Diary: Jorge Julio Traded for El Duque
(moved from diaries --eric)
I think the news that we have traded Jorge Julio for El Duque Orlando Hernandez is crazy. Not only have we gotten way, way older, we have also weakened the bullpen we wanted to protect so much we trapped Heilman there and probably lost four games so far as a result.
With none of our backend starters, including El Duque, likely to eat many innings (Duque has averaged 5IP/start so far, and gone 2-4 with a 6.11 ERA for Arizona), Heilman and Sanchez will be over-used in the absence of Julio.
As Eli pointed out, this amounts to Benson for Duque (and Maine). Who fires on that trade? Julio at least had a sizable upside.
This was an impulsive trade that doesn't net us much more than what we already have on the mend in Bannister and Maine. Checkmarks like postseason experience don't do much for me when Duque is unlikely to appear as a postseason starter for us...we will need something better regardless. I would probably trust Trachsel over Duque in a postseason start anyway.
El Duque's K/9 is strong, and his K/BB is acceptable, but he is being hit fairly hard, with a 1.58 WHIP and a .545 SLG against. Shea will improve that SLG a bit, but it's not clear Duque will prevent as many runs over the course of the year as Julio may have.
I believe the trade amounts to a matter of confidence: Willie did not have faith in Julio, but he will obviously have faith in Duque (those shared championships on the Yankees will do that). Omar probably also looked at the relief performance in last year's postseason, and being postseason-bound, wanted someone he felt more reliable than Julio to call upon in a jam. Duque's role as a starter may be temporary.
There are always things we might not know behind the scenes, such as possible health or character issues with Julio (I'm certainly not suggesting there are any). However, El Duque's suspect durability...he has failed to reach 100IP in 2 of his last 4 seasons...means that we may well be going from the frying pan straight into the fire.
This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.
32 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
he seems to find his way back to NYC
- On the one hand, Julio had been pitching well and maybe Omar figured he should just get whatever he could for him right now.
- On the other, why El Duck? He's far past his prime, injured constantly, and not a blazing reliever. Not to mention those numbers so far this year, ugly.
can't be worse than LIMA TIME! i hope (knocking furiously on wood).
by londoncatfish on May 24, 2006 6:38 PM EDT reply actions
Trade
Terrible move
Just weird
Just strange, after all that perserverance with Julio, they end up trading him now - maybe they were just trying to drive up his value, but I can't help seeing this as a strange move. Anyway, hopefully Maine ends up being worth it.
by Billy Everyteen on May 24, 2006 6:50 PM EDT reply actions
At this point Julio's a better pitcher
by Billy Everyteen on May 24, 2006 6:58 PM EDT reply actions
Soler is close with Jose Contreras
OH is going to start for now
Yeah I would imagine
by Billy Everyteen on May 24, 2006 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
El Duque
I actually like this deal. Jorge Julio has put up some nice peripherals this year, and was actually pitching pretty well since his rough start. But I'll almost always take a starter over a middle reliever. And El Duque's stats are superficially high. His homerun rate in particular is quite high, about 50% higher than it should be, even after adjusting for his home park, where he's been terrible. And moving to Shea will go a long way.
His K rate is very good this year, his BB rate is okay, and the homers will go down. And best of all, he's had cheaply. Anyone better will cost Lastings Milledge, and I really doubt anyone available will be worth it.
Agreed
by Dan Scotto @ Amazin' Avenue on May 25, 2006 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree too
Aren't the people slamming this trade...
by madisonmetsfan on May 24, 2006 11:38 PM EDT reply actions
I'm not one of them
I can't remember begging to trade Julio
Now he's turned into El Duque, who may be good for a season or two (depending on whether he is 41 or 48). Julio may have been a fireballing setup man and even closer for us for the remainder of the decade.
Anyone remember how hard it was to assemble a decent bullpen? I think it was just a half a year ago...
Could work out
I also wonder if another reason for getting him was to help Alay Soler adjust to the big leagues. It can't hurt, especially if he gets Soler to relax and not walk the first three batters of the game (after which, of course, he looked fantastic).
From NYT
General Manager Omar Minaya said that he traded for Hernández partly because of his reputation as a mentor for younger pitchers, particularly Cubans. He noticed how José Contreras, a former Yankee, improved last season while playing with Hernández on the Chicago White Sox, and he anticipates Hernández's assuming a similar role with Soler. "That definitely played into my thinking," Minaya said.Soler said of Hernández, "I can't wait to learn from him."
From this, El Duque appears to be the pitching equivalent of Julio Franco: a player-coach.
A whole new season now
A few weeks ago the rotation was Pedro, Glavine, Trax, a less than 100% Zambrano and an erratic Brian Bannister.
Now you add Soler who in one start already looked better than Bannister, against a better team than Bannister ever faced) and a guy with 9 career postseason victories and a 2.55 ERA.
A major upgrade here.
And don't worry about taking Julio out of the bullpen. He was at best our #5 guy which makes a much smaller difference than a #5 starter.
by The Sport Report on May 25, 2006 10:32 AM EDT reply actions
Who was #4 in the pen other than Julio?
Bradford and Feliciano are ROOGY/LOOGY. Oliver is long man. Heath Bell?
Julio was definitely the #4 guy and while he was a roller coaster ride he will be sorely missed in an all-too-sore pen we're tending.
Perhaps Duque can slot right into the #4 role in the pen, or exceed Zambrano in the rotation. We'll see what he has left, and for how long.
The old bullpen hierarchy
Maybe you can interchange Julio and Feliciano but I would leave Oliver last as the long man and I definitely think Randolph trusted Bradford more than Julio.
by The Sport Report on May 25, 2006 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Julio
Now the Rotation is: Pedro, Glavine, Trachsel, Soler, El Duque.
When Bannister comes back, I don't even know if he deserves his job back.
Heilman must be going bat-shit crazy. You're going to start the exhumed corpse of El Duque over me? BAH I SAY, BAH!
LOL
'That's some catch, that Catch-22,' he observed. 'It's the best there is,' Doc Daneeka agreed.
by Billy Everyteen on May 25, 2006 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
After sleeping on it
So now we have Soler, El Duque, Bannister, and Maine in the mix for the back of the rotation. Looking forward to seeing how it shakes out once the latter two get healthy, and we swing back from not enough starting pitching to "too much" - a good problem to have.
by Billy Everyteen on May 25, 2006 10:48 AM EDT reply actions
Trade
Plus, for whatever you think it's worth, his playoff and Gotham pedigrees are unrivaled by any player with his availability.
Right
Even if Bannister/Maine could do what El Duque can do, who knows when they'll be back? (and how effective when they return).
And if Trachsel continues to look shaky, it won't hurt to have another pedigreed option to make high-leverage starts down the stretch and even in the playoffs. I went into the year thinking I was fine with Trachsel making playoff starts, but now I'm not so sure.
I think this is a good move.
That's a good analysis
by Billy Everyteen on May 25, 2006 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Playoff and NYC experience
by Billy Everyteen on May 25, 2006 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
for
by udamnwright on May 25, 2006 11:15 AM EDT reply actions
Perhaps, but did you get value in trade?
And similarly Julio for Duque I'm not sure is value for 2006, and I'm fairly sure is not value beyond then.
I think
In this deal I believe we got value for this year and it is break even for the future since I don't believe either would be on this team next year. Duke will be gone for Pelfrey or another kid, and really don't think Julio would have been here unless he proved to be lights out.
by udamnwright on May 25, 2006 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Give Omar the benefit of the doubt here.
Looking at the big picture, and the value of Duque down the road as opposed to just who makes the next start, it makes a lot of sense. Or at least, if it makes sense to Omar, I'm willing to go with that.
Those who say Duque "blows" have some short memories.
How old is El Duque really?
One site says he's 36, another says he's 40.
by erich11226 on May 25, 2006 10:10 PM EDT reply actions

by 

























