Wright and Reyes Deals

by pj on Aug 7, 2006 12:08 AM EDT

I am sure someone else will do a better analysis of these deals and how they impact the mets future, but here is what I've seen so far.

Reyes signed a 4 year deal
1.5 M signing bonus
2007 2.5M
2008 4.0M
2009 5.8M
2010 9.0M
2011 11M (Option)

DW signed a 6 year deal
1.5 M signing bonus
2007 1.0M
2008 5.0M
2009 7.5M
2010 10M
2011 14M
2012 15M
2013 16M (Option)

these deals are bargains for the mets especially 2007-2009. DW's 16M in 2013 is a bargain compared to A-Rod's 2006 salary. How cheap (relative to the going rate for all-star 3b) will that seem in 2013?

Overall the mets have tied up some $$ for two allstars that comprise the core of their team through the opening of their new stadium.

We have 3rd and short covered for:
2007 3.5M
2008 9.0M
2009 13.25M
2010 19.0M

if we pick up Josey's option
2011 25M

A-Rod and Jeter's 2006 salary? 46.2M

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Comments

The Wright deal represents closer to fair market

This is about what he would be due given his arbitration clock and a projection of his expected performance curve over these years. He still has to make it worth it, and the extra $15M at the end will help motivate that.

The Reyes deal remains a bargain however. His injury history may have something to do with that, but he's been incredibly healthy the past season and a half.

Anyway I'm pleased as punch with these signings. It wouldn't have gotten cheaper. Compare to Beltran. Fortunately, Beltran is still performing even being set for several lives. I think for Beltran the postseason is a huge motivator...he wants his playing to matter, and with this team it does.

by peeder on Aug 7, 2006 1:41 AM EDT reply actions

the impact

on young players around the league cannot be discounted.

the mets just set a standard that the rest of the young players in the league will notice.

the young-n-cheap business model just got harder to sustain.

Pedro offers you his protection.

by pj on Aug 7, 2006 9:40 AM EDT reply actions

disagree

"the young-n-cheap business model just got harder to sustain."

Actually, I think Omar underpaid Wright and Reyes (especially Reyes), so I don't see how this would hurt the plan for other teams with smaller budgets. The Wright and Reyes contracts are exactly the kind of deals that the A's/Twins/Marlins/Indians of the world (i.e. the smart low-revenue teams) would give their players. Sure, neither Wright nor Reyes is got peanuts in their deals, but compared to some of the more absurd contracts out there (like the $189 million given to an overrated SS on the other side of the Triboro), these are steals.

One of the reasons these deals make me so excited is that the Mets did exactly what the A's or Twins would have done (lock up good, young players for relatively cheap), yet because they're the Mets, they will have boatloads of money left over to spend on trades, free agents, and farm development.

Keep Maine in the rotation!

by Greenpoint Ian on Aug 7, 2006 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions

marlins?

they just lost all but one of their young stud pitchers because they didn't sign them to this kind of deal.

Josh Beckett
Carl Pavano
AJ Burnett
etc.

Have they signed Cabrera yet?

Maybe they'll learn their lesson this time, but now mike jacobs, hanley ramirez, dan uggla, and their young pitchers are 1-2 years away from asking for deals similar to what DW and JR got.

Pedro offers you his protection.

by pj on Aug 7, 2006 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

But,

To be fair, the Marlins got a pretty large haul of MLB-ready prospects in their last few deals, too. I think (though obviously this is a guess) that they will pay the ones who develop into good players to stay in Florida and form the core of another very good team in the next couple of years. The question is whether retaining, say, Beckett on an expensive long-term deal would have made the Marlins more or less competitive in the long run -- since their approach is clearly going to be "rebuilding" for the next year or two, would Beckett at big money help them field a championship-caliber team in 2009? I'm not sure they made a mistake doing what they did this offseason.

As an addendum, there's a really interesting chapter ("Is Wayne Huyzenga a Genius?") in Baseball Beyond the Numbers on the subject of paying for players' future, not past, performance and ripping it up and starting over when they start to get old and expensive. I thought the rest of the book was pretty uneven, but it had a few very good chapters like this one.

by anonymous on Aug 7, 2006 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Beckett/Pavano/Burnett?

Every one of those pitchers is grossly overpaid. The Marlins have a fantastic young pitching staff for bargain basement prices. Remember, the whole "Moneyball" small-market model of success is exploiting market inefficiencies to pay bargain-basement prices for talent. The Marlins seem to be doing it again, while the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays grossly overpay for the above former Marlins.

Anyway, I was just replying to your earlier suggestion that the Wright and Reyes signings would hurt the small-market model for winning. I don't think it does, because the Mets used that model and locked up Wright and Reyes for what should be far below market value.

Keep Maine in the rotation!

by Greenpoint Ian on Aug 7, 2006 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

i hear ya

but the mets have just upset the apple cart by putting big money on the table so early in the career.

the marlins have a ton of guys on their roster who are in similar situations and now the time-frame for signing them has just moved up. effectively, the marlins only have 2-3 years of rookie salary before these kids want a contract. maybe they can sign them to the same type of backloaded deal that DW got. If they can do it without a no-trade clause (DW can be traded) and spin them to a big market then ok, but how many prospects are going to work out the way the deals they made this year did?

p.s. the whole league can't adopt this model because the expensive talent has to go somewhere. If I am cabrera, I am on the phone with my agent right now asking where my DW money is.

Pedro offers you his protection.

by pj on Aug 7, 2006 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

it's a popular strategy

Some small-to-medium-market teams have decided to use this pre-emptive contract strategy with their core young players, too. The Devil Rays gave Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli deals running through free agency and including options for the first couple FA years, the A's wrapped up Danny Haren, etc.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/printarticle/avoiding-arbitration-and-locking-up-free-agents/

The key benefit for low-payroll teams is avoiding the uncertainty of arbitration. One star young player winning his arbitration decision can blow a team's whole yearly budget in a small market. This is a way of managing that risk and providing a predictable pay structure for both sides.

by anonymous on Aug 7, 2006 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Indians did that too

With Pronk and V-Mart, I think. Very smart, especially in Hafner's case, because otherwise he'd be commanding huge money in a year or two. Hopefully by 2011 Wright is good enough that 14 million looks like a pittance compared to what he could be making (Jeter or Giambi money, for instance).

When asked why I was a Mets fan, I responded, "pain is my lifeblood."

by wrightHOF on Aug 7, 2006 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe Hafner didn't get it that great

He's only signed through 2007 with an option for 2008. Don't know how much.

V-Mart is signed through 2009 (option for 2010). Original deal was 5 years, 15.5 million. Pretty good deal, seeing as he's now a 27 year old catcher OPSing .845.

When asked why I was a Mets fan, I responded, "pain is my lifeblood."

by wrightHOF on Aug 7, 2006 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

it doesn't matter

what Miggy or those other young Marlins want. The team hold the cards through the 6 years. If he wants DW money, the Marlins can tell him to pound sand basically and he is still under their control.

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win

by DoctorK16 on Aug 7, 2006 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

exactly

"If I am cabrera, I am on the phone with my agent right now asking where my DW money is."

That's my point. If Cabrera says, "I want what David Wright got", then the Marlins should be able to afford it, because what David Wright got far below what he probably could have gotten in arbitration in 3 years or on the open market in 4. The key for the Marlins is to target the correct players to lock up. In other words, lock up Cabrera, but let overrated injury-risks like Pavano and Burnett go. Also, don't play around with said correct players. Don't do what the Yankees did where they never tied up Jeter and then had to grossly overpay him, because then you won't be able to afford the guy.

Keep Maine in the rotation!

by Greenpoint Ian on Aug 7, 2006 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions