Up Next: Mets vs Washington Nationals

Record

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Nationals should consider themselves extremely fortunate that they aren't doing worse than they are. Most experts agreed that the Nats would lose in excess of 100 games this season, and that they could even rival the hallowed 120 loss mark. As things stand now, they are actually on pace for 90-95 losses, which is a miracle of "Red Sea parting" proportions. They have outperformed their expected Won/Loss record (based on run differential) by a few games.

Starting Rotation

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

You'll have to scroll down to the "Key Inuries" section to really get the whole picture of the Nats' starting rotation. They have been destroyed by ineffectiveness and an inability to stay healthy. Their rotation currently features two former Mets: Billy Traber (sent to Cleveland in the Roberto Alomar deal) and Mike Bacsik (thought to have been lost in the ether years ago). Tim Redding has a respectable ERA in just 24.2 innings of work, but that seems unsustainable considering his perpherals to this point (1.92 K/9?). Traber has probably been the best of the bunch, and his strikeout-to-walk and homerun rates are not terrible.

WPA Top Two
Shawn Hill, 0.92 WPA
Jason Bergmann, 0.42 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Levale Speigner, -1.24 WPA
Jason Simontacchi, -1.00 WPA

Starting Lineup

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

You've got Dmitri Young, who is having a career year and was just signed to a two year extension to carry his considerable weight through his age 35 season. Ronnie Belliard has outperformed expectations, though his defense is deplorable and he is right around his 75% PECOTA projection (Young is demolishing his 90% PECOTA projection). Ryan Zimmerman is improving after a horrible start. Three guys -- Felipe Lopez, Nook Logan and Brian Schneider -- have all been worse than replacement level this year.

WPA Top Two
Dmitri Young, 0.78 WPA
Jesus Flores, 0.53 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Brian Schneider, -2.15 WPA
Robert Fick, -1.70 WPA

Bullpen

The Nats' bullpen has been their strength. Chad Cordero continues to be solid despite mediocre strikeout and walk rates. Jon Rauch has probably been their best reliever this year, and his 3.76 ERA belies his performance thus far.

WPA Top Two
Jesus Colome, 1.79 WPA
Saul Rivera, 1.51 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Ryan Wagner, -0.51 WPA
Chris Booker, -0.34 WPA

Bench

Basically dreck here, though Jesus Flores has been a nice surprise. He doesn't play much, but he's going to be on the roster all season and the Nats would be able to send him down to the minors next year if they were so inclined.

Manager

The Nats are helmed by former Met third base coach Manny Acta, a pretty smart dude in my estimation. Really seems to get the analytical side of the game. Not surprisingly, the Nats are near the bottom of the league in attempted stolen bases, and are in the bottom half in sacrifice bunts.

Key Injuries

Payroll