Up Next: Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers

After stumbling through a 4-3 homestand against the Pirates and the Nationals, the Mets hit the road for parts unknown, aka the great midwest, to take on the central division leading Milwaukee Brewers.

Record

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Brewers' record is right about where their run differential says it should be. Actually, they have outperformed it by one win, but that's hardly significant.

Starting Rotation

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

Not pictured: Ben Sheets, who is on the disabled list again. The Mets are somewhat fortunate in that they are drawing arguably the Brewers' three worst starting pitchers this series. Chris Capuano isn't having a great year but he has historically been very good. Instead of facing him or rookie hotshot Yovani Gallardo, the Mets get their old arch-enemy Jeff Suppan, Claudio Vargas and his 1.49 WHIP, and everyman Dave Bush.

WPA Top Two
Ben Sheets, 1.81 WPA
Yovani Gallardo, 1.18 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Jeff Suppan, -0.80 WPA
David Bush, -0.62 WPA

Starting Lineup

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

The Brewers are in good shape for the future, with everyone but Geoff Jenkins and Johnny Estrada on the good side of 30, many significantly so. Fielder and Braun look like studs, with Weeks and Hardy yet to completely fill in (Hardy had a great start but has fizzled since late May). Six of the eight regulars here are in the top six among National Leaguers at their respective positions, with Jenkins and Weeks not faring quite so well.

WPA Top Two
Prince Fielder, 3.37 WPA
Ryan Braun, 1.41 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Tony Graffanino, -1.30 WPA
Rickie Weeks, -1.06 WPA

Bullpen

Very tough bullpen here; not really a true stinker among them, and plenty of late inning weapons. Francisco Cordero has turned things around and has been mostly dominant this year; note the 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Derrick Turnbow is striking out a lot of batters, but he seems to be walking the rest of them. Recently-acquired Scott Linebrink should help, though he's not the pitcher he was the last couple of seasons.

WPA Top Two
Matt Wise, 1.28 WPA
Carlos Villanueva, 1.22 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Greg Aquino, -0.86 WPA
Grant Balfour, -0.76 WPA

Bench

It's a typical bench. Expect Kevin Mench to play in the first two games against Glavine and Perez.

Manager

Ned Yost doesn't care much for pinch hitting or sacrificing. Their pitchers are right around the middle of the pack offensively, batting .148/.169/.189 (the Mets are first in the NL at .178/.227/.216).

Key Injuries

Payroll