Open Thread - Game 122: Mets vs. Nationals (08/18/2007) on CW11

by Eric Simon on Aug 18, 2007 12:08 PM EDT

Tale of the tape:

	Perez	Lannan
ERA	3.46	3.00
FIP	4.30	4.95
K/9	8.86	1.88
BB/9	3.53	4.13
K/BB	2.51	0.45
HR/9	1.25	0.38
WHIP	1.25	1.42
GB/FB	0.62	1.45
BABIP	.280	.260
eBABIP	.297	.254

Que se dillio:

I'll be out for most of the day so the game thread is up a little earlier than usual. Ollie has allowed eleven runs in eleven innings covering his last two starts but his BABIP against in that span is something like .414 using a quick-and-dirty calculation. He has killed himself with the longball mostly, allowing three homeruns in those eleven innings. Otherwise his peripherals have been very strong: 16 strikeouts to just three walks.

The other side of the tracks:

Check out Federal Baseball for discussion of this game from the point-of-view of the opponent.

Follow the game online:

- FanGraphs.com
- ESPN.com
- Yahoo!
- CBS SportsLine
- MLB.com

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fun with math

The Mets are 68-53, for a .562 winning percentage. There are 41 games remaining in the season.

To win 95 games (two fewer than they won last season), they will need to win two thirds of their remaining games, going 27-14. A .667 winning percentage from here out would leave them at 95-67.

To win 91 games, they will need to go 23-18 down the stretch. Perhaps that is a more realistic outcome, but will it be enough to win the division?

If the Mets manage to go on a ten-game winning streak at some point, they still would win 95 games by going just 17-14 the rest of the way.

Remaining on the schedule:

Washington (eight games)
Philadelphia (seven games)
Florida (seven games)
Atlanta (six games)
San Diego (three games)
Los Angeles (three games)
Cincinnati (three games)
Houston (three games)
St. Louis (one game--make-up)

Anyone care to share his expectations?

We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!

by kingcritical on Aug 18, 2007 1:46 PM EDT reply actions

93-69

I think injuries have been the biggest problem for this team all year, but Alou is back and raking, Beltran is back and hitting better than he has since April. I think they're in good shape, and I also think the Phillies are far more likely to challenge the Mets from here on out (just wait for Utley and Victorino to return) than the Braves. It may come down to the final weekend, but I also expect the loser of the NL East title race to win the wild card.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Aug 18, 2007 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you hit it exactly

they will plod along the rest of the way and win the division by 4-5 games. The team I fear mot in the playoffs are the Padres because they have 2 excellent starters and a good bullpen. But they might not even make the playoffs. A rematch with Cards somewhere along the way is possible.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Aug 18, 2007 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions

WC

I'm wary of the Pads, too. Since the wild card is going to come out of the East or West, there's a good chance we play them in the first round. Facing Peavy twice with Young in the middle is not cool. Although Webb is pretty good too. I'm almost hoping the Phillies make the WC and pound out the West winner in the 1st round.

If the Cards make the playoffs, I won't be able to watch at home because Buck/McCarver would make me break my tv and I can't afford a new one.

On another note, hahahahaha:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070818/ap_on_re_us/marriage_age_arkansas

by citimetro on Aug 18, 2007 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions

blernnnnnn!

to commemorate the 3/4 mark of the season:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=fgLMyEJZyL4

by citimetro on Aug 18, 2007 6:42 PM EDT reply actions

Tim McCarver is a moron

he says Charlie Manual is manager of year because of all Phils injuries. Yes they've had more than their share, but the Mets have had lots too. Manual makes ridiculous moves during games. I guess McCarver has loyalty to his old team. He's blaming media for getting on Manual. My vote would be for Bob Melvin. Arizona may with the division with Eric Byrnes as best offensive player. That's good managing.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Aug 18, 2007 6:53 PM EDT reply actions

Wow

The 1-2 punch must have eaten their Wheaties this morning. They are producing...

by citimetro on Aug 18, 2007 8:30 PM EDT reply actions

Lannan

This guy is so slow in between pitches. he's killin' me. I know he's young but he seems to have a bit of an attitude.

I bleed blue and orange

by stjohnthebassist on Aug 18, 2007 8:37 PM EDT reply actions

by TheFlushingKings on Aug 18, 2007 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Millz continues to rake

Let's go, Wags!

Where have you gone, Endy Chavez?

by TheFlushingKings on Aug 18, 2007 10:29 PM EDT reply actions

Wags

What's with the walks on the first batter the last few times?

I bleed blue and orange

by stjohnthebassist on Aug 18, 2007 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Wags vs Young

I guess he just wanted to get to Young. He owns him

I bleed blue and orange

by stjohnthebassist on Aug 18, 2007 10:36 PM EDT reply actions

hahaha

Hero of the day: Micah Owings- 7 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 7 K....4/5, 2 HR, 2B, 6 RBI (vs. Braves)

by Mikeybags84 on Aug 18, 2007 10:38 PM EDT reply actions

Mets Win!!!

Phils lose...Braves lose...Good news!

I bleed blue and orange

by stjohnthebassist on Aug 18, 2007 10:39 PM EDT reply actions

nice win and

they stretch their lead, but please no more Mota. Easley looks like he may be done for the year. He's a valuable bench player and we're now heavy left-handed on the bence.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Aug 18, 2007 10:55 PM EDT reply actions