The Mets did the Yankees no favors by getting swept by the Red Sox. A sweep of the Yankees would be the perfect capper.
Record
AL EAST W L PCT GB HOME ROAD RS RA Boston 48 28 .632 --- 27-10 21-18 428 364 NY Yankees 44 32 .579 4.0 24-16 20-16 423 353 Toronto 44 34 .564 5.0 27-16 17-18 423 374 Baltimore 37 43 .463 13.0 24-21 13-22 393 446 Tampa Bay 34 45 .430 15.5 18-17 16-28 338 415 W L RS RA W1 L1 W2 L2 W3 L3 44 32 423 353 44.6 31.4 48.2 27.8 48.2 27.8W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.
The Yankees' expected record is actually about four wins better than their actual record, which means they have underperformed a bit; well, a lot really. Their straight pythagorean record is just a bit ahead (45-31), but when adjusted for strength of schedule and some other factors they would be expected to win a few more games.
Starting Rotation
W L ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP Randy Johnson* 9 6 4.84 100.1 8.52 7.62 2.96 1.35 7.6 Mike Mussina* 9 3 3.28 112.1 7.93 8.01 1.76 1.12 29.9 Chien-Ming Wang 8 3 4.01 112.1 9.29 3.04 2.16 0.48 21.9 Shawn Chacon 4 2 5.68 52.1 10.32 4.99 4.82 1.03 (-3.8) Jaret Wright* 4 5 4.18 64.2 10.30 4.73 3.34 0.56 8.5 * asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets () parentheses denote negative numbers italics denote left-handed pitchersMussina has been very good this year, and Wang has been productive despite one of the worst strikeout rates I've ever seen. Shawn Chacon has done a fine job of regressing to the mean this season, and Jaret Wright is Jaret Wright. The Big Unit continues to pitch erratically and his strikeout rate is the lowest it's been since 1989.
WPA Top Two
Mike Mussina, 136.5% WPA
Chien-Ming Wang, 107.6% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Randy Johnson, -91.2% WPA
Aaron Small, -61.5% WPA
Starting Lineup
Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP AL Rank Jorge Posada# C 260 .288 .400 .474 0 0 18.4 3/16 Jason Giambi* 1B 297 .266 .428 .620 1 0 32.3 1/19 Miguel Cairo 2B 121 .229 .288 .294 6 1 (-3.5) 14/18 Derek Jeter SS 332 .331 .424 .458 15 2 34.6 2/16 Alex Rodriguez 3B 333 .279 .390 .496 8 3 21.7 1/17 Melky Cabrera# LF 185 .255 .344 .335 3 2 (-2.8) 17/21 Johnny Damon* CF 346 .295 .369 .477 16 4 24.3 5/18 Bernie Williams# RF 254 .276 .316 .414 0 0 1.3 15/20 Andy Phillips DH 136 .289 .316 .492 2 1 4.4 10/15 * asterisks denote left-handed batters # pound signs denote switch-hitters rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PAThere are definitely some holes in this lineup as a result of all of the injuries. There are five terrific offensive players here (Posada, Giambi, Jeter, Rodriguez and Damon) and five other bats that range from passable (Williams) to inept (Cairo). If Sheff and Matsui were healthy this lineup would be a monster. As it is, 1-5 it's terrifying and 6-9 it's pretty shabby. Actually, Phillips can hit a bit, but his strikezone judgement is atrocious (31-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio!). WPA Top Two
Derek Jeter, 301.2% WPA
Jason Giambi, 212.9% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Miguel Cairo, -111.3% WPA
Robinson Cano, -71.8% WPA
Bullpen
ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP Mariano Rivera 1.88 43.0 6.91 6.70 1.67 0.00 19.2 Kyle Farnsworth 4.89 35.0 9.77 10.29 5.40 0.51 3.7 Ron Villone 2.45 33.0 6.00 6.82 5.18 0.27 10.3 Scott Proctor 4.22 49.0 7.90 7.16 3.86 1.29 10.2 Mike Myers 0.68 13.1 6.75 7.43 2.70 0.68 8.0 Matt Smith 0.00 8.0 3.38 6.75 6.75 0.00 5.4 Theodore Beam 4.91 3.2 12.27 7.36 2.45 2.45 0.4Mariano Rivera is Mariano Rivera. His strikeout rate is down a bit, but even when guys make contact they rarely get the ball out of the infield. Rivera is the measuring stick for all closers past, present, and future. Ron Villone has been a nice surprise for the Yankees, but Kyle Farnsworth and his bloated contract has been a big disappointment.
WPA Top Two
Mariano Rivera, 175.8% WPA
Ron Villone, 53.9% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Scott Proctor, -59.6% WPA
Tanyon Sturtze, -52.3% WPA
Bench
Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP Kelly Stinnett C 74 .224 .278 .313 0 0 (-3.0) Bubba Crosby* OF 61 .245 .310 .321 2 1 (-2.0) Kevin Reese OF 8 .429 .500 .429 0 0 0.9Any strength that the Yankees bench had has been used to plug holes in the starting lineup left by their hobbled veterans. Stinnett and Crosby are useless with the bat and Kevin Reese's eight plate appearances aren't much to go on.
Manager
Joe Torre has been managing the Yankees forever; his tactical management can be spotty at times, but his command of his clubhouse and of the media is unrivaled (sound familiar?)
# Times AL Rank Pinch Hit 32 10/14 Stolen Base Attempts 78 5/14 Sacrifice Bunts 17 7/14Key Injuries
Gary Sheffield Hideki Matsui Robinson Cano Tanyon Sturtze Darrell Rasner Carl Pavano Octavio DotelPayroll
Team Payroll MLB Rank $198,662,180 1/30