Up Next: Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates

by Eric Simon on Jul 24, 2007 9:02 AM EDT

After their jubilant flight home from Los Angeles and a much-deserved off day on Monday, the Mets open a homestand against some of the suppler teams of the National League. Nothing is guaranteed, and you've gotta go out there and beat them just the same. First up are the Pirates de Pittsburgh.

Record

NL CENTRAL	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	Streak	Last 10
Milwaukee	55	44	.556	-	36-17	19-27	473	436	Lost 1	6-4
Chicago Cubs	51	46	.526	3	27-24	24-22	452	400	Lost 2	7-3
St. Louis	45	50	.474	8	21-22	24-28	414	492	Won 1	5-5
Houston	42	57	.424	13	24-23	18-34	432	494	Lost 1	3-7
Pittsburgh	41	56	.423	13	23-29	18-27	394	473	Lost 1	2-8
Cincinnati	42	58	.420	13.5	21-26	21-32	467	516	Won 1	5-5

W	L	RS	RA	W1	L1	W2	L2	W3	L3
41.	56.	394	473	40.3	56.7	38.4	58.6	38.0	59.0

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

Pittsburgh stinks. Again. They are going to finish below .500 this season. Again. Just as they have in each season starting in 1993. They are almost certainly the most poorly run franchise in baseball, if not all of sports. They have some good young pitchers and a few solid young position players. There is no bright side, really, and if Pythagoras had his way their record would be even worse than it already is.

Starting Rotation

Player	W	L	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
* Ian Snell	7	7	3.31	127.2	8.25	7.26	2.54	0.99	29.1
* Tom Gorzelanny	9	5	3.20	132.0	8.52	5.86	2.59	0.75	35.6
* Paul Maholm	6	12	4.57	126.0	9.57	5.36	2.57	1.14	9.1
Shane Youman	2	2	3.24	25.0	9.36	3.24	2.52	0.36	5.9
John Van Benschoten	0	4	8.17	25.1	9.95	5.68	6.04	0.36	(-8.3)

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

The Bucs' starting rotation has been its only real strength this season, and Snell and Gorzelanny have both been splendiferous this season. The strikeout rate on Gorz is unspectacular, but neither issues many walks or an egregious number of homeruns, and both have been innings eaters.

Maholm has been mediocre at best, but he's a crafty lefty so you can count on the Mets struggling against him. Moises Alou should be back in action this series so his right-handed bat should help some.

WPA Top Two
Tom Gorzelanny, 2.09 WPA
Ian Snell, 1.70 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Zach Duke, -1.41 WPA
Tony Armas Jr., -1.32 WPA

Starting Lineup

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP	NL Rank
Ronny Paulino	C	281	.240	.285	.359	1	2	(-1.8)	20/32
Adam LaRoche*	1B	387	.246	.326	.439	0	1	5.1	14/27
Freddy Sanchez	2B	386	.295	.326	.409	0	0	9.4	11/25
Jack Wilson	SS	362	.252	.305	.347	0	3	(-3.0)	21/26
Matt Kata#	3B	18	.333	.333	.500	0	0	1.2	18/30
Jason Bay	LF	409	.247	.323	.412	2	1	3.4	19/31
Nate McLouth*	CF	154	.225	.296	.370	6	0	0.4	19/31
Xavier Nady	RF	338	.280	.334	.479	2	1	13.9	6/28

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

Wow. Just putrid. Former Met Xavier Nady is the only position player with a VORP above ten, though Matt Kata has just 18 plate appearances so he is forgiven. Not a single regular with an on-base percentage above .335 and only one guy -- Nady -- slugging above .440. It's no surprise that the Pirates are next to last in the league in scoring, dead last in OBP and 14th in slugging. But don't fret, Pirates fans. They *are* third in HBP. Woot!

WPA Top Two
Xavier Nady, 1.37 WPA
Nate McLouth, 0.27 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Ronny Paulino, -2.03 WPA
Freddy Sanchez, -1.97 WPA

Bullpen

Player	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
Salomon Torres	5.12	31.2	9.09	7.96	3.41	1.14	0.9
Matt Capps	2.24	52.1	7.39	6.19	1.89	0.34	17.8
Damaso Marte	1.53	29.1	5.52	10.43	3.68	0.00	11.4
John Grabow	5.47	26.1	11.62	7.86	4.44	1.03	(-0.5)
Tony Armas Jr.	7.57	44.0	12.07	6.55	4.30	1.84	(-12.1)
Shawn Chacon	3.48	72.1	8.46	7.47	4.35	0.62	17.4
Masumi Kuwata	6.60	15.0	7.20	4.80	4.80	1.80	(-2.8)

The bullpen has been a mixed bag. Matt Capps and Damaso Marte have both been very good, and Shawn Chacon has a 2.72 ERA as a reliever. Everyone else out there has been throwing batting practice.

WPA Top Two
Matt Capps, 2.17 WPA
Shawn Chacon, 1.53 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Salomon Torres, -1.03 WPA
Josh Sharpless, -0.66 WPA

Bench

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP
Josh Phelps	Bench1	19	.267	.421	.267	0	0	0.3
Jose Castillo	Bench2	129	.238	.271	.328	0	0	(-4.2)
Cesar Izturis#	Bench3	3	.333	.333	.333	0	0	0.0
Rajai Davis	Bench4	54	.267	.358	.333	5	2	1.1
Ryan Doumit#	Bench5	213	.293	.361	.492	1	1	14.3

Ryan Doumit actually plays part time, which is a travesty because he is probably their best hitter. There is no reason that Nate McLouth and his .296 on-base percentage should be glomming up plate appearances in the outfield when you've got Doumit on the bench.

Manager

Strategy	# Times	NL Rank
Pinch Hit	128	16th
Stolen Base Attempts	53	14th
Sacrifice Bunts	38	8th

Jim Tracy didn't really know what he was doing in Los Angeles when he had a good team, and he's even farther out to sea in Pittsburgh with this group.

Key Injuries

Jose Bautista

Chris Duffy

Zach Duke

Payroll

Team Payroll	MLB Rank
$38,604,500	27th

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Comments

Jason Bay

Wow, I'm shocked to see him having such a lousy year. He's been nothing but fantastic his first 3 seasons in the majors.

Adam LaRoche has been a big disappointment too. It's pretty bad when Xavier Nady is putting up typical Xavier Nady numbers, and he's your best hitter.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 24, 2007 12:24 PM EDT reply actions

The Bucs aren't that bad

They just need their pitchers to grow up, and most importantly, they need Zach Duke's elbow to get better. If he falls like Sean Burnett did, they won't win for another 10 years.

And from the mouth of my friend, a Pirates fan, they need to stop drafting 22 year old College kids in the top ten of the draft. (Paul Maholm, John van Benschoten, Bryan Bullington, Brad Lincoln, and Daniel Moskos - wow.) Sadly, elbow troubles hurt a lot of their pitchers; this is from an article I just read:

"In the past decade, six of the seven pitchers they have drafted in the first round -- Lincoln, Clint Johnston, Bobby Bradley, Sean Burnett, John Van Benschoten and Bryan Bullington -- have needed major arm surgeries. The only exception is Paul Maholm, class of 2003."

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Jul 24, 2007 12:44 PM EDT reply actions

organization-wide incompetence

Maybe they have no idea how to scout and spot pitchers who won't hurt their arms.

Maybe their coaching staff has no idea how to channel the talent in those pitchers who actually have it (witness the free-falls that Oliver Perez and Zach Duke went into shortly after arriving in Pittsburgh).

Maybe (maybe? of course!) ownership is too cheap to draft top college prospects who won't come cheap.

Let's face it, the Pirates are a disaster. They're not one quick fix away from contention, even in the weak NL Central. With Tampa Bay loaded in minor league talent, and Kansas City showing signs of life, I think it's safe to say that Pittsburgh is the worst franchise in baseball. Literally everything that is needed to run a franchise (trades, free-agent signings, Latin American scouting, minor-league development, the amateur draft) is done terribly by the Pirates. They need to blow the team up and start over again.

In the meantime, if I were a shrewd GM, I'd try to get Zach Duke from them in a trade for pennies on the dollar. It worked well for the Mets with Oliver Perez.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 24, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

Need it be reminded, one of those "unfortunate" injury victims, Brian Bullington, was drafted #1 overall in 2002. #2 overall was B.J. Upton. Also available later in the first round: Prince Fielder, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, Jeff Francis, Nick Swisher.

And another, John VanBenshotten, was a power hitting first baseman in college who only the Pirates saw as a pitcher. Fine, except that they drafted him, now a completely untested starting pitcher, No. 8 overall in one of the most stacked drafts in history, 2001. Drafted after that guy: Casey Kotchman, Jeremy Bonderman, Bobby Crosby, David Wright, J.J. Hardy, Dan Haren, Ryan Howard.

by jalsonmi on Jul 24, 2007 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Pirates' Drafts

Maybe they have no idea how to scout and spot pitchers who won't hurt their arms.
Maybe their coaching staff has no idea how to channel the talent in those pitchers who actually have it (witness the free-falls that Oliver Perez and Zach Duke went into shortly after arriving in Pittsburgh).
Maybe (maybe? of course!) ownership is too cheap to draft top college prospects who won't come cheap.

While the Pittsburgh coaching staff certainly didn't help Oliver Perez, I don't blame them for destroying Zach Duke, who, as a finesse lefty, didn't have a lot of room for error to begin with. As of right now he's just another guy who throws 88-92 with a good curveball and no changeup.

And the coaching staff has been pretty successful with Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, and, to a lesser extent, Paul Maholm.

The real problem is a combination of #1 and #3. They can't afford the best arms in the draft, so they often have to overdraft low-ceilinged college pitchers. It's led to a lot of draft picks that seemed wrong from Day 1 (Bullington over Upton being the most obvious). The injuries are probably partially bad scouting, but mostly bad luck.

And strange as it is, I think the Pirates repeatedly having high draft picks has hurt them. The higher the pick, the more you're tempted to go with safe picks rather than trust your scouting department. With lower picks, the Pirates might actually make smarter decisions or take more risks.

by Alex Nelson on Jul 24, 2007 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions