Diary: Jorge Julio Traded for El Duque

by peeder on May 24, 2006 6:16 PM EDT

(moved from diaries --eric)

I think the news that we have traded Jorge Julio for El Duque Orlando Hernandez is crazy. Not only have we gotten way, way older, we have also weakened the bullpen we wanted to protect so much we trapped Heilman there and probably lost four games so far as a result.

With none of our backend starters, including El Duque, likely to eat many innings (Duque has averaged 5IP/start so far, and gone 2-4 with a 6.11 ERA for Arizona), Heilman and Sanchez will be over-used in the absence of Julio.

As Eli pointed out, this amounts to Benson for Duque (and Maine). Who fires on that trade? Julio at least had a sizable upside.

This was an impulsive trade that doesn't net us much more than what we already have on the mend in Bannister and Maine. Checkmarks like postseason experience don't do much for me when Duque is unlikely to appear as a postseason starter for us...we will need something better regardless. I would probably trust Trachsel over Duque in a postseason start anyway.

El Duque's K/9 is strong, and his K/BB is acceptable, but he is being hit fairly hard, with a 1.58 WHIP and a .545 SLG against. Shea will improve that SLG a bit, but it's not clear Duque will prevent as many runs over the course of the year as Julio may have.

I believe the trade amounts to a matter of confidence: Willie did not have faith in Julio, but he will obviously have faith in Duque (those shared championships on the Yankees will do that). Omar probably also looked at the relief performance in last year's postseason, and being postseason-bound, wanted someone he felt more reliable than Julio to call upon in a jam. Duque's role as a starter may be temporary.

There are always things we might not know behind the scenes, such as possible health or character issues with Julio (I'm certainly not suggesting there are any). However, El Duque's suspect durability...he has failed to reach 100IP in 2 of his last 4 seasons...means that we may well be going from the frying pan straight into the fire.

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Comments

he seems to find his way back to NYC

i'm torn on this deal:

On the one hand, Julio had been pitching well and maybe Omar figured he should just get whatever he could for him right now.
On the other, why El Duck? He's far past his prime, injured constantly, and not a blazing reliever. Not to mention those numbers so far this year, ugly.

so I guess I'm not so torn - it was nice to see Julio pitching better and maybe we coulda done better.

can't be worse than LIMA TIME! i hope (knocking furiously on wood).

by londoncatfish on May 24, 2006 6:38 PM EDT reply actions

Trade

got John Maine in the Benson deal, who might end up as good as Benson, plus we cleared $15 million in salary that we use to pay Carlos and got rid of the annoying person who need not be named. I don't mind this deal. El duque can start for a while and shift to the bullpen if needed. That side motion causes problems for hitters(see Heilman, Aaron) when you see once a game.

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win

by DoctorK16 on May 24, 2006 6:44 PM EDT reply actions

Terrible move

El Duque? He fucking blows.

"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-

by future on May 24, 2006 6:50 PM EDT reply actions

Just weird

I hope jonboy's right. Funny to see Duque back in NYC.

Just strange, after all that perserverance with Julio, they end up trading him now - maybe they were just trying to drive up his value, but I can't help seeing this as a strange move. Anyway, hopefully Maine ends up being worth it.

"He even tried to pimp it," Floyd said. "He's got no pimp." Said Wright: "I don't even know what that means."

by Billy Everyteen on May 24, 2006 6:50 PM EDT reply actions

At this point Julio's a better pitcher

But, sure, if Willie's only going to use him in garbage time, I guess OH is at least as useful. Maybe he can help Soler adjust to the major leagues - anyone know what kind of relationship they have?

"He even tried to pimp it," Floyd said. "He's got no pimp." Said Wright: "I don't even know what that means."

by Billy Everyteen on May 24, 2006 6:58 PM EDT reply actions

Soler is close with Jose Contreras

Not sure about the Hernandezes...they left earlier.

by peeder on May 24, 2006 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions

OH is going to start for now

i would think no?

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win

by DoctorK16 on May 24, 2006 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah I would imagine

I was just trying to look at it in terms of what we're giving up with Julio. A better pitcher, but if he's not going to be trusted in meaningful situations, than there's not much harm in trading him for an experiment with El Duque starting - at worst, Duque can go into the bullpen to eat innings and we can keep working towards an MLB record for most starting pitchers in a season.

"He even tried to pimp it," Floyd said. "He's got no pimp." Said Wright: "I don't even know what that means."

by Billy Everyteen on May 24, 2006 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions

El Duque

I have an article going up at MetsGeek tomorrow on this, but I figured I'd share my general opinion here also.

I actually like this deal. Jorge Julio has put up some nice peripherals this year, and was actually pitching pretty well since his rough start. But I'll almost always take a starter over a middle reliever. And El Duque's stats are superficially high. His homerun rate in particular is quite high, about 50% higher than it should be, even after adjusting for his home park, where he's been terrible. And moving to Shea will go a long way.

His K rate is very good this year, his BB rate is okay, and the homers will go down. And best of all, he's had cheaply. Anyone better will cost Lastings Milledge, and I really doubt anyone available will be worth it.

by Alex Nelson on May 24, 2006 10:07 PM EDT reply actions

Agreed

I think that Blackfish hits the nail on the head here.

by Dan Scotto @ Amazin' Avenue on May 25, 2006 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree too

Julio was the 4th man out of the pen. He had a live arm and looked decent, but the upgrade of El Duque over Jeremi Gonzalez (or whoever), I think, outweighs whatever loss comes from replacing Julio with Bell. I think Bell will be just fine stepping into Julio's role (an inning here, an inning there) and El Duque is an immediate upgrade - he's not particularly durable but he can pitch), especially with Bannister and Maine not looking like they're coming back in the immediate future (although Soler looked decent yesterday for sure).

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 25, 2006 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Aren't the people slamming this trade...

...some of the very ones who were ready to trade Julio for a bag of donuts in April? A reminder that fans is short for fanatics.

by madisonmetsfan on May 24, 2006 11:38 PM EDT reply actions

I'm not one of them

I'd have traded him, but I would have much rather had Benson still in the rotation.

"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-

by future on May 24, 2006 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I can't remember begging to trade Julio

I was patient with him the whole way, and I felt my patience paid off. I thought he had been resuscitated and his last month of work shows that.

Now he's turned into El Duque, who may be good for a season or two (depending on whether he is 41 or 48). Julio may have been a fireballing setup man and even closer for us for the remainder of the decade.

Anyone remember how hard it was to assemble a decent bullpen? I think it was just a half a year ago...

by peeder on May 25, 2006 4:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Could work out

It's possible that El Duque simply needed to get out of Arizona. Chase Field has played as the best hitter's park in baseball so far this season, and is a very good hitter's park in general. Despite Hernandez' bloated 6.11 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, he's got a very nice 2.65 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and an outstanding 21/4 K/BB ratio on the road. Granted, it's a small sample size, and who knows how durable he is at "age 38", but moving from Chase Field to Shea has got to be a big help.

I also wonder if another reason for getting him was to help Alay Soler adjust to the big leagues. It can't hurt, especially if he gets Soler to relax and not walk the first three batters of the game (after which, of course, he looked fantastic).

Free Darren Oliver! Let him start!

by Greenpoint Ian on May 25, 2006 9:19 AM EDT reply actions

From NYT

General Manager Omar Minaya said that he traded for Hernández partly because of his reputation as a mentor for younger pitchers, particularly Cubans. He noticed how José Contreras, a former Yankee, improved last season while playing with Hernández on the Chicago White Sox, and he anticipates Hernández's assuming a similar role with Soler. "That definitely played into my thinking," Minaya said.
Soler said of Hernández, "I can't wait to learn from him."

From this, El Duque appears to be the pitching equivalent of Julio Franco: a player-coach.

by peeder on May 25, 2006 10:22 AM EDT reply actions

A whole new season now

You have to look at it this way.

A few weeks ago the rotation was Pedro, Glavine, Trax, a less than 100% Zambrano and an erratic Brian Bannister.

Now you add Soler who in one start already looked better than Bannister, against a better team than Bannister ever faced) and a guy with 9 career postseason victories and a 2.55 ERA.

A major upgrade here.

And don't worry about taking Julio out of the bullpen. He was at best our #5 guy which makes a much smaller difference than a #5 starter.

Joshua P. Rosenstock is the Managing Editor of TheSportReport.com

by The Sport Report on May 25, 2006 10:32 AM EDT reply actions

Who was #4 in the pen other than Julio?

And I'm talking Julio de Mayo and not Julio de Abril.

Bradford and Feliciano are ROOGY/LOOGY. Oliver is long man. Heath Bell?

Julio was definitely the #4 guy and while he was a roller coaster ride he will be sorely missed in an all-too-sore pen we're tending.

Perhaps Duque can slot right into the #4 role in the pen, or exceed Zambrano in the rotation. We'll see what he has left, and for how long.

by peeder on May 25, 2006 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions

The old bullpen hierarchy

Wager, Sanchez, Heilman, Bradford, Julio, Feliciano, Oliver

Maybe you can interchange Julio and Feliciano but I would leave Oliver last as the long man and I definitely think Randolph trusted Bradford more than Julio.

Joshua P. Rosenstock is the Managing Editor of TheSportReport.com

by The Sport Report on May 25, 2006 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

I think Julio

should have been used more. But now we have El Duque, he'll start not this Jeremi start, but the next. That's an immediate upgrade.

Now the Rotation is: Pedro, Glavine, Trachsel, Soler, El Duque.

When Bannister comes back, I don't even know if he deserves his job back.

Heilman must be going bat-shit crazy. You're going to start the exhumed corpse of El Duque over me? BAH I SAY, BAH!

"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-

by future on May 25, 2006 10:46 AM EDT reply actions

LOL

Poor Heilman.

'That's some catch, that Catch-22,' he observed. 'It's the best there is,' Doc Daneeka agreed.

"He even tried to pimp it," Floyd said. "He's got no pimp." Said Wright: "I don't even know what that means."

by Billy Everyteen on May 25, 2006 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions

After sleeping on it

I'm much happier about this. While it's true that Julio is younger and has better stuff, El Duque as a starter (at best) or clutch reliever (at worst) is worth more than a skilled but inconsistent guy who nobody trusts in a meaningful situation. And if he can be an effective mentor for Soler, so much the better. It's a win-now rather than a long term move, but it makes sense.

So now we have Soler, El Duque, Bannister, and Maine in the mix for the back of the rotation. Looking forward to seeing how it shakes out once the latter two get healthy, and we swing back from not enough starting pitching to "too much" - a good problem to have.

"He even tried to pimp it," Floyd said. "He's got no pimp." Said Wright: "I don't even know what that means."

by Billy Everyteen on May 25, 2006 10:48 AM EDT reply actions

Trade

If Heath Bell can ratchet it up a bit in his big league appearances, he can be a very capable replacement for Julio in the bullpen. He has been untouchable at AAA, which doesn't always translate to the big leagues, but I believe in his stuff and I think he can be a productive guy out of the Mets' bullpen. If Hernandez can be anything like league average he'll be a huge upgrade over Lima/Gonzalez and one of the better fifth starters in the league.

Plus, for whatever you think it's worth, his playoff and Gotham pedigrees are unrivaled by any player with his availability.

by Eric Simon on May 25, 2006 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Right

We gain a lot more by having El Duque start instead of Lima/Gonzalez than we lose by slotting Bell into Julio's appearances. Julio was not pitching many high leverage innings, and Duque, slotted into a starter's role, will be. I think Bell is capable of doing Julio's job, and even if he isn't up to the task, it should still be a net gain. The thing is, even if Duque continued at a 6.00 ERA, it's still 4 runs better than what Lima/Gonzalez are doing!

Even if Bannister/Maine could do what El Duque can do, who knows when they'll be back? (and how effective when they return).

And if Trachsel continues to look shaky, it won't hurt to have another pedigreed option to make high-leverage starts down the stretch and even in the playoffs. I went into the year thinking I was fine with Trachsel making playoff starts, but now I'm not so sure.

I think this is a good move.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on May 25, 2006 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions

That's a good analysis

Well said. I'm more and more convinced on this one.

"He even tried to pimp it," Floyd said. "He's got no pimp." Said Wright: "I don't even know what that means."

by Billy Everyteen on May 25, 2006 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Playoff and NYC experience

are nothing to sneeze at. We're making a run this year, and El Duque's intangibles (much as I hate the concept of "intangibles") will be valuable.

"He even tried to pimp it," Floyd said. "He's got no pimp." Said Wright: "I don't even know what that means."

by Billy Everyteen on May 25, 2006 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions

for

those who say that I would have Kris Benson over Duke. I ask you this would you rather have KB's salary for next year, would rather have Anna running around dogging his Mets teammates, and talking about how great he is and the team let him down in a start that he should have won.

by udamnwright on May 25, 2006 11:15 AM EDT reply actions

Perhaps, but did you get value in trade?

I would say Benson for Julio and Maine was a win for the O's, in the sense we might have done better on the market (gotten a similar #3 starter, for instance).

And similarly Julio for Duque I'm not sure is value for 2006, and I'm fairly sure is not value beyond then.

by peeder on May 25, 2006 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions

I think

that we lost the trade to Baltimore, but we had to get rid of Benson for future money reasons and his wife, but we couldn't even get Affeldt and another crappy reliever for Benson from KC.

In this deal I believe we got value for this year and it is break even for the future since I don't believe either would be on this team next year. Duke will be gone for Pelfrey or another kid, and really don't think Julio would have been here unless he proved to be lights out.

by udamnwright on May 25, 2006 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Give Omar the benefit of the doubt here.

He's proven pretty adept at building a winner so far. You can't just look at the stats. Consider also team chemistry, championship timber, and payroll.

Looking at the big picture, and the value of Duque down the road as opposed to just who makes the next start, it makes a lot of sense. Or at least, if it makes sense to Omar, I'm willing to go with that.

Those who say Duque "blows" have some short memories.

by Mr. Met on May 25, 2006 11:24 AM EDT reply actions

How old is El Duque really?

One site says he's 36, another says he's 40.

by erich11226 on May 25, 2006 10:10 PM EDT reply actions

he has publicly acknowledged

that his birth date is 10/11/1965 as was listed on his Cuban divorce papers back in the day. So he's really 40, he fibbed about his age to the Skankees when he came over.

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win

by DoctorK16 on May 25, 2006 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions