Amazin' Avenue: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: The Boxing Bulletin for Boxing Fans!

2008 Mets Post-Mortem: The Ballad of Luis Castillo

If you were asked to guess the player with the highest walk rate (BB%) among Met hitters with at least 100 plate appearances in 2008, who might you throw out there? Carlos Beltran walks a lot, and he'd likely be my guess. David Wright also has great plate discipline, so he'd probably be a solid choice. Neither? Hmm. I see where this is going. Someone not-so-obvious. Got it: Dan Murphy. No? Gah, !@#$ me. Fine, who?

A: Luis Castillo.

Bingo. He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, the player who seems to be universally hated by fans and management alike, whose name precedes some variant of "absolutely has to be traded" on almost every Mets offseason wishlist, was the most disciplined hitter the Mets had this year. Care to guess how many regular second basemen walked at a better rate than Castillo? Zero. Or how many non-OF/1B/DH types did so? Four: Dave Ross, Chipper Jones, Craig Counsell and Ramon Santiago. Castillo's 14.4% BB% was 28th in all of baseball and his 1.43 BB/K rate (walks per strikeout) was 6th in the majors. He also stole 17 bases in 19 attempts, which is kind of astounding considering how hobbled he looked most of the time.

Of course, he doesn't hit for any power and his defense was terrible last year (his .751 RZR would have ranked dead last among NL second basemen had he played enough innings to qualify), though he has historically been a pretty good defensive player, and his lack of range this past season can certainly be attributed in part to his bad knees. There's no guarantee that his knees have gotten appreciably better, but he seemed to move around a bit better late in the season, whatever that's worth.

If we are to believe what we hear, the Mets may look to dump Castillo this offseason. Personally, I think that'd be a mistake, especially if they'd have to take on some other bad contract in return. Castillo is nothing special, but a second baseman who can steal bases and draw walks as Castillo can has plenty of value. That doesn't acquit Omar Minaya of signing him to that horrible contract, but if Castillo can stay somewhat healthy he is something quite different from useless. He's not Chase Utley or Dan Uggla, but he's also not what's holding the Mets back from becoming a championship team.

Who might be out there to replace Castillo if the Mets decided to trade him or relegate him to $6 million pinch-hitting duties? Orlando Hudson's name gets thrown around, though RZR rates his defense as one of the worst in the National League over the past three seasons, including dead last in 2008. His bat would be a huge upgrade over Castillo's, but at what cost? Four years and $40 million, plus the Mets' first round draft pick (or second-rounder, if their first goes to the Dodgers or Brewers or whomever else)?

The Mets might be better off trying to finagle a trade for the Orioles' Brian Roberts, who has been good-to-great defensively, draws plenty of walks, hits for some power, and is a prolific base-stealer. Roberts is set to make $8 million in 2009 in the final year of a two-year extension he signed in 2007. The Cubs tried relentlessly to pry Roberts from the O's last offseason to no avail, though Baltimore may be more inclined to trade Roberts this winter if they thought:

(a) they had no chance of competing in 2009 (they don't), and
(b) they could get something of substance in return

I don't know if that means the Mets would have to give up a Jon Niese or a Fernando Martinez to get someone of Roberts's talents, but I would at least try like hell to make something happen. I've personally been a big fan of Roberts's for three or four years now, hoping he'd find his way into a Mets uniform one of these days.

Internally, the Mets don't have a lot of options. Actually, that's not really true; they have options, they're just mostly terrible ones. Argenis Reyes is pretty clearly not the answer. He's almost as bad a hitter as Anderson Hernandez was in his time with the Mets, and the novelty of having a Reyes-Reyes double-play combination does not offset the fact that Argenis brings zero to the table offensively. Damion Easley is a free agent, and I'd be surprised (disappointed?) if the Mets brought him back. He had a nice year with them in 2007 and a couple of big moments in 2008, but for the most part he was either hurt or unproductive for the better part of the season. He'll also be 39 in November.

The only interesting name within the Mets' organization who could conceivably help the Mets next season is Daniel Murphy, who is currently seeing playing time at second base in the Arizona Fall League. The Mets have said that they have no intention of moving him to 2B in 2009, but my guess is that the front office is simply hedging its bets in case Murphy is a complete disaster at the keystone. Odds are good that Murphy will be pretty bad, as he's moving from an easier defensive position (left field, or even third base which he played in the minors) to a much more difficult one. However, if Murphy turns out to be even adequate defensively at second base, the Mets will have found a real gem. His bat doesn't appear to be strong enough to carry a corner outfield spot, but it would be plenty productive at second, and the Mets would have a young, cheap, homegrown talent to go along with David Wright and Jose Reyes in the infield for years to come. Don't pencil him in just yet; he's still a long shot to be anything more than a failed experiment.

At all events, if we enumerate the Mets' shortcomings in 2008, lack of a solid second baseman would not be especially high on that list. Sure, every bit helps, but pitching -- both starting and relieving -- will have to be the priorities this offseason. If something falls in their lap to improve the team at second base, gravy, but I don't expect the Mets to spend a whole lot of time worrying about it.

0 recs  |  Comment 18 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Swing much?

Part of the reason that Castillo walks so much is because he goes up there praying for a walk. I’ve never seen a guy take as many easy pitches in RBI situations as this dude does. So I wouldn’t call his approach “disciplined” as much as I would call it “neurotically passive”. He has severe limitations and he knows it.

As far as his knees, he DID come back and look a lot better in the field… for about 5 games, and then he tweaked his legs again and started moving around with the classic Castillo limp again.

His signing is easily the worst move of Omar’s tenure. Just insane, really.

by DannyMetsGeek on Oct 10, 2008 8:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

bingo

I was just about to say the same thing. It’s nice to have a good walk rate, but if you can’t hit the ball ever it doesn’t really do much good.

I would LOVE for the Mets to get Brian Roberts. I live just north of DC, so Orioles games are on TV down here all the time, and he’s a very solid player. Good defense, very good plate discipline (89 & 82 BBs last 2 years) decent pop, (his homer numbers have dropped the last 3 years, but his doubles have gone from 34 to 42 to 51 this year), and he’s the kinda guy fans love.

Maybe we can also convince the Orioles to give us Melvin Mora back, plus a time machine to go back to 2000 and re-try that World Series with him instead of Bordick…

by cjmulrain on Oct 10, 2008 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plus

Can anyone remember an PA where Castillo didn’t square to bunt at least once? I would love to find a stat that has bunt attempts per PA and see where Castillo ranks. I would have to believe he is at the top of that list.

by Reg Dunlop on Oct 10, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If there really was a Ballad of Luis Castillo . . .

maybe it would be “Release Me” by Englebert Humperdinck?

Or maybe that’s the Ballad of the 2008 Mets Fan. Shit.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 10, 2008 9:01 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Let's not conflate a weak market position with Castillo's value

It’s one thing to argue that the Mets have few enticing options other than Castillo. That’s more or less true; either based on the relative value of other options in the 2b market or the cost. However, it seems like you’re coming to the conclusion that Castillo’s “not that bad” through the lens of NY’s weak market position for 2nd basemen. Those issues are related but distinct.

On offense, Castillo is not that valuable because he’s a one trick pony. Of course, drawing walks is a pretty good trick. But his OBP (.355) isn’t bowl-me-over good, his OPS was dead last among 2b, and his runs scored and runs created are sickly. He was barely more valuable offensively than Easley. Since he’s not going to hit for any power he’d have to be a far more prolific base stealer—not just an efficient one—to offset. And when he’s run more in the past he has been markedly less efficient. Add to that, his knees are probably going to remain an ongoing problem for the duration of his career. As I understand it, he has a cartilage issue and those tend to be degenerative. He’s going to be gimpy and have to play in pain. For those reasons alone I doubt we’ll see much of a defensive renaissance. The very distinct possibility here is that this could very well be the best year Castillo will have under this deal. Seems to me the Mets’ advance scouts blew it on this one. They signed the Luis Castillo of 4 years ago.

I’d have little trouble jettisoning Castillo, and would go so far as to call it a priority (though not the top one). It’s really a question of finding the best deal. He’s not quite mortgage-backed security toxic, but he can’t have much value at his price particularly since he really can no longer defend. We’re gonna have to pay to get rid of him. If we can’t even do that, and are forced to keep him, I suspect we would still need a semi-everyday 2b. I don’t think we can afford to play him everyday (and my reading of the Jerry Manuel signing is an affirmation of this by the front office).

I think the mob is right on this one, even if for the wrong reasons. We must look for a new 2b independent of moving Castillo. He’s not going to be much more productive than he is right now and his cost is basically sunk. (I should add on a blind optimism note that Castillo posted a semi-unlucky .267 on balls in play. But then his high GB/low LD percentages make me skeptical about whether we should expect any kind of real bounce next year.) When thinking about other options, Hudson and Roberts are clearly “A” list. But, I definitely see your point about potentially breaking the bank and the farm system to get rid of Castillo AND get a Hudson or Roberts. That prospect is frightening. Those two however may not be the only options out there that might provide a significant boost.

This will be a challenging offseason for Omar. Significantly re-tool without ripping up the core. That’s a tall order.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Oct 10, 2008 9:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Conflation

A player’s value and the availability of a positional upgrade are not independent forces. A player’s value is always relative to his position and the strength/weakness of that position in turn has a huge bearing on the player’s value. Castillo is not a great player and his contract was a colossal mistake, but he’s far from useless. He was awful/injured this year, but he was worth two wins over replacement as recently as 2007. That’s not a star by any means, but it’s a player with some value, and more than most people give him credit for.

by Eric Simon on Oct 10, 2008 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In my opinion

I think the only way Castillo could be useful in the line-up is if we used the LaRussa method and had him hit 9th. The only thing he’s good for is walks. If nothing else he might give Reyes and whoever we put in the two hole, hopefully not an another offensive black-hole, more rbi opportunities.

by Gina on Oct 10, 2008 10:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

one of castillo's legs is longer than the other

what a freak!

the contract is a piece of garbage but as long as Omar et al make decisions based on getting the best 9 players in the line up and not the highest paid players then i dont care how much gimpo castillo is getting paid.

by kendynamo on Oct 10, 2008 10:33 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Before we worry about 2B

Let’s see how the pitching staff shakes out.

Johan became a GB pitcher this year, and if his velocity continues to decline, and he relies more on a sinking fastball and change-up, this trend will likely continue. Pelfrey is a GB pitcher and Neise, in limited action got more GB’s then FB’s. If the Mets add Sabathia, Lowe, or even Jon Garland, these guys are GB pitchers.If this is the direction the Mets go in, then dump Castillo (or bench him) and get someone who is a good defensive 2B even if their offensive contributions are limited (i.e Our Anus and his .885 RZR)

If the Mets decide Neise isn’t ready and they re-sign Ollie, or fill in the rotation with a FB pitchers, then they can accept Castillo’s limited offensive ability or find a better offensive option (i.e. Dan Murphy).

Either way, the pitching staff should drive the 2B decision. Especially since J. Reyes showed decreased range this year and Delgado has no range.

by Reg Dunlop on Oct 10, 2008 10:57 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Delgado

Just for fun I went and looked up his fielding stats. RZR ranked him fourth in the NL among twelve qualified first basemen. He was 6th on balls fielded outside of his zone.

by Eric Simon on Oct 10, 2008 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow!

I’m surprised by that.

by Reg Dunlop on Oct 10, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Taking a closer look at those numbers

While they are better then I expected, there is a significant drop off from the best fielding 1B’s to Delgado. There has also been a significant rise in the number of Balls in Zone since 2006.

Delgado wasn’t the worst fielding 1B, but he was far from the best. If the Mets are going to shift to a GB heavy staff, I think the priority at 2B should be defense at the expense of offense.

by Reg Dunlop on Oct 10, 2008 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Delgado

Not contending that he’s anything like the best, but it seems that he was far from awful in 2008, which is great for him.

Also, an increase in Balls in Zone wouldn’t necessarily affect his RZR, which represents the percentage of those balls that he gets to, not the total number.

by Eric Simon on Oct 10, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

BIZ

I didn’t mean to imply that BIZ necessarily affects RZR. I meant it as an indicator that the Mets have become more of a GB team over the past few years. (although I only glanced at some numbers so I could be wrong)

If that trend continues, I think the front office has to look more at up the middle D then offense from 2B.

by Reg Dunlop on Oct 10, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Too soon to trade Castillo.

With 3 guaranteed years left, there will be no takers unless the Mets eat most of the salary and take back suspects (not prospects) or accept an equally bad contract. So what would be the point? Let’s just hope he’s healthier next year.

If only Castillo’s contract expired after ’09. Then maybe they could trade him and his expiring contract to a team looking for salary cap relief. Oops, wrong league.

by madisonmetsfan on Oct 10, 2008 11:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

the Irish Hammer

“[Murphy’s] bat doesn’t appear to be strong enough to carry a corner outfield spot…”

Murphy OPS+ed 131 as a rookie. The teams remaining in the playoffs had corner outfielders OPS+ 126 (Ethier), 213 (Manny as a Dodger), 123 (Burrell), 119 (Werth), 139 (Drew), 138 (Manny as a Red Sox), 130 (Bay as a Red Sox), 91 (Crawford), 104 (Gross). 131 would rank him slightly behind Carlos Pena and slightly ahead of Evan Longoria for second highest on the Rays; only the absurd raking Manny did after the trade was a whole lot better than Murphy.

Now, if you think maybe that 131 is unsustainable, that’s a separate issue. Certainly baseball history is littered with the metaphorical corpses of players who crushed the ball as rookies and then fell off a cliff when word got around the league that they couldn’t hit a __________. It’s premature to say that Murphy is a good enough hitter to be an everyday MLB starting corner outfielder after 151 plate appearances, but I think it’s equally premature to say for sure that he isn’t.

by JoshNY on Oct 10, 2008 4:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Murphy

The implication was that his production was unsustainable.

by Eric Simon on Oct 10, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hmm

that’s a possibility, I guess. his walk rate was decent. his BABIP was very high but his line drive rate was very high also, and I suppose that part might be unsustainable – nobody has a 33.3% line drive rate over the course of a full season, let alone a career.

by JoshNY on Oct 10, 2008 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Start posting about the Mets »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Axolotl_small
Ezequial Carrera
Axolotl_small
Jose Valentin
Axolotl_small
Castillo for Snyder?
Small
AAOP - It's Late, But Still Good
Small
AAOP: A new outlook...
Me_go_mets_small
AAOP: Just get Pujols
Small
AAOP: Supplementing the Core
Small
AAOP
The_buddha_by_lord_karsus_small
Grissionometer
Misc_007_small
Madoff, Backman, and an Old Baseball Jacket

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recommended FanShots

Marty Noble: Glavine Claims Young Mets Weren't Offended By Losing
WAR analysis of AAOPs

Recent FanShots

Anybody know any good websites to find old video footage of games from...
Sunday Morning Funnies
NY Times Quotes a Metsblog commenter
Mets have inquired about Crawford
Mets expand presence of history at Citi
And you thought the "I'm thankful for Jeff Francoeur" MetsMerized graphic was a bit ridiculous
Metsmerized steals Grission
Sources: Keith Hernandez Returning to SNY
No Matt Holliday or Jason Bay apparently means Adrian Gonzalez
Wallace Matthews says Mets should look to 2011

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

Sponsors


THE BIG GUY

Aa_avatar_small Eric Simon

THE INCREDIBLES

Blackfish2_small Alex Nelson

Cj_small Sam Page

Best_infield_ever_small James Kannengieser

THE NEWS GURU

Wrightfront_small Joe Budd

THE POET LAUREATE

Hamheadshot__1__small Howard Megdal