NL East - Winter Rankings

by Xeifrank on Jan 28, 2008 12:57 AM EST

NL East - Winter Rankings

Rankings were created by plugging 2008 ZIPS Projections into the baseball game simulator that I wrote. The simulator uses advanced sabermetrical algorithms to pit two teams against each other. Each NL East team faced off against each of the other NL East teams in a round robin format. A format in which each teams #1 starter played 1000 home and away games against the other teams #1 starter, the same thing for the #2 vs #2 and so on. All wins were added up and averaged. All stats/projections were adjusted to the park they were played in (3 year park adjusted averages).

Results

NY Mets .5424
ATL Braves .530
PHI Phillies .508
WAS Nationals .471
FLA Marlins .449

You can view the study in more details.

vr, Xei

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Comments

interesting

I guess this is an objective reason to be optimistic about this season. Honestly, the glass-half-empty side of me has been in control, especially with this offseason the Mets have had, and that side of me expects a 3rd-place finish.

Let's Go Meters in New York!!!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jan 28, 2008 11:33 PM EST reply actions

Johan

Well, I see that the Mets numbers may need to be reran in a few days whenever the trade gets finalized and Johan's NL ZIPS comes out.
vr, Xei

Baseball, it is what it is.

by Xeifrank on Jan 29, 2008 5:39 PM EST reply actions

vers 2.0

Ok, I reran the numbers with Johan in the #1 slot and Pedro in the #2 slot etc...

NYM .5561
ATL .5299
PHI .5078
WAS .4706
FLA .4494

an additional 2.2194 wins from previous projection (per 162 games played vs only NL East teams).

vr, Xei

Baseball, it is what it is.

by Xeifrank on Jan 31, 2008 2:25 PM EST reply actions

Obviously...

...the season should just be canceled and the NL East crown given directly to the Mets, just like last year. Oh, wait, something went wrong last year, didn't it? I guess you may need to rerun the numbers again with the "choke" factor included.

by Red Dawn on Feb 4, 2008 11:51 AM EST reply actions

uh

I think the guy who ran this simulation is a Dodgers fan, but thanks for your input.

Oh, and how about those Giants? It's really a shame the Eagles couldn't cash it in on their final drive 3 years ago, ain't it?

Flushing, Queens: soon to be known as Johan's-burg!!!

by Greenpoint Ian on Feb 5, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions

Something went wrong last year?

Ooooohhh, you mean like how something goes wrong every OTHER year for the Phillies? It's amazing how the fact that the Phillies have made choking an artform over this past decade keeps getting forgotten.... Neither of our teams can be proud of themselves concerning the "choke" label.

by Lunkwill Fook on Feb 6, 2008 8:54 AM EST up reply actions