Kevin Kernan is a Smart Dude

by Eric Simon on Mar 1, 2007 5:54 PM EST in Interweb

At his blog for the New York Post, Kevin Kernan explains why batting David Wright second -- as he did to start today's exhibition game -- makes a whole lot of sense.

Batting Wright second would create so many scoring opportunities, just like the first inning today here at Tradition Field. If Reyes gets on, with his speed he can steal second so you don't need the two-hitter to give himself up that much. Then Wright can hack away.
Reyes lined out in the first, Wright then doubled to right; another good sign, hitting the ball the other way and Carlos Beltran bombed a triple off the centerfield wall, scoring Wright. Delgado scored on Carlos Delgado's sacrifice fly to left. Lo Duca could slide into the six hole behind Moises Alou. Alou, if healthy, is a solid No. 5 hitter. By batting Wright second you also have, what I call, the turnover effect. When the lineup turns over later in the game and if there are men on base, Reyes and Wright give you RBI power right at the top.

Wright batting second is a much better idea than Lo Duca batting second. Wright has plenty of pop, but he isn't really a power hitter and would probably be better served as a table-setter. Lo Duca makes plenty of contact, but he has no power and never walks. As Kernan points out, Jose Reyes doesn't need anybody's help getting from first to second, and it makes zero sense to send Lo Duca up there to give himself up either via bunt or right-side groundout.

Let Wright tote his high-three-hundreds on-base percentage into the two-hole so that the big bats -- Carloses Beltran and Delgado, and Moises Alou -- have ducks on the pond to drive in. As Manny Acta will tell you, a team will score more runs with a man on first and no outs than with a man on second and one out.

I like Lo Duca quite a bit, but the odds of him hitting .318 and reaching base 35% of the time as he did last year are extremely long indeed.

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Kevin Kernan

Super Genius.

Watch me paste this pathetic palooka with a powerful paralyzing perfect pachydermous percussion pitch.

by Mr. Met on Mar 1, 2007 6:18 PM EST 0 recs

Oh and the ideal lineup, as I've posted before

is:

Reyes
Wright
Beltran
Delgado
Alou
Green
LoDuca
Valentin

(Dookie at 7, or even 8, not 6, to maintain L/R)

Watch me paste this pathetic palooka with a powerful paralyzing perfect pachydermous percussion pitch.

by Mr. Met on Mar 1, 2007 6:21 PM EST 0 recs

Yea

Tough to argue about any of that. Well, except for Green starting, but given that, I don't think your proposed lineup can be improved upon.

by Eric Simon on Mar 1, 2007 6:44 PM EST up 0 recs

Thanks Eric.

I refrained from re-posting my preferred platoon lineup which includes Alou/Johnson in left and Milledge/Endy in right with Green as your off-the-bench lefty PH until we can work out a trade for a bag-of-balls guy. Just trying to keep it real. Willie does love him some veteran outfielder.

Watch me paste this pathetic palooka with a powerful paralyzing perfect pachydermous percussion pitch.

by Mr. Met on Mar 1, 2007 6:58 PM EST up 0 recs

I beg to differ...

I totally disgree that the Mets would be better served with Wright batting second rather than LoDuca.

LoDuca's effectiveness cannot be measured by his .350 OBP alone.

His value in the two hole comes from his ability to take pitches. He sees 3.8 pitches per plate appearance as opposed to 2.9 for Wright.

He is a career .291 hitter but hits .398 with runners in scoring position and he hits .340 when he leads off an inning. That is nothing to sneeze at my Mets friends.

Last year he struck out only 38 times all year, that was in 512 at-bats! And if you think that's amazing last year he had more walks(34) than strikeouts (31). David Wright struck out 113 times in 2006 and again in 2005 so his patience has not improved.

He hit a team leading .369 in the second half and overall on the year he hit .300 against both lefthanders and righthanders.

Any manager who knows these facts about LoDuca would bat him second. Willie isn't a genius for batting him there, the fact is he's the only real number two hitter on the team.

LoDuca had 39 doubles last year, and 24 of them drove in a run.

Maybe someday Wright can be a top of the order hitter, maybe not. I agree with most scouts who have always projected Wright to be a middle of the order hitter with some speed, much like Jeff Bagwell.

I always enjoy your blogs.

Joe

by MetsMerized on Mar 1, 2007 10:37 PM EST 0 recs

Well...

His value in the two hole comes from his ability to take pitches. He sees 3.8 pitches per plate appearance as opposed to 2.9 for Wright.

Actually, in 2006 David Wright saw 3.93 pitches per plate appearance; Paul Lo Duca saw just 3.45.

He is a career .291 hitter but hits .398 with runners in scoring position and he hits .340 when he leads off an inning. That is nothing to sneeze at my Mets friends.

Actually, Lo Duca is a career .315/.385/.433 hitter with runners in scoring position. Wright is a career .325/.411/.545 hitter with runners in scoring position. For his career, Lo Duca is a .282/.321/.433 hitter when leading off an inning; Wright has hit .314/.380/.573 when leading off an inning. Also, if we are debating the relative merits of a #2 hitter, we are probably talking about his usefulness batting second in the first inning. To that point, what he does when leading off an inning is not really germane to the discussion.

There is a distinct but subtle difference between "patience" (or "plate discipline") and "strike zone judgement". The former refers to a player's ability to recognize pitches and work out walks. The latter refers to his ability to command the strike zone and avoid striking out. Lo Duca has the latter but not the former. Wright has the former AND the latter, though his strike zone judgement isn't nearly as sound as Lo Duca's. I will also contend that a strikeout is rarely worse than any other kind of out, especially with a runner on first base.

He hit a team leading .369 in the second half and overall on the year he hit .300 against both lefthanders and righthanders.

Lo Duca hit .338/.369/.450 in the second half of 2006. Wright hit .305/.375/.469, lower batting average but equivalent on-base and slugging percentages. Lo Duca's .338 average did lead the team in the second half, but that was about all that he led.

LoDuca had 39 doubles last year, and 24 of them drove in a run.

Lo Duca had 5 homeruns last year, each driving in at least one run. Wright had 26 homeruns -- more than five times as many as Lo Duca -- each driving in at least one run. He also had 40 doubles to Lo Duca's 39. Too, driving in runs has as much to do with the runners on base as it does the hitter's performance, and numerous studies have shown that "driving in runs" isn't a discernible skill; hitting for power is. Wright does both, for what it's worth.

Maybe someday Wright can be a top of the order hitter, maybe not. I agree with most scouts who have always projected Wright to be a middle of the order hitter with some speed, much like Jeff Bagwell.

Other than the strikeouts, whose detriment is debatable at best, it seems to me that Wright is better at everything you claim makes Lo Duca a better #2 hitter. Not to mention that Wright has better speed. Don't get me wrong; I'm a Lo Duca fan, but I know what he is and what he isn't. He's a decent hitter with no power and no plate discipline who makes contact extraordinarily well. Wright is a great hitter who hits for power and has plate discipline and makes contact slightly less often, but is far and away the superior hitter -- in any spot in the lineup -- than Lo Duca.

I always enjoy your blogs.

Thanks!

by Eric Simon on Mar 1, 2007 11:47 PM EST up 0 recs

Damn Simon

You killed that dude.....

I agree with you 100% bro

"Give the drummer some. Ive already gave the summer some, it's the winters turn" Jay Z

by erik from the bx on Mar 2, 2007 12:08 PM EST up 0 recs

Thanks Brotha

Glad to have you back.

by Eric Simon on Mar 2, 2007 12:24 PM EST up 0 recs

We got us some high comedy right here.

Lo Duca had 5 homeruns last year, each driving in at least one run. Wright had 26 homeruns -- more than five times as many as Lo Duca -- each driving in at least one run.

Watch me paste this pathetic palooka with a powerful paralyzing perfect pachydermous percussion pitch.

by Mr. Met on Mar 2, 2007 12:24 PM EST up 0 recs

Mr. MetsMerized -

I enjoyed your post, despite the subsequent disputation of your stats. Opinions may differ, but stats should be unquestioned (at least by whatever internal definitions are used to compile them).

While I happen to think DW would be our best option at #2, I for one welcome you to back up your analysis or explain how or why your stats differed from Eric's.

Watch me paste this pathetic palooka with a powerful paralyzing perfect pachydermous percussion pitch.

by Mr. Met on Mar 2, 2007 12:31 PM EST up 0 recs

Beltran #2

I said it in the thread for yesterday's game and I'll say it again. Beltran should bat 2nd. He had the highest OBP on the Mets last season. He had the highest P/PA of anyone on the Mets last season (giving Reyes a chance to steal). He also is a very efficient base stealer, for what that's worth.

Plus, you can mess with the opponent's bullpen by sending up the switch hitting Beltran to be followed by Wright, Delgado, and Alou 3-4-5, giving you a B-R-L-R combo.

Anyway, that's my $.02

Driving the Oliver Perez bandwagon!

by Greenpoint Ian on Mar 2, 2007 9:34 AM EST 0 recs

I know its interesting to argue about the batting

order, but once Willie isn't doing anything crazy like batting Beltran 8th or something, it has negligible effect on runs scored. PLD performed well in the 2 last year, and while he likely won't duplicate that, I doubt he'll kill us there.

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win

by DoctorK16 on Mar 2, 2007 10:49 AM EST 0 recs

Batting Order

Most studies that I have seen suggest that the effects of batting order on runs scored is negligible. I know that James did a study comparing conventional lineups to a lineups of descending and ascending OBP. If I recall correctly, there was not a huge disparity between the three. Anyone have the details?

Nevertheless, given the fact that this is one area where a manager has complete control, he might as well get it right. The second spot is where managers most often screw up. Far too often, the worst or second worst hitter in the lineup hits second. It drives me nuts when Willie hits Anderson Hernandez second.

by Shomov on Mar 3, 2007 2:37 PM EST up 0 recs

But can he bunt?

I want my #2 guy bunting in certain situations, especially behind Reyes.

I don't think impressive numbers for Lo Duca are out of the question again. Hitting in the middle of Jose, Carlos, and Carlos is going to bump anyone's prodcution.

"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Mar 5, 2007 12:09 PM EST 0 recs