Up Next: Chicago Cubs

by Eric Simon on Jul 24, 2006 12:11 PM EDT

Record

NL CENTRAL        W   L   PCT   GB    HOME   ROAD   RS   RA
St. Louis        56  41  .577  ----  31-19  25-22  491  465
Cincinnati       52  47  .525   5.0  27-25  25-22  496  509
Houston          47  52  .475  10.0  28-22  19-30  447  473
Milwaukee        47  52  .475  10.0  29-20  18-32  460  529
Chicago Cubs     37  60  .381  19.0  17-28  20-32  393  497
Pittsburgh       35  65  .350  22.5  24-26  11-39  452  525

 W    L     RS     RA     W1     L1     W2     L2     W3     L3
37   60    396    497    38.3   58.7   40.9   56.1   40.9   56.1

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

Starting Rotation

                   W   L    ERA    IP     H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Carlos Zambrano*  10   3   3.11   139.0   6.15   9.13   4.92   0.91   44.1
Mark Prior*        0   4   8.14    24.1  11.47   8.88   4.81   1.85  (-7.4)
Greg Maddux*       7  11   4.92   124.1  10.06   5.14   1.59   1.01   14.8
Carlos Marmol      3   4   4.50    48.0   7.31   7.69   6.19   1.31    8.8
Sean Marshall      5   8   4.98   103.0   9.00   5.85   4.02   1.14    9.9

*  asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

Other than Carlos Zambrano, there's not a whole lot to get excited about here. Greg Maddux won his first five starts of the season and has gone 2-11 since. Mark Prior has been awful since coming off the disabled list, but I think he'll figure things out if he can just stay on the field.

WPA Top Two
Carlos Zambrano, 220.4% WPA
Sean Marshall, 17.1% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Mark Prior, -112.1% WPA
Glendon Rusch, -80.1% WPA

Starting Lineup

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS    VORP   NL Rank
Michael Barrett     C    291   .333   .397   .535    0   0    29.9     1/30
Derrek Lee          1B   144   .261   .375   .429    5   4     3.1    20/22
Todd Walker*        2B   339   .282   .355   .389    0   1     7.4    16/24
Ronny Cedeno        SS   355   .252   .278   .333    5   7  (-10.8)   18/19
Aramis Ramirez      3B   390   .266   .326   .511    1   1    13.6    10/20
Matt Murton         LF   294   .278   .345   .373    4   1     0.0    19/22
Juan Pierre*        CF   443   .279   .320   .369   36  10     7.4    11/24
Jacque Jones*       RF   340   .291   .319   .498    6   1    12.6     8/19

*  asterisks denote left-handed batters
#  pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

The best hitter on the Cubs? That'd be catcher Michael Barrett, who has not only been the best offensive catcher in the league this season, but he fulfilled every baseball fan's dream of punching A.J. Pierzynski right in the grillpiece. Derrek Lee has been back for a couple of months but has yet to regain his MVP-like stroke from a year ago. Aramis Ramirez is finally coming out of his prolonged slump, and Juan Pierre, while not an awful player, is perhaps finally being recognized as the overrated speedster that he is. Jacque Jones has been a pleasant surprise for the Cubbies, though he still has zero plate discipline (12 walks in well over 300 PAs) and still can't hit lefties worth a damn (.205/.222/.364). Todd Walker is hitting just enough to keep off the bench, though his defense may push him down around replacement level. Ronny Cedeno is one of the worst everyday players in baseball right now, though Rob Neyer said the same thing about Jose Reyes last season so you never know.

WPA Top Two
Jacque Jones, 167.3% WPA
Michael Barrett, 109.3% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Ronny Cedeno, -278.0% WPA
Juan Pierre, -173.6% WPA

Bullpen

                     ERA     IP    H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Ryan Dempster       4.33    43.2   7.63   8.66   3.92   0.82    3.9
Bobby Howry         3.66    46.2   8.87   8.10   2.31   0.96   12.0
Scott Eyre*         2.22    44.2   7.25  10.07   4.23   1.21   17.7
Glendon Rusch*      7.14    58.0  10.40   8.38   4.19   2.79  (-8.5)
Will Ohman          4.10    41.2   7.13   9.07   3.67   1.30    9.5
Michael Wuertz      6.35     5.2  14.29  11.12   6.35   3.18  (-2.3)
David Aardsma       5.68    19.0   8.05   6.63   7.11   1.89    0.0
Roberto Novoa       5.16    45.1  10.52   6.15   4.57   2.38  (-5.0)

Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre have been terrific. Ryan Dempster has been okay. The rest of this group are probably nice guys.

WPA Top Two
Scott Eyre, 123.1% WPA
Angel Guzman, 8.3% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Ryan Dempster, -149.2% WPA
Scott Williamson, -49.2% WPA

Bench

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP
Henry Blanco        C    114   .240   .289   .442    0   0    0.8   
Phil Nevin          1B   120   .252   .333   .495    0   0    3.7   
Neifi Perez#        IF   194   .249   .260   .351    0   1  (-6.0)   
John Mabry*         1B   116   .222   .328   .333    0   0  (-2.6)   
Angel Pagan#        OF    57   .241   .281   .444    0   1  (-1.2)

Mostly dreck, though Nevin and Pagan have provided some pop off the bench, and Blanco is not terrible for a backup catcher.

Manager

Dusty Baker's reputation as a great manager likely flew out the window over the past couple of seasons. This is the guy who made the following bold proclamation in the face of the OBP revolution:

"Who's been the champions the last seven, eight years?" he asked "Have you ever heard the Yankees talk about on-base percentage and walks? Walks help. But you ain't going to walk across the plate. You're going to hit across the plate. That's the school I come from.
It's called hitting, and it ain't called walking. Do you ever see the top 10 walking? You see top 10 batting average. A lot of those top 10 do walk. But the name of the game is to hit."

Emphasis is mine.

                        # Times    NL Rank
Pinch Hit                 140       14/16
Stolen Base Attempts      100        5/16
Sacrifice Bunts            46        6/16

Key Injuries

Kerry Wood
Freddie Bynum

Payroll

Team Payroll   MLB Rank
$94,841,166      7/30

Tweet Comment 6 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Going to Shea tonight

Last time I was at a Traschel game the dude hit himself a home run. Hi-larious.

So what's with the Milledge-for-Zito talk? Just speculation or has Omar given any indication that he's considering it?

"He even tried to pimp it," Floyd said. "He's got no pimp." Said Wright: "I don't even know what that means."

by Billy Everyteen on Jul 24, 2006 2:32 PM EDT reply actions

Where can

we get the complete list of team salaries? It seems alot of teams have payrols in 90k range and yet the Mets are looked at as big spenders when ther payroll sits at approx 100k.

by udamnwright on Jul 24, 2006 2:45 PM EDT reply actions

Salaries

I use ESPN.com's team salaries.

by Eric Simon on Jul 24, 2006 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Interesting

So the Mets' payroll is only about 27% higher than the median MLB payroll, and just about half the size of the Yankees'. Nor is it significantly higher than the Braves' or the Phillies'. The Fish, meanwhile, committed suicide-by-fire-sale and have only themselves to blame - but according to this site, they won the World Series in 2003 with less than half the Mets' payroll (which was about $117 million that year).

In other words, the Mets' success vis-a-vis their divisional rivals (other than possibly the Nats) can hardly be described as the result of bigger spending.

And frankly, even if it could be, I'm not sure that would be a "bad" thing. Sure, the Mets are fortunate to be a big market team, which means they can afford to pursue a buying-talent strategy instead of playing moneyball, but I think by now we have plenty of examples of how that doesn't guarantee success (as well as examples of the Mets' recent success with farm-raised talent). And anyway, if the franchise is generating the money, you'd blame the ownership more if they didn't re-invest that income into payroll. That's why I don't hate the Yankees organization. I give Steinbrenner credit for investing in his product, and building the brand, rather than sucking profits out of it (as the Times just reminded us).

As much as I sympathize with the squeeze the small-market teams can find themselves in, I don't buy the money argument as an excuse for why teams are failing on the field. It's been pretty conclusively shown that to win, market size is not as important as 1) smart personnel management, and 2) reinvesting profits in the team.

"He even tried to pimp it," Floyd said. "He's got no pimp." Said Wright: "I don't even know what that means."

by Billy Everyteen on Jul 24, 2006 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions