Up Next: Pittsburgh Pirates

After a demoralizing 1-5 swing through Beantown and the Bronx, the Mets are in desperate need for the comfort of home and the impotence of the National League.

Record

NL CENTRAL     W   L   PCT   GB     HOME   ROAD    RS   RA
St. Louis     44  36  .550  ----   26-17  18-19   403  385
Cincinnati    44  38  .537   1.0   20-22  24-16   413  419
Houston       40  42  .488   5.0   25-18  15-24   377  406
Milwaukee     40  43  .482   5.5   25-17  15-26   383  450
Chicago Cubs  30  51  .370  14.5   14-25  16-26   328  425
Pittsburgh    28  55  .337  17.5   20-24   8-31   381  435

 W    L     RS     RA     W1     L1     W2     L2     W3     L3
28   55    381    438    36.0   47.0   33.8   49.2   33.4   49.6

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Pirates have actually underperformed their expected record by more than five games, which is outrageously high for a half-season. In fact, their raw pythagorean record is a full *eight* games better than their actual record.

Starting Rotation

                  W   L    ERA    IP      H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9    VORP
Zach Duke*        5   7   4.92   106.0   10.44   5.26   3.40   0.85    11.3
Paul Maholm*      2   7   4.97    92.1   11.11   5.95   4.58   0.97     9.6
Ian Snell         7   6   5.00    93.2   10.67   7.21   3.36   1.15     7.5
Kip Wells*        0   3  15.19    10.2   16.88   3.38   5.91   1.69  (-11.2)
Tom Gorzelanny*   0   0   3.60     5.0   10.80  10.80   5.40   0.00     1.4

*  asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

Former ace Oliver Perez was recently demoted to AAA, so this is what's left. Kip Wells spent much of the season on the disabled list and the rest of it pitching poorly. Ian Snell is the only one with even respectable peripherals and his ERA is 5.00 even. The Pirates' struggles start with this rotation, and it's no wonder they are in the NL Central cellar. Again.

WPA Top Two
Ian Snell, 10.2% WPA
Tom Gorzelanny, 5.2% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Oliver Perez, -116.5% WPA
Kip Wells, -109.1% WPA

Starting Lineup

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP   NL Rank
Ron Paulino         C    221   .310   .362   .394    0   0    7.6     9/25
Sean Casey*         1B   164   .301   .384   .441    0   0    6.6    14/21
Jose Castillo       2B   308   .282   .338   .457    4   3   15.0     8/21
Freddy Sanchez      3B   291   .363   .399   .530    1   1   29.4     4/19
Jack Wilson         SS   316   .258   .297   .375    2   1    1.5    13/19
Jason Bay           LF   367   .281   .395   .536    6   2   26.6     2/21
Jose Bautista       CF   181   .258   .348   .535    1   2   10.2     8/22
Jeromy Burnitz*     RF   253   .226   .274   .426    1   1  (-6.4)   17/19

*  asterisks denote left-handed batters
#  pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

Some fine hitters here, none moreso than Jason Bay, though Freddy Sanchez is having a breakout season at third base. With the exception of Jack Wilson (thankfully he won't be going to the All Star game), most of thtese guys can hit.

WPA Top Two
Freddy Sanchez, 76.6% WPA
Craig Wilson, 62.6% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Jeromy Burnitz, -169.2% WPA
Jack Wilson, -165.1% WPA

Bullpen

                     ERA     IP    H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Mike Gonzalez       2.67    33.2   8.29   8.55   5.35   0.27   12.8
Roberto Hernandez   2.43    37.0   8.27   6.32   4.14   0.73    8.0
Salomon Torres      4.50    54.0  10.50   5.50   2.67   1.00    6.6
Damaso Marte        3.38    29.1   8.90  11.66   4.30   0.92    6.0
John Grabow         5.57    32.1  11.13   6.96   4.18   1.67  (-0.1)
Matt Capps          3.53    43.1   9.14   6.65   1.04   1.04   12.4
Jonah Bayliss       3.00     3.0   9.00  12.00  12.00   0.00    1.0

Gonzalez and Hernandez have been impressive, though their walk rates leave a lot to be desired. Pretty decent collection of arms here, actually, and far superior to what they've got in the rotation.

WPA Top Two
Mike Gonzalez, 76.4% WPA
Salomon Torres, 28.7% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Damaso Marte, -70.7% WPA
Ryan Vogelsong, -60.6% WPA

Bench

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG  SB  CS    VORP
Humberto Cota       C     76   .229   .289   .243   0   0   (-4.4)   
Craig Wilson        1B   249   .275   .357   .505   1   0    11.7
Jose Hernandez      IF    81   .230   .287   .351   0   0   (-2.2)   
Joe Randa           3B   112   .243   .286   .350   0   0   (-3.6)
Mike Edwards        OF    18   .188   .235   .188   0   0   (-1.9)   
Nathan McLouth*     OF   208   .226   .296   .333   8   1   (-3.3)

Not much to write home about here except for Craig Wilson, who actually starts more often than Sean Casey at first base. Rotoworld lists Casey as the starter, so...

Manager

Jim Tracy is in his first season as manager of the Pirates after previously managing the Dodgers.

                        # Times    NL Rank
Pinch Hit                 134        4/16
Stolen Base Attempts       39       15/16
Sacrifice Bunts            26       13/16

Key Injuries

Ryan Doumit
Victor Santos

Payroll

Team Payroll   MLB Rank
$46,867,750      27/30