Up Next: Mets vs San Diego Padres

by Eric Simon on Aug 21, 2007 11:20 AM EDT in Up Next Comment 8 comments

It was sweep city in D.C. but the Mets return home to find the league's most suffocating pitching staff waiting for them.

Record

NL WEST	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	Streak	Last 10
Arizona	71	55	.563	-	37-24	34-31	539	568	Lost 2	6-4
San Diego	66	57	.537	3.5	35-29	31-28	534	475	Won 1	5-5
LA Dodgers	64	60	.516	6	34-32	30-28	547	538	Won 1	5-5
Colorado	63	61	.508	7	35-24	28-37	629	592	Lost 2	4-6

W	L	RS	RA	W1	L1	W2	L2	W3	L3
66.	57.	534	475	68.0	55.0	63.7	59.3	63.2	59.8

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Padres have outperformed their run differential by a few wins, not atypical for a team with such a talented bullpen.

Starting Rotation

Player	W	L	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
*Jake Peavy	13	5	2.19	164.2	7.00	9.56	2.51	0.33	60.4
*Chris Young	9	4	1.93	130.2	5.79	8.61	3.17	0.28	49.5
Greg Maddux	9	9	3.90	154.2	9.66	4.83	1.22	0.64	30.0
*Justin Germano	6	7	4.18	103.1	8.10	5.14	2.53	0.96	16.2
Clay Hensley	2	3	6.70	44.1	10.96	4.87	5.48	0.81	(-7.3)

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

Those two guys at the top will make for a very difficult series for the Mets. Jake Peavy is the Cy Young frontrunner at this point, though Chris Young would be right there with him if he hadn't missed some time due to injury. The Padres took two of three from the Mets when these two teams met in San Diego back in July, and they certainy have their starting rotation lined up to do the same this week at Shea.

WPA Top Two
Jake Peavy, 4.06 WPA
Chris Young, 3.74 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
David Wells, -1.27 WPA
Clay Hensley, -0.91 WPA

Starting Lineup

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP	NL Rank
Josh Bard	C	310	.258	.345	.369	0	1	9.4	6/31
Adrian Gonzalez	1B	537	.270	.341	.479	0	0	24.0	8/27
Geoff Blum	2B	230	.265	.336	.358	0	0	3.0	16/28
Khalil Greene	SS	483	.237	.273	.444	3	0	8.5	15/29
Kevin Kouzmanoff	3B	370	.236	.293	.412	1	0	0.9	18/29
Terrmel Sledge	LF	196	.208	.308	.363	1	1	(-3.5)	20/32
Mike Cameron	CF	513	.249	.324	.432	14	5	15.3	5/31
Brian Giles	RF	371	.306	.391	.441	4	3	19.2	5/31

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

This lineup is missing Milton Bradley who is nursing a hamstring injury and is likely to miss the whole series. He has hit .355/.456/.618 since joining the Padres, and his understudy Terrmel Sledge has been worse than replacement level in 196 plate appearances this season. The left side of San Diego's infield has combined to post an on-base percentage to the south of .300, and Marcus Giles played so badly early on that he has basically been replaced by Geoff Blum at second base. Adrian Gonzalez is having a solid year at first, and Brian Giles has seen a surge in the power department since the All-Star break and currently looks like the Giles of old.

WPA Top Two
Adrian Gonzalez, 2.43 WPA
Milton Bradley, 1.21 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Khalil Greene, -1.41 WPA
Michael Barrett, -1.34 WPA

Bullpen

Player	ERA	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	VORP
Trevor Hoffman	2.09	43.0	5.65	6.28	2.30	0.42	15.0
Heath Bell	2.43	70.1	6.53	9.21	2.69	0.38	25.5
Cla Meredith	3.34	59.1	11.38	6.52	1.97	0.61	8.1
Kevin Cameron	1.33	47.1	7.23	7.99	5.13	0.00	22.1
Justin Hampson	3.62	37.1	9.40	4.82	3.38	0.00	7.5
Doug Brocail	3.90	55.1	7.97	4.72	2.93	0.81	5.7
Wilfredo Ledezma	5.06	5.1	11.81	11.81	6.75	1.69	(-0.6)

Yikes. Heath Bell has been awesome, but he has already logged more than 70 innings with almost forty games yet to play. Kevin Cameron's ERA is razor-thin but his peripherals paint a different picture. Allowing more than five walks every nine innings is bound to come back to bite him.

WPA Top Two
Heath Bell, 2.46 WPA
Trevor Hoffman, 2.44 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Cla Meredith, -0.74 WPA
Mike Thompson, -0.62 WPA

Bench

Player	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	CS	VORP
Pete Laforest	Bench1	26	.381	.500	.571	0	0	4.5
Marcus Giles	Bench2	440	.223	.293	.307	10	3	(-10.9)
Morgan Ensberg	Bench3	43	.225	.279	.525	0	0	1.4
Milton Bradley	Bench4	90	.355	.456	.618	3	1	13.5
Rob Mackowiak	Bench5	48	.191	.208	.234	1	0	(-4.8)

Bradley probably isn't available although I like the Morgan Ensberg pickupas a no-risk maneuver. Marcus Giles will probably start against Tom Glavine in this series but could ride the pine the other two games.

Manager

Strategy	# Times	NL Rank
Pinch Hit	191	10/16
Stolen Base Attempts	69	13/16
Sacrifice Bunts	50	7/16

The Padres are helmed by Bud Black in his first stint as a big league manager. He had been a pitching coach with the Angels under Mike Scoscia for a number of years.

Key Injuries

Michael Barrett

Scott Hairston

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