Community Projection: Jose Reyes

by Eric Simon on Jan 16, 2008 10:04 AM EST in Community Projections Comment 32 comments

I looked back at Jose Reyes's 2007 season in Novemeber, but now it's time to look forward to 2008. We had a lot of fun predicting Pedro Martinez's future forecase last week, and Reyes is as good a candidate as any to kickstart the batter projections.

Year	PA	BB	K	HR	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2005	733	27	78	7	60	15	.273	.300	.386
2006	703	53	81	19	64	17	.300	.354	.487
2007	765	77	78	12	78	21	.280	.354	.421

Reyes greatly improved his plate discipline in 2007, and his walk rate has climbed steadily the past two seasons. His power fell off considerably last year, and many question whether all of his attempted steals are actually benefiting himself and the team when all is said and done. What do you guys think?

Project Jose Reyes's 2008 performance in the following categories:

Plate appearances
Walks
Strikeouts
Stolen bases
Caught stealing
Homeruns
Batting average
On-base percentage
Slugging percentage

Try to avoid basing your prognostications on any of the projection systems (ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, PECOTA, etc.) that are out there. Stick to what your gut says. Post your projections in the comments in the following comma-delimited format:

PA,BB,K,SB,CS,HR,AVG,OBP,SLG

You can even copy the line above, paste it into your comment, and then simply replace the categories with your projections. For example:

720,75,85,65,18,15,.285,.350,.440

Posting in this manner will make it far easier for me to copy into Excel to tabulate. I'll post other pitchers and hitters in the coming weeks, and will tally our projections at the end. Don't forget any of the categories; I will be forced to discard any incomplete projections.

With all of that in the back of your mind, let 'er rip.

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Reyes

669,72,65,58,12,17,.305,.365,.496

by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 16, 2008 10:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just a side note:

I really lowered the amount of AB's Reyes is going to get this season in the hope that he gets a game off every now and then to rest. I think that'll help him a LOT and I can't see how Willie didn't see that last season.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 16, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cool

Since you lowered his total appearances, his OBA should be higher than you have it.

by vonhayes on Jan 16, 2008 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Umm

I'm assuming that he lowered Reyes's counting stats to reflect the PA projection. AVG, OBP and SLG are all *rate* stats. If his PA were higher and his walks, hits, etc. increased accordingly, his rate stats would be unaffected by the increased playing time.

by Eric Simon on Jan 16, 2008 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Do the calculation there dude

Ummm actually if you do to the calculations, it's way off!

I didn't mean to say that BECAUSE he lowered the plate appearance totals that the rate stats would change. I meant that in this particular case, he should re-check his calculations for OBP. Unless he is considering a lot of sacrifices.

My two thoughts were sort of unrelated. I shouldn't have said my statement as a cause-and-effect.

by vonhayes on Jan 17, 2008 8:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're probably right....

Honestly, I was a bit too lazy to do the math. More guesstimating more than anything else, trying to feel out a general "area" that Jose is going to hit.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 17, 2008 9:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lower the walks

To about 62. That seems about right and I think the OBP works out fine that way.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 17, 2008 9:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh

And then correspondingly, make the OBP .370. Little bit here, little bit there. I think it's pretty realistic.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 17, 2008 9:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also

You can just say that there were a bunch of HBP or sacrifice bunts to swing the OBP one way or another.

by Eric Simon on Jan 17, 2008 9:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Done

You know a lot about baseball, you should start a blog

by vonhayes on Jan 17, 2008 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sorry!

I wasn't trying to nitpick or be a jerk, honest. I thought I was helping.

by vonhayes on Jan 17, 2008 9:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't mind....

I just honestly wasn't certain how exact we wanted to be with the projections. Certainly no huge deal to figure out what the more realistic OBP would be.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 17, 2008 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs