Up Next: Atlanta Braves

Record

NL EAST         W   L   PCT   GB    HOME   ROAD   RS   RA
NY Mets        60  41  .594  ----  30-21  30-20  539  462
Atlanta        48  53  .475  12.0  22-25  26-28  536  513
Florida        47  53  .470  12.5  25-24  22-29  463  468
Philadelphia   46  53  .465  13.0  24-29  22-24  491  521
Washington     46  56  .451  14.5  26-24  20-32  473  523

 W    L     RS     RA     W1     L1     W2     L2     W3     L3
48   53    536    513    52.7   48.3   49.7   51.3   49.6   51.4

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

Starting Rotation

                  W   L    ERA    IP      H/9   SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
John Smoltz       8   5   3.55   147.0   8.57   8.08   2.02   1.04   40.2
Tim Hudson*       8   8   4.87   136.2   9.75   5.60   3.29   0.86   11.4
Horacio Ramirez*  5   3   4.04    62.1  10.40   4.19   2.89   0.58   10.8
Chuck James*      4   1   3.53    43.1   7.48   6.02   2.91   1.87   11.5
Jason Shiell      0   2   7.00     9.0  10.00   8.00   4.00   2.00  (-0.9)

*  asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

The Braves have struggled to get consistent starting pitching all year. John Smoltz has been a workhorse, but they haven't gotten much out of anyone else. Tim Hudson's ERA is approaching 5, and he's walking more batters than usual. Horacio Ramirez is left-handed, so he has that going for him. The Braves are excited about Chuck James, who has pitched well to this point and is second in the rotation in VORP despite pitching just 43.1 innings.

WPA Top Two
John Smoltz, 184.8% WPA
Horacio Ramirez, 124.3% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Jorge Sosa, -176.0% WPA
John Thomson, -78.7% WPA

Starting Lineup

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP   NL Rank
Brian Mccann*       C    278   .341   .399   .549    2   0   30.1     2/30
Adam Laroche*       1B   348   .277   .346   .552    0   2   18.8     9/22
Marcus Giles        2B   409   .249   .342   .367    8   4    6.4    17/24
Edgar Renteria      SS   423   .322   .400   .476   12   4   37.3     1/19
Chipper Jones#      3B   358   .332   .419   .560    5   1   36.9     3/21
Ryan Langerhans*    LF   269   .249   .338   .392    0   2  (-1.6)   22/23
Andruw Jones        CF   422   .276   .353   .530    3   1   29.8     2/24
Jeffrey Francoeur   RF   437   .263   .286   .456    1   6  (-3.1)   16/19

*  asterisks denote left-handed batters
#  pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

Edgar Renteria has been reborn now that he has returned to the National League. He is leading NL shortstops in VORP and has an outstanding .400 on-base percentage. Brian Mccann has been terrific as well, and trails only Michael Barrett in VORP among catchers. Chipper Jones has actually been relatively healthy this year, and he's putting up his typical gaudy rate stats. Forgiving the fact that he has played for the Braves all of these years, Jones has perhaps been one of the most under-appreciated hitters of the past decade or so. Andruw Jones is doing his best to prove that last year wasn't a fluke, as he trails only a certain Carlos Beltran in VORP among centerfielders.

Marcus Giles isn't hitting for any power, but he has drawn enough walks to make his on-base percentage somewhat respectable. Still, a disappointing season for him to be sure. Jeff Francoeur is the outfielder equivalent of Tony Batista, and unless he improves his approach at the plate you might see him in the Japanese leagues before too long. Adam Laroche has had a nice year for himself, getting on base at a decent clip and socking many more homeruns than I would have expected of him. In fact, his VORP is higher than that of Carlos Delgado.

Even with Jones in center, the Braves have one of the least productive outfields in the league. The make up for it by having a terrific left-side of the infield.

WPA Top Two
Andruw Jones, 204.1% WPA
Edgar Renteria, 173.5% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Matt Diaz, -112.2% WPA
Ryan Langerhans, -99.6% WPA

Bullpen

                     ERA    IP    H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Bob Wickman         0.00    3.0   3.00   6.00   0.00   0.00    2.1
Jorge Sosa          5.59   85.1  10.86   5.80   3.27   2.11  (-3.2)
Ken Ray             3.26   47.0   7.09   7.09   4.21   1.15   15.2
Oscar Villarreal    4.26   50.2  10.30   4.80   3.38   1.60    7.6
Macay McBride       4.55   31.2   7.96   5.68   6.82   0.28    3.7
Chad Paronto        2.84   31.2   7.96   8.24   3.69   0.57   11.7
Tyler Yates         3.22   22.1   7.66   7.66   5.64   0.81    6.3

Ken Ray and Chad Paronto have been quite good, and even former Met Tyler Yates has been decent despite walking almost six batters per nine innings (!). Not pictured: Chris Reitsma and his 8.68 ERA in 28 innings, Peter Moylan and his 7.04 ERA in 7.2 innings, Lance Cormier and his 6.12 ERA in 32.1 innings, and Kevin Barry and his 5.91 ERA in 10.2 innings.

WPA Top Two
Macay McBride, 34.5% WPA
Lance Cormier, 32.5% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Mike Remlinger, -145.1% WPA
Jorge Sosa, -136.6% WPA

Bench

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP
Todd Pratt          C    116   .212   .261   .317    1   0  (-5.3)   
Scott Thorman*      1B    72   .246   .278   .493    0   0    0.4   
Pete Orr*           IF    87   .205   .224   .301    2   2  (-6.4)   
Wilson Betemit#     IF   218   .281   .341   .497    2   1   11.4   
Matt Diaz           OF   165   .314   .344   .438    3   2    4.7 

Wilson Betemit and Matt Diaz have acquitted themselves quite well. Betemit has filled in at a variety of positions, and Mets fans will remember him as the guy who hit the would-be game-winning homerun off of Billy Wagner earlier in the season before Cliff Floyd went yard later that inning to tie things up.

Manager

Bobby Cox has been the Braves' manager since forever.

                         # Times    NL Rank
Pinch Hit                  175        2/16
Stolen Base Attempts        64       11/16
Sacrifice Bunts             44        9/16

Key Injuries

Brian Jordan
John Thomson
Kyle Davies
Phil Stockman

Payroll

Team Payroll   MLB Rank
$92,461,852      8/30