Up Next: Houston Astros

Record

NL CENTRAL      W   L   PCT   GB    HOME   ROAD   RS   RA
St. Louis      53  41  .564   ---  31-19  22-22  477  463
Cincinnati     50  46  .521   4.0  25-24  25-22  481  493
Houston        46  50  .479   8.0  28-22  18-28  436  458
Milwaukee      46  50  .479   8.0  29-20  17-30  444  514
Chicago Cubs   37  57  .394  16.0  17-28  20-29  383  476
Pittsburgh     35  62  .361  19.5  24-26  11-36  447  511

 W    L     RS     RA     W1     L1     W2     L2     W3     L3
46   50    436    458    45.8   50.2   44.0   52.0   42.5   53.5

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Astros have performed about three wins above their expected third-order winning percentage. Whether this is due to good managing, "small ball", or just luck, it's hard to tell, but in this instance I would guess luck. The Astros have been disproportionately successful in one-run games, going 15-9 this season. Unless they have an unusual propensity for winning close games, we would expect that to even out over teh course of the season.

Starting Rotation

                  W   L    ERA    IP     H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Roy Oswalt*       6   7   3.22   131.1   9.46   5.96   1.64   0.82   40.0
Roger Clemens     2   3   2.43    33.1   7.83   7.29   2.43   0.54   10.7
Andy Pettitte     8  10   5.08   133.0  10.89   7.31   3.32   1.35    8.6
Brandon Backe*    1   0   2.25     8.0   4.50   3.38   2.25   2.25    3.5
Taylor Buchholz*  6   7   5.31   101.2   7.97   6.29   2.57   1.50    8.0

*  asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

With Roger Dodger back in the fold the Astros have a formidable one-two punch at the front end of the rotation. The biggest problem for the 'Stros' pitching has been the disappearance of last year's model of Andy Pettitte. He has been walking far too many batters and giving up an absurd number of hits. We're obviously not privy to these things, but you have to wonder if he's concealing an injury and/or tipping his pitches. Pettitte has been too good a pitcher for too long to just fall off a cliff like this, so I'm sure it's pretty frustrating down in Houston.

WPA Top Two
Roy Oswalt, 253.5% WPA
Christopher Sampson, 48.1% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Wandy Rodriguez, -74.3% WPA
Andy Pettitte, -58.1% WPA

Starting Lineup

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP   NL Rank
Brad Ausmus         C    299   .243   .308   .303    3   1  (-8.2)   27/29
Lance Berkman#      1B   386   .318   .404   .599    1   1   39.5     2/22
Craig Biggio        2B   375   .268   .332   .426    1   1   12.0    12/24
Adam Everett        SS   324   .236   .293   .318    3   3  (-7.6)   17/19
Aubrey Huff*        3B    30   .240   .367   .440    0   0    0.8    18/20
Preston Wilson      LF   375   .279   .317   .419    5   2    1.0    17/21
Chris Burke         CF   235   .296   .378   .498    7   0   19.5     4/25
Orlando Palmeiro*   RF    81   .222   .291   .264    0   1  (-5.1)   16/20

*  asterisks denote left-handed batters
#  pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

Lance Berkman is one of the best hitters in the game and Chris Burke appears to be finally coming into his own. Huff is still an unknown quantity in the NL, but the rest of these guys are not impressive. Biggio you can forgive somewhat because he's about 100, but Brad Ausmus continues to be one of the worst everyday hitters in all of baseball, Preston Wilson continues to fall well short of the expectations heaped on him as a youngster, Adam Everett can't hit a lick, and Orlando Palmeiro ... *shudder*. A word of advice to Mets' pitchers: do not let Berkman beat you. Walk him if you have to, because there's nothing but dreck as far as the eye can see.

WPA Top Two
Lance Berkman, 258.3% WPA
Morgan Ensberg, 66.3% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Brad Ausmus, -169.8% WPA
Adam Everett, -111.1% WPA

Bullpen

                     ERA     IP    H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Brad Lidge          5.60    45.0   8.00  12.80   4.80   1.20    1.9
Dan Wheeler         3.57    40.1   8.48   8.26   2.90   0.67    9.8
Chad Qualls         3.48    54.1   7.29   4.97   2.65   0.99   16.4
Russ Springer       3.93    34.1   6.55   7.08   2.62   1.57    8.6
Trever Miller*      4.72    26.2   9.11  11.14   3.04   2.03    4.4
Dave Borkowski      3.96    38.2   8.38   7.91   2.33   0.70    9.7
Fernando Nieve      4.44    75.0   8.64   6.12   2.76   1.92   13.7

Other than Brad Lidge, who has been walking the ballpark this season, the core of the Astros' bullpen has remained solid. Ex-Met Dan Wheeler has been terrific as usual, and Chad QUalls and Russ Springer continue to pitch well in middle relief.

WPA Top Two
Chad Qualls, 140.0% WPA
Dave Borkowski, 93.2% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Mike Gallo, -111.0% WPA
Brad Lidge, -38.6% WPA

Bench

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP
Eric Munson         C    119   .219   .303   .381   0   0   (-1.4)   
Eric Bruntlett      IF   105   .256   .346   .322   2   1     0.1   
Mike Lamb           IF   245   .321   .373   .520   1   3    15.3   
Luke Scott          OF     9   .333   .333   .444   0   0     0.3   
Willy Taveras       OF   336   .259   .310   .311  13   5   (-5.7)

Mike Lamb has been starting a lot of games and is really the only useful bat in this group. Willy Taveras, who almost won the rookie of the year in 2005, has been dreadful and has basically been replaced in centerfield by Burke.

Manager

The Astros are managed by Phil Garner, who is in his third season in Houston and 14th overall.

                         # Times    NL Rank
Pinch Hit                  146        8/16
Stolen Base Attempts        59       14/16
Sacrifice Bunts             55        2/16

Key Injuries

Morgan Ensberg, 3B

Payroll

Team Payroll   MLB Rank
$92,101,503      9/30