Daily Stat Fix

by Eric Simon on Dec 6, 2006 9:41 AM EST in Daily Stat

First Pitch Swinging, 2006

Player       PA    AVG    OBP    SLG
------------------------------------
J. Reyes     98   .312   .312   .531
P. Lo Duca   74   .279   .290   .426
C. Beltran   37   .382   .389   .794
C. Delgado   76   .271   .276   .571
D. Wright    70   .269   .257   .418
J. Valentin  44   .302   .295   .698
E. Chavez    48   .366   .357   .537
C. Floyd     62   .283   .306   .433
X. Nady      66   .279   .312   .410

One obvious caveat of this split is that OBP relative to AVG is almost meaningless because, obviously, a player can't walk on the first pitch of a plate appearance. Any difference is a result of hits-by-pitch (OBP goes up), sacrifice flies (OBP goes down) and sacrifice bunts (OBP goes down).

The other caveat is that it only includes balls that are put into play. Swinging strikes, foul balls, and anything else that serves to prolong the at-bat has no impact on these numbers.

0 recs | Comment 8 comments

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Comments

Foul balls...but fouling out is still counted

I imagine.

Jose's .321/.531 makes a good argument in favor of him going up swinging. But is that actually below his BABIP? It would be great if the table showed their BABIPs. Some of them might be hitting with more or less authority than usual once they do make contact.

by peeder on Dec 6, 2006 2:05 PM EST 0 recs

Yes

Foul outs count. I could show BABIP, but it depends very heavily on strikeouts to make it meaningful and there are obviously no strikeouts on the first pitch of a plate appearance. FPBABIP (first pitch batting average on balls in play) would just be at-bats less homeruns divided by hits less homeruns (AB-HR / H-HR), and it's always going to be less than the real batting average for this particular split.

In other words, every single out on the first pitch of a plate appearance is a "ball in play", and for that reason I don't find it very useful in this scenario.

by Eric Simon on Dec 6, 2006 2:25 PM EST up 0 recs

The question I'm asking statistically is,

"Does the batter get better wood on the ball when they make contact on the first pitch or on later pitches?"

I.e. is there a benefit to seeing the pitcher's motion and movement and thus getting a cleaner strike? As opposed to a popup or weak grounder.

BABIP I would assume would measure the "authority" with which a ball is struck, except for the atom-ball line drives of course.

And so if you measured the relative success rates of balls in play on the first pitch vs. on later pitches you might answer that.

Of course I haven't sat down and thought about how to do it. Thought you might know.

by peeder on Dec 6, 2006 3:09 PM EST up 0 recs

I think

What you'd really want to see are the batted ball percentages: basically what the likelihood is that a first pitch swing will result in a line drive, infield pop, outfield fly or groundball.

As far as I know, that data isn't around where mortals can see.

by Blackfish on Dec 6, 2006 3:46 PM EST up 0 recs

Another question is

What is the ground/fly ratio on first pitch vs. on later pitches hit into play?

Jose's high average may be that he's hitting more grounders on the first pitch and using his speed that he doesn't use later in the at bat when he's trying for a long fly. Bunts for a base hit are usually first-pitch efforts as well.

by peeder on Dec 6, 2006 3:14 PM EST up 0 recs