Community Projection Results: Jose Reyes

by Eric Simon on Jan 18, 2008 1:22 AM EST

Earlier in the week I solicited your projections for Jose Reyes. We all know that Reyes had a bit of a down year with the bat, though you wouldn't have predicted that outcome after watching his performance in April. He continues to improve in the walk department, but he didn't hit for a whole lot of power. Here's what you guys predicted.

	PA	BB	K	SB	CS	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
AA	666	79	77	53	19	17	0.300	0.371	0.471
CHONE	693	60	72	67	17	12	0.293	0.355	0.438
Marcel	653	53	74	59	14	12	0.292	0.351	0.442
Bill James	728	59	75	69	20	14	0.289	0.348	0.442
ZiPS	747	74	79	71	20	15	0.285	0.356	0.444

Well, we're nothing if you're not optimistic. The .371 OBP from the AA forecast destroys even the most optimistic of the available forecast systems. Ditto our .471 SLG projection. Interestingly, the projection systems may be well below our largely unscientific estimates with respect to Reyes's rate stats, but they actually had much higher projections for his stolen base numbers. Perhaps we all just feel that Reyes needs to hold back a bit on the basepaths, and I think that may be reflected in the SB/CS numbers we put out there for him.

The good news is that even the most conservative forecast -- Bill James's .289/.348/.442 -- represents an overall improvement over Reyes's actual performance in 2007. Everyone recognizes his potential for greatness, but I think he needs to improve his focus on the field and his maturity in general. That may sound like a silly thing to say, but Reyes really fell apart attitude-wise towards the end of last season, and I like to think that someone with a bit more experience wouldn't have let that happen. These may sound like the ramblings of an old-fashioned baseball coot, but with little else of substance to go on here, I'm left with supposition and hearsay.

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The Marcel Projection for Reyes

Marcel projects 653 plate appearances for Reyes. Last year he had 760. It would be very bad for us if Jose looses that many plate appearances

Nick

by chicagometfan on Jan 18, 2008 10:09 AM EST reply actions

Like I said in my Prediction....

I actually hope his AB's go down. Because that means Willie has realized he needs a break every now and then.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jan 18, 2008 12:54 PM EST up reply actions

yeah

My prediction had a significant decrease in SBs, in the hope that Willie realizes that Reyes needs to be a smarter, less unhinged basestealer in the mold of Beltran or Wright.

Of course, we're talking about Willie Randolph here, so I ain't exactly holding my breath.

Let's Go Meters in New York!!!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jan 18, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions