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Open Thread: John Sickels - All Questions Answered

Okay everybody, here we go. John Sickels of Minor League Ball will be here at noon and will spend an hour answering as many questions as he can about the Mets' farm system, prospects, etc.

You can start posting your questions now and John will post his responses as soon as he gets here.

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Re: Mets pitching prospects
Two questions: 1) what are the ETA's and projected rotation slots for Petit and Humber; 2) who will be availiable for the Mets with the 9th pick and who do you think they should draft?

by wrightfan on May 25, 2005 11:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

petit
I think Petit projects as a number three guy, Humber a number two. ETA would be 2006 for both of them I think, although it may not be until 2007 that they hold a slot full-time. Always hard to tell with pitchers.

9th pick...a lot of that depends on what happens with Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver. There is a lot of stuff still in flux for the draft. I'd pick Craig Hansen if I were the Mets, but he may not be available by that point.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jason Scobie and the upcoming draft
  1. Scobie has been having a good year. What kind of "stuff" does he have?
  2. Since the Mets don't have a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Do you see them throwing alot of money at a hard to sign player in order to compensate?

by Homerfan on May 25, 2005 11:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

2
2) yes, that's possible. There are rumors that they may throw a lot of money at Stephen Drew if he is still available. Again, it all depends on what happens at the top of the draft. It is possible that someone like Hochevar or Pelfrey may fall farther than people think.

Scobie: the time I saw him, he was throwing 89-91, but that was a couple of years ago. I'm not sure what his breaking ball is.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mike Carp
This question is from OFF who could not be here for the chat...

What have you heard about Mike Carp? Are the comparisons to a left-handed David Wright valid, or is it too soon to say? (Carp is hitting .258/.377/.586 for Low-A Hagerstown. He was hitting over .300 a week ago but has been in a big slump).

by Eric Simon on May 25, 2005 11:29 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

carp
No, there's no way that Carp is as good as Wright. He has power from the left side and is just 18, and there's potential there certainly. But he was a 9th round pick, not a 1st, and he doesn't have Wright's defensive skills.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jose Sanchez
What can you tell us about Jose Sanchez? He seems to be pitching well this year.

by Homerfan on May 25, 2005 11:33 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

sanchez
21-year-old Venezuelan. I don't have a current velocity report, but last year his stuff was rated as mediocre. He does have excellent command, but it remains to be seen if his stuff is good enough for him to thrive in Double-A>

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Milledge
If Lastings Milledge is successful, is he expected to be a power hitting outfielder?  Or something more like Juan Pierre?  Or something in between?
"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on May 25, 2005 11:34 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

milledge
Milledge has a LOT more power than someone like Pierre. If he develops as the Mets believe, he'd be a .280-.300 hitter, 20-25 homers, 20-25 steals.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Prospect to be traded
What top prospect(s), if any, do you expect to be dealt in the next 1-2 years, because the don't fit into the Mets plan?  I'm wondering if there are any 3B, SS, or CF prospects to be dealt, since those are the positions we seem set at for the forseeable future.
"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on May 25, 2005 11:37 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

trade
Well, again that is a very hard thing to predict.
People get injured. . .needs change, etc.

This may sound like heresy, but you might see Milledge on the trade block at some point.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mets 2B
Between Baldiris and Keppinger, who do you think has the better chance of unseating Matsui as the team's 2B and why?

by wrightfan on May 25, 2005 11:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

neither
Well, probably neither. Baldiris can hit for average and get on base, but there's not a lot of pop in his bat, and he may be better-suited for third base defensively.

I really like Keppinger who has outplayed his "tools" on a consistent basis. But he has to overcome the perception that he isn't good enough to be a regular. I think he's better than a lot of regular second basemen, but the perception is that he slots in better as a utility guy.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Keppinger
Interesting...I would've pegged him as a utility type too, but you think he could be "better than a lot of regular second basemen." How much better? (Maybe a Wally Backman type?)

by wrightfan on May 25, 2005 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Grant Psomas
Grant Psomas is absolutely tearing apart the Sally League to the tune of a .348/.434/.646 line and a 26/25 BB/K rate in 161 at-bats. What can you tell us about him?

Psomas is 22, two years older than Shawn Bowman, who plays third base for High-A St. Lucie and has struggled mightily this year. Who is the better prospect at this point?

by Eric Simon on May 25, 2005 11:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

psomas
Psomas was a 15th round pick last year out of West Virginia. He could be a sleeper, although quite a few college guys tear up the Sally League without actually being great prospects. We need to see more, but the early returns are certainly good.

Bowman I have never believed in. HIs strike zone judgment is putrid.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yunir Garcia
What can you tell us about St. Lucie's catcher Yunir Garcia? He isn't hitting for average (.207) and he's striking out a ton (32 in 87 at-bats), but he's shown some pop (8 XBH), good discipline (19 walks), and decent speed (5/5 in stolen base attempts). Is he any kind of prospect? What's his defense like behind the dish?

by Eric Simon on May 25, 2005 11:43 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

garcia
He's another Venezuelan, and your summary is pretty accurate....he has trouble making contact and won't hit for a high average, but he does have some power and will take a walk. He is a prospect, albeit a Grade C type. I don't have any current information about his defense.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Deaton and Bannister
Kevin Deaton and Brian Bannister are both having great seasons with AA Binghamton (Eastern League). Which of the two is more projectable? Do either have a chance to crack a big league rotation?

by Eric Simon on May 25, 2005 11:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

deaton
I think I like Bannister a little better. Yes, they both have a chance to be rotation guys eventually, although Deaton needs to watch his weight.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rank Mets system
Where would you rank the Mets system in terms of overall depth and in high-end prospects?

by wrightfan on May 25, 2005 11:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

average
Not to sound like a copout, but average overall...:)

I like the pitching depth they are building up. I am less impressed with the hitters.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Victor Diaz
Victor Diaz always showed the ability to hit in the minor leagues but he never showed any plate discipline. He started this season with the Mets and walked 18 times in 85 at-bats. Was this just a fluke, or is there some other explanation?

Do you think he's good enough to be a starting corner outfielder in The Show? How bad was his defense at second base? Was he worse than Alfonso Soriano or Kaz Matsui?

by Eric Simon on May 25, 2005 11:49 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

diaz
Yes, his defense at second is/was pretty putrid. Worse than Soriano or Matsui certainly. Very poor range.

I really like his bat. Is the walk spike a fluke? Well, maybe a little...I don't think he'd maintain that rate over a full season. But it is hard to argue with his performance this year. He's always had explosive bat speed, enabling him to overcome his impatience. If he can add even a modicum of patience, he could be a dominant hitter. And so far this year he has done that. Can he sustain it? I don't know. But if he does sustain it, or even 50% of it, then he should continue to post ecxellent numbers.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brett Harper
Brett Harper is hitting .282/.344/.618 playing first base for St. Lucie and leads the entire Mets organization with 16 homeruns this season. Is he any kind of prospect?

by Eric Simon on May 25, 2005 11:51 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

harper
The knock on harper has always been lack of home run power. he's certainly showing it this year. The problem now is his age. He is 24 and repeating the league. He has to show he can do this in Double-A before being taken seriously.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

C & 1B
Are the Mets' next starting first baseman and catcher presently part of the organization, or are they going to have to fill those holes from outside?

by kid dynamite on May 25, 2005 11:53 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

1B
I don't see much to get excited about at the catching position.

at 1B, you have Harper and Carp who we have preiovusly mentioned, ripping up A-ball. If they can do that in Double-A then there is reason for hope, but we don't know yet.

The good news is that it is usually pretty easy to find a good first baseman. As long as he isn't named Mo Vaughn.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Prospects
to add to wrightfan's first question, who would you rate as the Mets top 3 pitching prospects? What are the odds of any or all contributing to the top club by the end of next season?

Where are the holes/weaknesses are where are the surplusses/strengths in the Mets farm system?

by Bragan on May 25, 2005 11:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

pitching
Well, I think you have to go with Humber and Petit at the top. Then you can pick from guys like Deaton, Bannister, Vince Cordova, Gabe Hernandez.

Holes: lack of hitters who control the strike zone well.

Strengths: pitchers who throw strikes.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

'05 Mets
Which prospects have the best chance of making an impact on the big club this year?

by wrightfan on May 25, 2005 12:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

05
For the second half, Petit or Bannister are possibilities. Keppinger is ready to help if they find a spot for him.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blake McGinley
Blake McGinley has had terrific minor league numbers as a reliever for the Mets, yet now they seem to be using him as a starter (five starts this season). Do you think he could be a solid big league reliever, and do you have any idea why the Mets are having him start games at Norfolk?

by Eric Simon on May 25, 2005 12:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

mcginley
I don't know why he is starting. It could be they want to stretch him out and see if he can handle long relief/spot starts. Or maybe he's just the only guy available right now to fill that spot at Norfolk.

I see him as a utility pitcher down the line, a 10th or 11th man. He doesn't have a big margin for error, but he's done enough in the minors to at least earn a look.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Craig Hansen
I know it goes against conventional wisdom to draft a reliever with a top 10 pick, but do you think Hansen may be worth it? Does he project to be a top 5 closer? Who does he compare to in your estimation?

by wrightfan on May 25, 2005 12:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

hansen
More and more teams are willing to draft relievers early, due to the success of guys like Huston STreet, Chad Cordero, etc.

Hansen certainly has the stuff to be a power closer, and as long as his command stays good I don't see any reason why he WON'T succeed. I'd compare him to a cross between STreet and Ryan Wagner.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Playoff Demotions
The Mets have a recent history of demoting players in the low minors late in the season (e.g. from High-A to Low-A) for the playoff push. Is this just a ploy on the part of the Mets to try to win low-level championships? They say that they want to give the youngsters the feel for winning baseball and playing under pressure. Is this a valid argument?

by Eric Simon on May 25, 2005 12:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

brooklyn
You're talking about how they like to give Brooklyn a push in the NY-P playoffs every year. I think part of that is for public relations purposes, and part of it is the "winning psychology" stuff the Mets talk about.

Is it a valid argument? It makes sense on paper. Whether it works or now, I don't know. Obviously you'd rather have your minor league teams win more often than not, but you have to be careful about overstocking with mature players at low levels, which proves nothing.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Organization's scouting and development program
What do you see as the distinctive qualities of the Mets' scouting and farm system?  What does the organization tend to look for in pitchers and in position players?  (Am I right in suspecting that it's a very traditional, tools-scouting-driven system from top to bottom, and that there's no special emphasis on selectivity or OBP?)

by anonymous on May 25, 2005 12:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

tools
Well, in terms of pitchers they seem to like control and command guys. . .I mean, they'll pick a power guy when they can, but it is more of a balanced approach between hot fastballs and guys who throw strikes. Ideally you want both, of course, but around the margins they seem to like adding as many command guys as possible.

 Oddly enough, their approach for hitters is the opposite: tools, athleticism are far more important than polished skills. Which is why you have guys like Shawn Bowman being praised as great prospects even when they can't actually play the game.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pitching Prospects
What do you think about Oregon State's BIG THREE?!?!
Name                             ERA   W-L
Dallas Buck (great name) 1.93  11-1  RH
Anton Maxwell                 4.36  10-1  LH
Jonah Nickerson               2.13   8-1  RH (his first loss of the year was the last game of the season :( against USC)

Anyways these three guys aren't eligible for the draft this year, but I think they are ALL big time major league talents!  Of course I am from Corvallis, so I may just be a big homer :)

by OBF on May 25, 2005 12:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

oregon state
good numbers for these guys, certainly. And watch JAcoby Ellsbury, OF. He could be really good.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anderson Hernandez
What's your impression of Anderson Hernandez?  He's knocking the tar out of the ball in Binghamton right now.

by Alex Nelson on May 25, 2005 12:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

hernandez
His glove has always been ahead of his bat. Even though he's hitting this year, his plate discipline is still not very good. I would be cautious at this point. I think he still projects as a gloveman utility guy.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gomez or Concepcion
1) Besides Millege, which of the organizations toolsy outfielders has the most legitimate chance of being an everyday player?  2) Gaby Hernandez -- where does he project, and why did he fall to the third round last year  

by jjr on May 25, 2005 12:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

milledge
Millege looks like the only one to me with a chance to be a regular. The other guys (hill, Lydon, etc.) look like reserves to me.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hernandez
Hernandez fell because there was a lot of high school pitching available. In some years he could have been a first round pick.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

jacobs
What's the future for Mike Jacobs?  

by mrmetaa on May 25, 2005 12:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

jacobw
Jacobs: about like his present. Double-A/Triple-A. Unless he starts hitting a lot better he won't make it in the majors.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Any news on Alay Soler
With Morales making his debut the other night has there been any news regarding Soler resolving his visa issues

by jjr on May 25, 2005 12:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

soler
Not that I have heard.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

change in philosophy?
With Russ Bove replacing Jack Bowen as the Mets amateur scouting director, do you see any change by the organization stressing a more moneyball or OBP approach?

by jjr on May 25, 2005 12:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

maybe
Maybe. Wait and see...:)

Seriously, the Mets are being linked more with college guys in the draft rumors this year. Whether that is a Moneyball thing or just the way the draft class bounces this year is hard to say. I would look more at what they do in the middle and later rounds for a clue about this. Do they pick lots of raw kids or do they pick more college guys or a mixture? Obviously we can't predict that yet.

by John Sickels on May 25, 2005 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, John
Thanks a lot, John. We really appreciate you taking time out to answer questions for us. This was a lot of fun and I hope we can do it again later on in the season.

by Eric Simon on May 25, 2005 1:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good Job Eric
interesting discussion

by Mr. Met on May 25, 2005 1:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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