Mets' projected lineup

Baseball Prospectus published their 2006 PECOTA cards for every big league ballplayer a few weeks ago, so here are the batting lines for the Mets' projected starting lineup according to their 50% PECOTA forecast.

Jose Reyes, .276/.314/.407
Paul Lo Duca, .271/.325/.384
Carlos Beltran, .285/.368/.504
Carlos Delgado, .282/.381/.552
David Wright, .303/.388/.559
Cliff Floyd, .274/.358/.499
Xavier Nady, .268/.326/.450
Kaz Matsui, .252/.308/.372

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Victor Diaz, .265/.323/.469
Anderson Hernandez, .261/.306/.361

Diaz and Hernandez are included just for reference, since either one might win the starting job at their respective positions. If Lo Duca actually bats second the Mets might lead the league in lowest OBP for their 1-2 hitters again, though 3-6 matches up very well with any other middle-lineup in the National League. You're looking at four straight hitters with .200+ isolated power (SLG - AVG), which is a lot of power. The average line for those guys is .286/.374/.529 which is outrageous.

The Mets will also get a ton of power out of the #7 hole. The average #7 hitter in the National League last year hit .257/.320/.388, and either Nady or Diaz should top that SLG easily. Second base looks to be dead weight regardless of who gets the job, as the Mets will probably get very little production out of the keystone. Neither Matsui nor Hernandez project to be better than average defensively, either. This is not a knock against Hernandez, as he will likely become a very good defensive player given ample time to develop in the big leagues.

It's important to remember that these are just projections, but things look very promising indeed.

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