan, Encarnacion, Burroughs, Youkalis, Teahen.

What could make this list even more interesting is when you also factor in SS who could wind up at 3B like Joel Guzman (LA) or B.J. Upton (TB).

by Alex Nelson on Mar 11, 2005 1:13 PM EST up reply actions

Blalock/McPherson/Wright

Let me start with McPherson. In my view, he is likelier to be a bust of historic proportions than David Wright's rival for status as the Next Great Third Baseman. In 2003, McPherson struck out 104 times in 394 ABs, while drawing 60 walks. That's actually not too bad, until you consider that this was in A and AA, and he was already 23 years old.

Forward to 2004, where things get ugly. Moving up the ladder has exposed McPherson's vulnerability. As a 24 year old in AA and AAA, McPherson struck out 169 times in 521 ABs. Yikes! His walk rate also dropped substantialy, as he drew fewer walks (57) in many more ABs. I am willing to say that no player is a prospect to be a great star with that K/W ratio in the minor leagues, especially not if he doesn't have the excuse of being especially young for his level. McPherson isn't too old to be a prospect, but he's too old to be striking out like that and still be thought of as something special.

He does have light's out power, and that shouldn't be underestimated as a virtue. But I am very confident that David Wright will be a vastly superior player to him. Wright has been a better all-around hitter, at younger ages, and with far more projectable skills. In short, always favor the guy without a hole in his game you could sneak an elephant through.

Blalock later.

by Sam M on Mar 11, 2005 12:35 PM EST reply actions

Blalock/McPherson/Wright (Part II)

Blalock, unlike McPherson, is a worthy rival for our Mr. Wright. The guy has two full killer seasons under his belt, in both of which he had OBPs over .350 and SLG% at or above .500.

But (you knew there was going to be a "but," didn't you?) . . . check out his home/road splits:

In Arlington, his career looks like this:

.315/.388/.555/.942 -- 36 HR in 669 ABs.

On the road, they look like this:

.242/.306/.426/.732 -- 28 HR in 669 ABs.

Yes, that's a .242 BA and a .306 OBP. And an OPS over 200 points lower than what he does at home.

If I had Blalock, that would worry me. Not enough, mind you, that I wouldn't love to have him. But those splits -- combined with the fact that Wright is two years younger than Blalock -- lead me to conclude Wright has the greater ceiling and is the better bet to be a consistently great player.

by Sam M on Mar 11, 2005 12:55 PM EST reply actions