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Wednesday Morning Mets Newsstand

Bullet list, 'Best Pitcher in Baseball' edition.

  • At his blog for ESPN Insider (free preview entry), Keith Law thinks the Mets were big winners in this deal, though he's quick to point out his warning signs:
    Santana is not without his red flags; he stumbled to the finish in 2007 and in the past has had elbow chips, a problem that tends to recur. He's become more flyball-oriented recently, leading to a big spike in his home run rate this year; the acquisition could encourage the Citi Field architects to push the fences back a few feet. And the days of him shouldering 230-240 innings a year may be behind him, although facing the pitcher two or three times a game may help him recover some of the lost workload.
    I love Keith, but the bit about Santana becoming more flyball oriented just doesn't seem to be true. Here are his flyball rates for the last six seasons. I have also included his homeruns-per-flyball rate to give you a better idea of why his homeruns allowed jumped last season:
    Year FB% HR/FB%
    2002 46.7% 5.7%
    2003 47.7% 8.5%
    2004 43.2% 10.3%
    2005 43.2% 8.4%
    2006 39.6% 9.9%
    2007 43.6% 13.1%

    2006 looks like the outlier in his flyball rate, but 2007 -- his big homerun allowed year -- his flyball rate was right back where it was before '06 and almost identical to his career mark of 43.5%. You'll notice that his homeruns per flyball increased dramatically last year, so either opponents are hitting the ball harder (not likely, considering his linedrive rate actually decreased in 2007), or maybe all of those extra homeruns were just flukey. Per Hit Tracker, his average homerun distance actually decreased from 393.4 feet in 2006 to 391.1 feet last year. Weird.

  • Bob Klapisch has all of the details on the Mets' acquisition of Santana yesterday. You can also check out the requisite Santana articles in The Post, The Daily News, and Newsday.
  • Aaron Gleeman breaks things down as only Aaron can:
    In poker terms, Smith slow-played a big hand and ended up dragging in less than the maximum pot. It's hard to swallow the possibility that the Twins missed out on acquiring Hughes and Melky Cabrera or Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and Justin Masterson. Those were very good offers for Santana and without Martinez included the Mets' offer falls short of those standards. However, there's a difference between the Mets' offer not being the best one and the Mets' offer not being a decent one.
  • At Twinkie Town, our buddy Jesse tries to put a shine on the prospects the Twins got (whom we know all so well). I talked with Jesse for a while last night, and he was far less apoplectic than most of the commenters at his site. Given the circumstances, GM Bill Smith was over a barrel -- partially his own doing -- and he made the best deal he could.
    These four players aren't bad players. They simply aren't Philip Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Jacoby Ellsbury or Jon Lester. Both Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra have a chance to turn into special players, Phil Humber will more than likely break camp with the Twins in the spring, and Kevin Mulvey has some upside as well.

    Even after we've separated our feelings of "what we should have received" from "what exactly did we get", it's going to be hard to be happy with what transpired yesterday. That's entirely natural, because we did just trade the best starting pitcher in baseball. Just remember that this deal was made with the future in mind, which coincides with A) not bringing back Torii Hunter, B) trading for one of the game's most promising young hitters and C) locking up Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer to long-term deals.

    I'll have a Q&A with Jesse up later on today, in all likelihood, so we can get some firsthand reaction from the other side of the tracks.
  • We've got a reaction roundtable up at MetsGeek today, so be sure to check that out.
  • MLB.com has player reaction to the deal from Billy Wagner, David Wright, Aaron Heilman and Tom Glavine. Wags is stoked:
    "If we get Johan Santana, we're back to being one of the five best teams in the game. I couldn't be happier. I know we'll all feel that way."
    For his part, Glavine tried not to get too worked up:
    "This certainly evens the balance within the division. I don't think this makes [the Mets] the class of the division. I think it puts them in a position where there rotation is much better and that was their biggest need.

    Within the division, I think you have three teams that can now not only win the division, but also the World Series. I think all three teams did a nice job of filling their biggest needs."

  • Beyond the Boxscore, our SBNation blog on sabermetrics, counts down Johan's ten best starts of his career. Head over there and read about what the Mets are getting (Hint: it's a very good pitcher).
  • In the New York Sun, Tim Marchman applauds the deal:
    Some baseball operators know many small things, and some know one big thing. The general manager of the Mets, Omar Minaya, knows one big thing — if you can afford it, you always go for the best player on the market.

    *snip*

    By trading for 28-year-old left-hander Johan Santana, generally considered the best pitcher in baseball, Minaya has outdone himself.

More in the comments.

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You know something?
It feels nice to be able to hate Glavine again.

by Josh on Jan 30, 2008 10:43 AM EST   0 recs

yes, screw glavine
it feels so much more natural.  

also, nice work pointing out the flyball ratio's, eric.  signs point to a flukey high HR year for santana.  its fun to read some of the other blogs of fans trying to downplay the whole deal, mostly by saying santana 'fell apart' at the end of last season.  yeah, fell apart, or just got really unlucky.  

heres another question, if el duque starts to struggle, should we move him to the pen and give pelfry some more looks in the rotation?  his will be a ST audition to watch.  

by kendynamo on Jan 30, 2008 10:57 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

who cares what Glavine thinks?
what was he going to say? "Jeez, I really got off the boat at the wrong time." GOOD RIDDANCE!

guess this means those Livan Hernandez rumors are going away.

If you gonna act like a fool, I'm gonna treat you like a fool....Fool ~Judge Greg T. Mathis~

by sireric on Jan 30, 2008 11:44 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

El Duque and Pelfrey
Honestly, I'd really like to see what Pelfrey can do out of the pen.  Considering the bullpen meltdown last year, and considering the Pelfrey's main weakness may be his lack of an effective 3rd pitch, he might be best suited for short relief.  If Pelfrey can turn into a lights-out 7th-8th inning guy, I think he, Heilman, Feliciano, a more experienced Joe Smith, and Wagner should make for a fine bullpen.

So to answer your question, I'd definitely have El Duque on a long leash.  Considering that he's the 5th guy, I'd leave him there all year barring injury.

On another note, at least this deal will keep Wagner happy.  I was worried about him opening his yap in spring training.  With LoDuca gone and Wagner placated, the clubhouse has to be in pretty good shape.

Let's Go Meters in New York!!!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jan 30, 2008 12:33 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

More Links
At ESPN.com, Tristan Cockcroft looks at the fantasy spin in the wake of the Santana deal.

At Baseball Prospectus: Unfiltered, Nate Silver ran a quick PECOTA projection for Santana as a Met. One word: gaudy.

At The Hardball Times, the THT staff analyzes the trade from a variety of angles.

Post your own links here as you come across them.

by Eric Simon on Jan 30, 2008 11:28 AM EST   0 recs

Observer
Our friend Howard Megdal has a piece on Santana over at the New York Observer.

by Eric Simon on Jan 30, 2008 12:42 PM EST   0 recs

Livan
I hope they sign him too

a 200 in 5th starter, with El Duque and Pelfrey in the PEN....I think that would be a smart move.

by chico on Jan 30, 2008 1:10 PM EST   0 recs

SNY
At SNY.tv, Michael Salfino breaks down Santana "by the numbers". Salfino does a great job at SNY so go check it out.

by Eric Simon on Jan 30, 2008 1:38 PM EST   0 recs

shorter George Vecsey
"I am a jackass..."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/31/sports/baseball/31vecsey.html?ref=sports

Essentially, the Mets are front-ending their pitching staff -- Santana for the departed Tom Glavine. That upgrade does not necessarily make them a better -- or more mature -- team for all 162 games this season.

Really, Santana won't play every game? Thanks, professor. (Also, Glavine's 2007 ERA+ was 96; JS's was 130. I submit that they will be a better team this year with Santana replacing Glavine.)
Even if Santana stays healthy, he is 28, and pitchers can fall apart in a heartbeat. For that matter, he did not have such a wonderful September himself. Besides, he can only start once every five games, or somewhat more than 30 starts a season. Let's say he wins 20 games. He is still taking up a certain number of starts that would have been made, and perhaps even won, by another regular.
With a good club, Santana could be worth five to eight more victories a year -- which sounds like enough to get the Mets into the post-season, when ace pitchers become even more pivotal, at least until their arms fall off from overwork.

How much younger could he be and have two Cy Young awards? 26? 27? His WHIP last year was 1.07! He had a bad Sept.? Maybe. He still struck out 35 dudes in 31 IP!
From then on, as far as I can see, Reyes began to sulk. Perhaps he played too many games -- 160 sounds like a lot, and maybe that was Randolph's fault -- but the clubhouse did not help Reyes, either.

Maybe it sounds like a lot because it's only two less than the absolute maximum you can play in the regular season. (Three in unusual cases.) I think he means his teammates didn't help him, not the physical structure.

He does have a point about Delgado, though. Delgado did not have a good year.

by citimetro on Jan 30, 2008 5:15 PM EST   0 recs

christ, what an asshole.
I just wanted to re-highlight the following piece of idiocy:
Let's say he wins 20 games. He is still taking up a certain number of starts that would have been made, and perhaps even won, by another regular.

Uh, George?  You know those funny-sounding acronyms ending in "ARP" and "ORP" that you've been complaining are ruining baseball?  You might want to look into those before you present this as though it were some kind of profound new insight (much less act like it made any sense as an argument that Santana really won't improve the team that much).

by anonymous on Jan 30, 2008 5:24 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Is this guy serious?
Maybe we should have 5 high schoolers pitch instead. Hell why even play the game.

C'mon, call it front end or whatever it is you want to call it. If a team acquires a #1 starter where they the hell is going to pitch, in the 5 hole? Give me a break.

His starts will be much more quality, go deeper into the game and help the defense. It might not be all about the wins but instead be about helping our bullpen and the defense in many ways wins or losses dont show up in the box score.

So yeah he will only pitch 1 in every 5 games but he will have an effect on the games he doesnt pitch in many ways.

We could potentially have 3 starters that produce 15-20 wins. And i'm not even talking about Pedro Martinez.

Dont give this guy the benefit of responding to his comments.

by sincethebeginning on Jan 30, 2008 5:35 PM EST   0 recs

anybody
read jayston stark's chat today? what a MORON.

by gogomets on Jan 30, 2008 9:21 PM EST   0 recs

maybe without the all-caps
Maybe I don't usually expect all that much from Stark, but I didn't find it too horrible.  There were a few kind of half-assed moments of his usual selective citation of stats and ignoring of other ones in the service of making a point for the peanut gallery (e.g. his case for the Phillies winning the division depending on the Phils outscoring the Mets without mentioning all the runs their pitching gave right back, or the bandbox they play in), and some questionable pronouncements delivered without argument (say, preferring Rollins to Reyes, or pretending for the Braves' fans' benefit that their team is a contender for the division).  But it was not much worse than your average Stark contribution -- admittedly, not high praise, but perhaps not MORONIC either.  Let's save that for the real MORONS, like Vecsey.

by anonymous on Jan 30, 2008 10:18 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

all caps?
yeah, my entire post was in all caps. shit, i forgot to turn it off. wait, only one word of it was. i was kind of using it for emphasis, just an fyi.

by your own description of his usual antics, he's a moron, so we're in agreement. good to hear.

by gogomets on Jan 31, 2008 12:56 AM EST   0 recs

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