NLCS: Rotation Evaluations

by Eric Simon on Oct 11, 2006 12:59 AM EDT

Yesterday I compared the lineups of the Mets and the Cardinals using a makeshift stat I threw together called VORP100, which is just a player's value over replacement per 100 place appearances. The plate appearance part is to level the playing field between two guys with disparate playing time. Today I'm going to take a look at the scheduled starting pitching matchups using a similarly-jury-rigged metric I call SNLVAR100. It just rolls right off the tongue, don't it?

SNLVAR, or Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Above Replacement, is kind of like VORP for pitchers. They actually do have VORP for pitchers but I don't particularly like the way it works, so SNLVAR, another Baseball Prospectus metric, is what I use. The "100" in this case represents 100 innings pitched, again to adjust for differing workloads.

The starting pitchers for the NLCS are subject to change depending on the weather and possibly some other factors, but here are the matchups as it stands right now.

GAME 1 => Edge: METS

Tom Glavine: 2.51 SNLVAR100
Jeff Weaver: 1.80 SNLVAR100 (with Cardinals)

Weaver is much worse if you count his time with the Angels, but I'm willing to give him a blank slate in the NL. Still, Glavine has been substantially more valuable this year, just as he has for every year in which both have been in the league, I'm assuming. This is by far the best matchup from the Mets' perspective. This is a game the Mets simply have to win.

GAME 2 => Edge: METS

John Maine: 2.67 SNLVAR100
Jeff Suppan: 2.26 SNLVAR100

Jeffy Soup holds his own against John Maine, though the rookie still has an edge. Considering what's in store for the Mets in Game 3 they should look to jump on Suppan early and, with a little luck, can head to St. Louis with a two game lead.

GAME 3 => Edge: CARDINALS

Steve Trachsel: 1.76 SNLVAR100
Chris Carpenter: 3.29 SNLVAR100

Gah. Just a horrible mismatch here, as Carpenter is one of the best pitchers in the league and is on his way to another Cy Young while Trachsel is a wine afficionado.

GAME 4 => Edge: PUSH

Oliver Perez: 1.09 SNLVAR100 (with Mets)
Jason Marquis: 1.08 SNLVAR100

Pretty even match, here. Perez's numbers would be lower if we counted his time in Pittsburgh, but I'm inclined to discard them just as I have Weaver's time in the American League.

FINAL TALLY: METS 2, CARDINALS 1, PUSH 1.

UPDATE: In case Tony La Russa goes with Anthony Reyes in Game 4 instead of Jason Marquis, Reyes has a SNLVAR100 of 2.23, much higher than Marquis or Oliver.

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Comments

Rotation

Has LaRussa officially named Marquis as his Game 4 starter? I can't help but think he'd be better off throwing Reyes.

by Alex Nelson on Oct 10, 2006 11:49 PM EDT reply actions

No

I'm just assuming he'll go with the Proven Veteran™.

by Eric Simon on Oct 10, 2006 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions

In this case, the proven pinata

It's funny to read the comments of dread and derision about Marquis over at the St. Louis SB site. I don't think I noticed any defenders pointing out that he's a "great athlete" and an excellent hitter . . . for a pitcher.

As bad as the Mets starting pitching situation is, it could certainly be worse, as the Cards demonstrate. Hell, imagine if we had a healthy Zambrano -- Willie would probably feel compelled to give him the ball tonight rather than Maine. Be thankful for what we have, and what we don't.

by Tom @ Amazin' Avenue on Oct 11, 2006 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Game 4

Alas, the Cardinals' official site reports:

The Cardinals made just one change to their roster from the National League Division Series to this week's Championship Series, but it was a significant one. Left off of the NLCS roster was Jason Marquis, with Anthony Reyes taking his place.

That means Reyes is the starter for Game 4 of the series at Busch Stadium on Sunday.

by Pony Country on Oct 12, 2006 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Gonna rain?

I'm a little worried about the forcast tonight.

"He even tried to pimp it," Floyd said. "He's got no pimp." Said Wright: "I don't even know what that means."

by Billy Everyteen on Oct 11, 2006 10:47 AM EDT reply actions

That would be

the best news I've heard all day.

Hakuna Matata!

"The Mets with the bases loaded: Chavez, great speed, Reyes, great speed, Lo Duca, good guy."

by Mr. Met on Oct 11, 2006 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Mr. Met

Just remember that occasionally capitulating to wifely needs is part of the Circle of Life.

"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Oct 11, 2006 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

You're very kind, dissento.

A lesser man (such as me) would have referred to me as a bed-wetting pansy who probably spends his weekends shopping for toaster ovens.

"The Mets with the bases loaded: Chavez, great speed, Reyes, great speed, Lo Duca, good guy."

by Mr. Met on Oct 11, 2006 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Nah

I wouldn't do that to you. As Mufasa says, "Everything you see exists together in a delicate balance. As king, you need to understand that balance and respect all the creatures, from the crawling ant to the leaping antelope."

"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Oct 11, 2006 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Hehe

Yeah - that and the toaster oven thing.

"He even tried to pimp it," Floyd said. "He's got no pimp." Said Wright: "I don't even know what that means."

by Billy Everyteen on Oct 11, 2006 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

busy saturday morning for Mr Met

Well, um, actually a pretty nice little Saturday, we're going to go to Home Depot. Yeah, buy some wallpaper, maybe get some flooring, stuff like that. Maybe Bed, Bath, & Beyond, I don't know, I don't know if we'll have enough time.

Pedro offers you his protection.

by pj on Oct 14, 2006 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Glavine is going to be good again tonight, though not untouchable. 6 innings, 3 runs scored.
TG's second start may be rocky.
Trachsel will pitch one good game an win and lose the other one VERY badly
Pujols will take Maine deep twice. Likely the bases will be empty.
Wagner will lose one game for us in either this series or the next.
I have no idea what Ollie will do whatsoever.

"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Oct 11, 2006 1:59 PM EDT reply actions