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Around SBN: Knicks 90, Raptors 87: "Shump and Lin wouldn't let us lose."

Sloppy Seconds

Seeing their roster ravaged by injuries, Mets Brass addressed their biggest weakness on Monday by trading for Luis Castillo. You can't fault their logic: They were down to their last three second basemen, and only two of them were out-slugging Carlos Delgado.

Words can't express how wrongheaded this trade is. But I can. The Mets brought in a player they don't need who doesn't want to be here, playing him over a younger guy who would walk through fire (or at least foul off the tough pitches) for a win. Ruben Gotay will ride the pine even after his recent work against the Nats, when he took the Star Trek Voyager approach and reached base 7 of 9 tries.

I won't bore you with the numbers. I won't point out that Castillo has a grand total of 14 extra-base hits in grass parks over the last two years combined. I won't say that Castillo's line-drive rate of 14.4% this year suggests he should be hitting .250 instead of .300, nor will I say that Gotay's line-drive rate of 25.5% suggests his .350 average is legit. I won't diminish a Castillo strength - he sees 4 pitches per plate appearance - by pointing out that Gotay is even stronger in this area, leading the team at 4.20 P/PA. I won't do any of that.

Even if Castillo were having the better year with the stick, I'd still hate the deal. Fans are on shaky ground when they try to analyze team chemistry from afar. But it's not a stretch to suggest that a guy who smiles, like Lastings Milledge, is having more fun than a guy who glowers, like Guillermo Mota. He's more fun to watch, anyway. Is Castillo fun? He greeted the news that he was headed to a first-place team by saying "I'm not feeling too good," earning the Tommy Herr Award for team spirit. After fouling off a pitch in Tuesday night's game, he trudged back to the batter's box with a downcast head, like he was Charlie Brown after balking in the losing run. When he left the bases loaded in the seventh, he made a bee line for the clubhouse, bypassing the dugout for some "me time." Oh, this is fun.

"But they got him cheap!" They didn't give up much, it seems. But even if someone's willing to sell you a $30,000 car for $20,000, there's no law that says you have to buy it - especially if you already have a better car and what you really need is a down payment on a house with some bullpen help.

"But he's a glove wizard!" Castillo's got soft hands and good range, sure. But on this team, who cares? The middle infielders get, what, three grounders a game? If they want to improve the defense they should give Shawn Green some bionic legs. Oh I remember now - Gotay threw away a DP in Los Angeles, and it cost them the game. But the Dodgers scored 8 runs that day, and Gotay wasn't on the hill, I don't think. Unless Ruben spent the afternoon corking Matt Kemp's bat, I think the loss goes to Jorge Sosa.

Anyway, Gotay's D would be fine if Willie Randolph would just sit him down and say, "Look kid, forget the tabloids and don't listen to mlbtraderumors.com - you're my second baseman, period." Willie did the exact opposite, pissing on every one of Gotay's 2-for-4 games by saying that he was filling in okay but he wasn't "the guy." And then ESPN runs a headline saying "Mets fill second base void with Twins' Castillo." Now that's just hurtful, and I hate to see my guys get hurt.

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i dunno dude
that line drive % of gotay's is from a small smapel size so shouldnt we expect that to come down?  and .415 BABIP?

i liked the gotay and easley platoon idea and thot the had bigger needs but this wasnt that bad.  what about the increased bench depth and less at bats for newhan?  that has to be worth something?  

by kendynamo on Aug 2, 2007 2:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Gotay
I would expect the line drive rate to come down, but his LD% does support his lofty BABIP. I would be more concerned if his LD% were lower and his BABIP still at .415.

I don't hate this deal as much as Simons. I don't love it, because I don't think it adds a whole lot of value to the team, but it's hard to hate it considering the Mets gave up little of consequence.

by Eric Simon on Aug 2, 2007 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

LD%
By comparison, Gotay's LD% in AAA was 10.8%. Granted he was slumping in AAA, but my guess is he'll split the difference between his surging MLB numbers and his slumping AAA numbers and fall into the 18% range or so. His career number is 19.2%.

by Alex Nelson on Aug 2, 2007 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Um
His BABIP is unsustainable at .415.  Even with that LD%.

But it doesn't matter anyway, because HIS LD% is ALSO unsustainable.  25.5% would put him 2nd in the league - and he's simply not that much of a line drive hitter.  That number will go down, as will his  BABIP, and his numbers will sink. Unless he COMPLETELY revamped his hitting style in the minors, all his other MLB data has a LD% significantly lower.  He's also stopped hitting FB's, yet still has a little power, because a ridiculously fluky 15% of his flyballs go for homers.  11% of his ground balls go for infield hits.  These numbers have FLUKE written all over them.

He's been surprisingly successful, yes, but not at all in a way that suggests it is something he can keep up, this season or ever.  Not to mention he still doesn't walk and we're talking about a 133 PA sample size.

When asked why I was a Mets fan, I responded, "pain is my lifeblood."

by wrightHOF on Aug 2, 2007 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Um
Did anyone say his BABIP *was* sustainable?

by Eric Simon on Aug 2, 2007 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here's the thing about Gotay...
You really can't go strictly by his minor league stats because it includes him hitting RH and he really is much better from the left side.

by SQUAD on Aug 2, 2007 2:50 PM EDT reply actions  

No compensation...
if Omar extends/resigns him.

by SQUAD on Aug 2, 2007 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well yeah
I should clarify - I like the trade as long as Castillo isn't resigned.  But I have faith that Minaya will make the right call and let him go.

by ams258 on Aug 2, 2007 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hate the deal too
for the same reasons.  If the Mets wanted a no-hit, good-glove 2B, why didn't they call up Anderson Hernandez?  Because what they really wanted was a True Proven Veteran Winner<sup>TM</sup&gt.

http://blastingsthrilledge.blogspot.com/2007/07/evaluating-castillo-trade.html

by JohnP on Aug 2, 2007 6:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Castillo
In Castillo's defense, he is hardly "no hit, all glove". He is a career .294 hitter with a .368 on-base percentage, which are vastly superior to anything Anderson Hernandez would hope to produce. Castillo has plenty of flaws, but he is a *much* better hitter than AHern.

by Eric Simon on Aug 2, 2007 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gotay is not Ryne Sandberg
I like the kid and he did a good job while but he played, but Gotay's lifetime numbers just dont make the case that his .340 average will hold up a full season. Castillo has experience, he's a better fielder than Gotay and he's perfect for the two hole because he's patient at the plate and a great bunter.
Cleon

by Cleon on Aug 2, 2007 8:16 PM EDT reply actions  

"a great bunter"
Willie calls the bunt way the fuck too often.  Bunting is a secondary skill.  When Reyes doubles leading off an inning, you don't call for a bunt with the next hitter unless you don't have any confidence in that next hitter's ability to get a hit and score the run WITHOUT conceding an out.

I guess that's more a comment about Willie's style than Castillo, though.

by Josh @ Amazin' Avenue on Aug 3, 2007 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

I know it's wrong
To root against your guys. But I have to admit I'm hoping to see Castillo... not fall on his face, but maybe put in a mediocre two months and make it easy for Omar to let him leave in favor of a draft pick. If that happens the deal could look okay down the road.

Has there ever been another second baseman to incite a civil war like this? Jeff Kent attacking his teammates doesn't count.

by Simons on Aug 3, 2007 3:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Kaz Matsui?
Or was he universally hated?

Roberto Alomar?  Or was it ditto for him?

Carlos Baerga?

Luis Lopez?

by SQUAD on Aug 4, 2007 10:31 AM EDT reply actions  

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