Up Next: Florida Marlins

The Marlins come to town for a four-game series, including a double-dip on Saturday, before the Mets' caravan heads to Pittsburgh for the All-Star break.

Record

NL EAST         W   L   PCT   GB    HOME   ROAD   RS   RA  Strk    L10
NY Mets        51  34  .600  ----  25-16  26-18  444  385  Won  3  4-6  
Philadelphia   38  46  .452  12.5  19-25  19-21  404  446  Lost 2  3-7  
Atlanta        38  48  .442  13.5  19-22  19-26  423  435  Won  2  6-4
Florida        36  46  .439  13.5  18-20  18-26  390  391  Lost 1  4-6
Washington     38  49  .437  14.0  20-21  18-28  394  452  Won  1  5-5  

 W    L     RS     RA     W1     L1     W2     L2     W3     L3
36   46    390    391    40.9   41.1   39.2   42.8   37.8   44.2

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The "upstart" Marlins are actually underperforming their expected record by almost two wins, and are underperforming their raw pythagorean record by almost *five* wins.

Starting Rotation

                   W   L    ERA    IP     H/9    SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Dontrelle Willis*  5   7   3.96   116.0   9.78   5.20   2.64   0.78   21.8
Scott Olsen*       6   4   4.17    86.1   7.40   7.71   3.96   1.25   11.5
Ricky Nolasco*     4   4   3.97    70.1   9.98   6.40   2.30   1.28    8.8
Josh  Johnson*     6   2   2.34    80.2   7.25   7.70   4.13   0.67   26.8
Anibal Sanchez     1   0   6.60    15.0  12.60   4.80   4.20   1.80  (-2.3)

*  asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

Willis is the elder statesman at 24 years old, with everyone else clocking in at either 22 or 23. Compare that to the Mets, who have a 40-year-old, a 34-year-old, a 35-year-old, a 36-year-old*, and a 33-year-old (not counting Maine, who is just 25, and Pelfrey, who has yet to join the team). As happens with young pitchers, most of these guys struggle with their control a bit, and three of them have given up more than a homerun every nine innings. Willis has rebounded from an atrocious start and is pitching much better of late.

* El Duque is listed as being 36 years old, though it's probably closer to 46.

WPA Top Two
Josh Johnson, 167.0% WPA
Scott Olsen, 73.4% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Brian Moehler, -152.0% WPA
Sergio Mitre, -27.9% WPA

Starting Lineup

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP   NL Rank
Miguel Olivo        C    214   .291   .321   .492    2   2   10.6     7/24
Mike Jacobs*        1B   281   .274   .352   .492    2   0   13.1    10/22
Dan Uggla           2B   330   .311   .368   .519    5   2   30.9     2/21
Hanley Ramirez      SS   347   .274   .341   .411   25   4   19.5     4/19
Miguel Cabrera      3B   355   .342   .434   .571    7   5   42.2     1/19
Josh Willingham     LF   283   .267   .353   .465    2   0   10.5    10/21
Reggie Abercrombie  CF   221   .211   .279   .337    4   4  (-7.4)   23/23
Jeremy Hermida*     RF   175   .281   .364   .412    2   0    5.2     9/19

*  asterisks denote left-handed batters
#  pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

Miguel Cabrera continues to be one of the best young hitters in the game, and is pacing NL third basemen in VORP. Dan Uggla, a Rule V draftee that Florida nabbed from the prospect-rich Diamondbacks, has been the second-best player on the team. Hanley Ramirez has been great (for a shortstop) with the bat as well, and has swiped 25 bags in just 29 attempts, an 86% success rate. Everyone else here has been good-to-great, with the exception of Reggie Abercrombie, who has been dreadful in just about every conceivable way.

WPA Top Two
Miguel Cabrera, 226.1% WPA
Daniel Uggla, 76.6% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Reginald Abercrombie, -131.3% WPA
Alfredo Amezaga, -78.4% WPA

Bullpen

                     ERA     IP     H/9   SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Joe Borowski        3.94    32.0   7.88   7.31   4.50   1.12    7.3
Logan Kensing       3.33    24.1   6.29  10.73   5.92   0.37    7.4
Matt Herges         4.15    39.0  10.85   4.85   3.00   0.92    3.8
Jason Vargas        6.27    33.0  10.09   5.73   7.09   1.36  (-5.2)
Randy Messenger     2.81    32.0   8.72   6.47   2.25   0.56    8.3
Taylor Tankersley   2.35     7.2   7.04  10.57   7.04   0.00    2.1
Yusmeiro Petit      7.41    17.0  14.29   6.35   1.06   1.06  (-2.8)

Kensing and Messenger have both been very good, and Joe Borowski has been decent if unspectacular as the Marlins' closer. Tayler Tankersley has been solid in limited action, and former Met farmhand Yusmeiro Petit has been terrible, allowing more than fourteen hits every nine innings. His walk rate is terrific, but little else is worth writing home about. He's still a kid, though, so there's plenty of time for him to work things out.

WPA Top Two
Joe Borowski, 61.0% WPA
Taylor Tankersley, 51.3% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Matt Herges, -119.0% WPA
Jason Vargas, -80.3% WPA

Bench

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG  SB  CS   VORP
Matt Treanor        C    109   .202   .296   .277   0   1  (-5.5)   
Wes Helms           IF   122   .266   .325   .486   0   2    3.2   
Alfredo Amezaga#    IF   141   .250   .314   .355   6   4  (-0.4)   
Joe Borchard#       OF   141   .234   .326   .379   0   2  (-2.5)   
Cody Ross           OF    83   .222   .305   .375   0   0  (-1.5)

Other than Wes Helms, a bunch of dreck occupying the Marlins' bench.

Manager

After just one year as a coach -- Joe Torre's bench coach in 2005 -- Joe Girardi was handed the reigns of the shoestring-budgeted Marlins, and they have surprised everyone by not being any worse than the Braves, Nats and Phillies.

                        # Times    NL Rank
Pinch Hit                 125       10/16
Stolen Base Attempts       89        2/16
Sacrifice Bunts            38        7/16

Key Injuries

Sergio Mitre, SP
Brian Moehler, SP
Carlos Martinez, RP

Payroll

Team Payroll   MLB Rank
$14,344,500     30/30