Pedro - What's Your Take?

Well, after his start against the Brewers, giving up only 3 hits but 5 runs, Pedro said he felt "draggy." That start was a little weird, as he looked excellent except for the two innings in which the Brewers scored off of him. Today, 5 hits, 5 runs, 4 earned. On the one hand, I didn't like what I saw out there today. On the other hand, I suppose you could say it was mainly one batter (Grudzielanek) that really nailed him. But I think that would be rationalizing away a poor start. He definitely didn't have his "A" game today.

Last season, which was certainly uncharacteristic, after 8 starts, Pedro's ERA was 3.73; he'd had 6 quality starts, and the Red Sox were 5-1 in those. Pedro had 2 bad starts (one against Baltimore, the other against Texas). One of the quality starts was a game against the Yankess (whose offense was struggling at the time), in which he went 7 innings and gave up no runs.

This season, after 8 starts, Pedro's ERA is 3.38. He's had 5 quality starts, and the Mets are 4-1 in those. Only Looper (in the 1st game of the season) prevented that from being a 5-0 record in Pedro's quality starts. He's had one start that I'd call mediocre (against Atlanta), where he gave up 4 runs, and we lost. The start against the Brewers was weird. It's hard for me to call it bad, since his command/control looked really good, i.e. he was hitting his spots, throwing a lot of strikes, and innings 1-3, 5-6 were perfect. I read one story in which the writer said something along the lines that few pitchers could look so good while giving up 5 runs. Still, you certainly don't expect him to give up 5 runs to the Brewers. But at least the Mets won that one.

I'd characterize today's start as bad. Not a total stinker or a blowout, but not what I want to see from Pedro. Like last year, he's starting to give up too many homers. Take away those 2 homers today, and we get a win.

Let's look at 2003. That year, Pedro only gave up 7 home runs all season. After 8 starts, his ERA was 3.15. He'd had 6 quality starts and 2 bad ones, one really bad in which Grady Little left him in to give up 10 ER. In his 6 quality starts, he had 1 game in which he gave up no runs period (against Tampa Bay), and 2 other starts where he gave up no earned runs (once against Tampa, once against Texas).

One of my concerns this year is that he hasn't had a game yet where the opponent hasn't scored. That's not Pedro-like. Not that a 3.38 ERA is bad after 8 starts. But considering he's given up so few hits, you'd think his ERA would be microscopic, and we'd be 8-0 in his starts, assuming everyone else (bullpen, offense, defense) does their job. I'd obviously prefer that those hits be harmless and not score any runs. As it stands, we're now 5-3 in Pedro starts. That's very good, but 6-2 is what I would have expected, again, assuming everyone else on the team does their job.

Again, I'm not trying to slam Pedro. He's been my all-time favorite pitcher for awhile now. I don't expect him to be perfect, but I doubt that he's happy with his performance today. Let's hope he can do a better job of keeping runners from scoring and keeping the ball in the park.

If you haven't already read Damien Heath's brief study over at metsgeek.com, it's very interesting and relevant to this post.

P.S. I may be prematurely concerned -- after all, it's only 8 starts. Mainly I'm wondering what the rest of you think. Also, I realize I focused a lot on ERA, and there are many other stats/factors associated with evaluating pitching performance. But this wasn't intended to be an official analysis. Like I said, I'm just wondering what others think.