Young, Rangers Agree on Extension

by Eric Simon on Mar 1, 2007 2:23 PM EST

Shortstop Michael Young has reportedly signed a five-year, $80 million extension with the Rangers. This is interesting to Mets' fans because:

a) In his chat at DallasNews.com yesterday Evan Grant intimated that the Rangers couldn't afford to sign both Young and Mark Teixeira to long-term deals.

b) Teixeira is a free agent after 2008.

c) Carlos Delgado is also a free agent after 2008.

Teixeira is just 26 years old, and even in an off year in 2007 he still hit .282/.371/.514 with 89 walks and 79 extra-base hits. He also hit .291/.394/.605 in the second half. He also has two gold gloves and, unlike some other players, advanced defensive metrics tend to support the voters on this one.

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Not Sure About Teixeira in 2009

His three year splits home/away are not that great. Here is his away rate line:

.278/.367/.526/.893

versus a total line:

.288 .374 .549 .923

and home:

.299 .380 .573 .953

Assuming that he has a production spike the next two years, his age 27 and 28 seasons, the Mets would probably have to give him a 7 year deal based on a slight improvement in his total line, while likely to receive production that is in line with his current away line for the beginning of the deal and then a decrease in his production from that away line over the second half of the deal. Teixeira strikes me at the moment as a prototypical bad choice in that he'll be exiting his prime, expect to be compensated for his prime performance and want a long deal into his middle/late thirties. While he walks a fair amount, he's not incredibly patient and he's not particularly fast. PECOTA (subscription only) sees him doing fairly well from 2009-2011, though. His projected VORPs for 2007-2011 are 34.0, 39.8, 34.8 (first hypothetical year with the Mets) 29.9, 29.1. (Mets years in bold)
So it seems like he'd be worth about 1 win to a win and a half less by the second year of the deal. I guess if the Mets can get him for a shorter deal, say 4 years, he'd be worth it, but if he wants a longer deal the Mets should forget it.

by OronosFemur on Mar 1, 2007 3:24 PM EST reply actions

I also meant to say

that his agent is Boras, so we know the contract demands will be high, both for dollars and term.

by OronosFemur on Mar 1, 2007 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

Those aren't bad road numbers.

Given the launching pad he plays in, I expected a more dramatic home/road disparity. I see relatively little, which means he's not just a product of a friendly park. He must be fairly patient at the plate because his OBA is 86 points above his BA. And who cares about a first baseman's speed anyway?

I agree that 7 years is too long, but 4-5 years is reasonable for a contract starting at age 29. I'm sure he'll get plenty of interest from the Mets and others.

by madisonmetsfan on Mar 2, 2007 1:20 PM EST up reply actions