Up Next: Mets vs Chicago Cubs

by Eric Simon on Aug 3, 2007 12:12 AM EDT

After taking two (and almost three) from the Beermakers, the Mets roll into Chicago to take on the central division leading Cubs.

Record

NL CENTRAL	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	Streak	Last 10
Chicago Cubs	57	50	.533	-	29-26	28-24	501	442	Lost 1	6-4
Milwaukee	58	51	.532	-	37-19	21-32	524	497	Lost 2	3-7
St. Louis	50	55	.476	6	25-25	25-30	463	553	Lost 2	5-5
Houston	46	61	.430	11	28-25	18-36	473	552	Lost 3	5-5
Pittsburgh	44	62	.415	12.5	25-30	19-32	440	525	Won 2	3-7
Cincinnati	45	64	.413	13	24-29	21-35	497	567	Lost 5	4-6

W	L	RS	RA	W1	L1	W2	L2	W3	L3
57.	49.	495	432	59.6	46.4	58.9	47.1	56.8	49.2

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Cubbies are right where they should be, record-wise. Their actual won-loss ledger is supported by their run differential.

Starting Rotation

Player	W	L	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
*Carlos Zambrano	14	7	3.47	150.1	7.18	7.66	3.89	1.02	34.8
*Ted Lilly	11	5	3.60	137.2	7.78	7.26	2.29	1.05	31.0
Rich Hill	6	6	3.67	127.2	7.83	8.32	3.10	1.48	26.1
Sean Marshall	5	4	3.10	69.2	8.40	6.20	2.84	0.78	18.8
*Jason Marquis	8	6	4.22	128.0	8.23	5.06	3.66	1.20	12.7

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

Bad draw for the Mets as they are saddled with two of the Cubs' three best starters, including impending free agent Carlos Zambrano. The Cubs were ridiculed for spending money so freely last offseason, but one place it has worked out so far is with Ted Lilly. His walk rate and strikeout-to-walk rate are both career best right now. Jason Marquis got off to a terrible start but has actually been pretty decent this season.

WPA Top Two
Carlos Zambrano, 2.00 WPA
Ted Lilly, 1.28 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Wade Miller, -0.86 WPA
Jason Marquis, 0.02 WPA

Starting Lineup

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP	NL Rank
Jason Kendall	C	41	.229	.325	.286	0	0	(-0.6)	26/31
Derrek Lee	1B	418	.326	.414	.507	4	4	33.6	4/28
Mike Fontenot*	2B	168	.305	.347	.455	5	2	8.1	12/30
Ryan Theriot	SS	365	.283	.353	.370	19	4	11.1	9/27
Aramis Ramirez	3B	358	.318	.358	.547	0	0	28.2	5/29
Alfonso Soriano	LF	458	.298	.338	.517	18	4	27.9	4/31
Jacque Jones*	CF	300	.242	.309	.338	2	2	(-6.6)	22/31
Cliff Floyd*	RF	217	.294	.359	.396	0	0	5.1	16/28

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

Mixed bag here, as usual. Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano are all in the top five among National Leaguers at their respective positions. Something for the Mets to note about Soriano and Ramirez in particular: They never walk. In 458 plate appearances Soriano has drawn 20 unintentional walks. In 358 plate appearances Ramirez has drawn 17 unintentional walks. Former Met Cliff Floyd has done well in the on-base department, but his power seems to have all but disappeared. Jacque Jones has been a full two-thirds of a win worse than a replacement level outfielder this season, and Jason Kendall is right at replacement level.

WPA Top Two
Aramis Ramirez, 3.29 WPA
Derrek Lee, 2.03 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Jacque Jones, -1.80 WPA
Ronny Cedeno, -0.97 WPA

Bullpen

Player	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
Ryan Dempster	2.95	39.2	6.13	8.39	4.31	0.23	11.3
Bob Howry	4.10	52.2	9.57	7.52	2.05	0.85	8.7
Scott Eyre	5.71	34.2	11.68	8.05	6.75	0.78	0.3
Carlos Marmol	1.59	39.2	5.67	12.03	3.86	0.45	18.2
Rocky Cherry	3.55	12.2	7.82	7.82	3.55	0.71	2.1
Michael Wuertz	3.51	48.2	8.14	9.06	4.07	0.92	11.0
Will Ohman	3.82	30.2	8.80	8.51	3.52	0.88	6.6

Lots of strikeout pitchers in the Cubbie bullpen, but plenty of walks, too. They have actually put together a pretty solid relief corps here, though Dempster is always a few pitches away from a meltdown at any given moment.

WPA Top Two
Ryan Dempster, 1.58 WPA
Carlos Marmol, 1.49 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Scott Eyre, -1.24 WPA
Will Ohman, -0.75 WPA

Bench

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP
Koyie Hill#	Bench1	91	.162	.233	.287	0	0	(-5.3)
Mark DeRosa	Bench2	360	.288	.369	.433	0	2	13.6
Ronny Cedeno	Bench3	47	.143	.178	.310	1	1	(-4.3)
Angel Pagan#	Bench4	151	.275	.320	.457	4	1	5.2
Matt Murton	Bench5	143	.252	.336	.339	1	0	(-1.0)

Mark DeRosa has actually been solid, and does start quite a bit all over the field. Former Met farmhand Angel Pagan has shown decent pop off the bench. The rest of these guys have been dreck.

Manager

Strategy	# Times	NL Rank
Pinch Hit	158	11/16
Stolen Base Attempts	89	7/16
Sacrifice Bunts	36	13/16

Lou Piniella is in the middle of the pack with respect to the basic managerial tendencies.

Key Injuries

Kerry Wood

Henry Blanco

Daryle Ward

Wade Miller

Angel Guzman

Payroll

Team Payroll	MLB Rank
$99,936,999	8/30

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Comments

On Marquis

"Jason Marquis got off to a terrible start but has actually been pretty decent this season."

Actually, it's quite the opposite. He got off to a great start, and has been the real Jason Marquis since. His stats-

April: 3-1, 2.35 ERA, 30 2/3 IP, 23 H, 1 HR, 13 BB, 14 K
May: 2-1, 3.38 ERA, 40 IP, 32 H, 4 HR, 10 BB, 23 K
June: 0-2, 5.09 ERA, 23 IP, 25 H, 4 HR, 14 BB, 17 K
July: 3-2, 6.29 ERA, 34 1/3 IP, 37 H, 8 HR, 15 BB, 18 K

Hopefully those trends continue and Tommy gets plenty of support for #300.

by Mikeybags84 on Aug 3, 2007 4:29 AM EDT reply actions