2009 Bill James Projections: Mets Hitters

by Eric Simon on Oct 20, 2008 8:00 AM EDT in Stats Comment 33 comments

No sooner has the 2008 season ended than we're blessed with the first batch of 2009 projections. These come courtesy of ACTA Sports and The Bill James Handbook. The BJH will be availabe on November 1st, months ahead of most of the other baseball annuals, which is great because we get numbers to play with, though we have to accept that the rosters here could change quite a bit by the time next season rolls around.

Here we go.

Hitter	Age	G	AB	HR	RC	Avg	OBP	Slg	OPS
Marlon Anderson	35	74	115	2	13	0.252	0.312	0.357	0.669
Carlos Beltran	32	156	593	30	111	0.277	0.369	0.501	0.870
Luis Castillo	33	123	448	3	57	0.281	0.362	0.344	0.706
Ramon Castro	33	56	167	8	25	0.257	0.330	0.455	0.785
Endy Chavez	31	105	234	2	27	0.274	0.317	0.363	0.681
Ryan Church	30	128	444	16	69	0.275	0.348	0.457	0.805
Carlos Delgado	37	151	558	33	98	0.263	0.361	0.502	0.863
Damion Easley	39	112	278	8	33	0.248	0.317	0.385	0.702
Nick Evans	23	50	162	6	27	0.284	0.341	0.488	0.829
Fernando Martinez	20	128	436	9	53	0.264	0.314	0.390	0.704
Daniel Murphy	24	139	456	14	80	0.296	0.371	0.478	0.849
Jose Reyes	26	160	669	14	108	0.290	0.349	0.448	0.798
Brian Schneider	32	125	405	9	48	0.247	0.328	0.368	0.696
Fernando Tatis	34	88	261	10	36	0.253	0.330	0.429	0.759
David Wright	26	160	618	33	136	0.311	0.402	0.552	0.953

Let's remember that these are just projections. Some numbers and algorithms went into a computer and these popped out. That's a really simplistic way of looking at what is surely a very complex system, and I don't describe it that way to make light of all of the work that goes into developing and implementing a projection system. Forecasting ballplayers may seem like a frivolous use of time, but there is little doubt that most if not all big league teams use player projections of some form or another. They'd be crazy not to use the many years of baseball data that exists to analyze the likelihood of certain performance results for free agents, players on their own team or potential trade targets on other teams. Projections don't tell us what is guaranteed to happen, but they do tell us what could very likely happen, and that should at least be a part of any reasonable player analysis, whether you're in a big league front office or a humble website sending information through this sophisticated series of tubes we call the internets.

Some thoughts on the Mets, bullet-wise.

Marlon Anderson should be jettisoned post-haste. He is not better than Val Pascucci. I'm not sure he's better than Morten Anderson. Why was it necessary to sign him for two years? Anyone?
Carlos Voltron is a god.
Luis Castillo is a Met.
Can Brian Schneider never start again? Can Ramon Castro please stay healthy? The 80 points separating their OPS projections is not insignificant.
Endy Chavez isn't much of a hitter, though he could be one of the most undervalued commodities in baseball.
Ryan Church's projection isn't terrible, but it's not great, either. For comparison, Lastings Milledge's projection is .281/.347/.439. I don't feel so well.
Carlos Delgado, not so bad. The computer thinks Carlos will continue his resurgence and put up an OPS similar to his 2008 mark, which is middle of the pack among big league first basemen.
Damion Easley: Time to retire.
Mark my words: Nick Evans will not OPS .829. Nice thought, though.
Fernando Martinez: Not ready for the big time yet.
Daniel Murphy is the Irish Hammer. Close your eyes. Now picture the Irish Hammer. Now picture him hitting .296/.371/.478 as a 24-year-old. Now picture him doing it at second base. Feel better? How did you read all of that with your eyes closed, eh? Cheater.
I'm a little disappointed in Jose Reyes's projection. That .798 OPS would be a 35-point dropoff from his 2008 line. I'll take the over on this one.
Is it wrong to wish that Brian Schneider had been driving that car in DR and not Ambiorix Burgos? Yea. Probably.
The Mets could do far worse than Fernando Tatis as a righty bat off the bench, Or: Sixteen words I couldn't have fathomed writing a year ago.
David Wright: Yea, let's trade this bum.

I'll post the pitcher projections tomorrow, and then some free agent/trade target projections on Wednesday.

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Comments

Nick Evans

Maybe he meant against lefties?

But his minor league numbers were awesome. I don’t see how he could make a big enough jump against righties in one off-season to post an .829 OPS but I guess its not impossible.

by Gina on Oct 20, 2008 8:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Evans

As I’ve noted before, he’s a year younger than the Irish Hammer and posted better numbers than him over a full season in St. Lucie in 2007 and over about a half season in Binghamton in 2008. I’m not saying he’ll be as good a hitter in the majors, but it’s not inconceivable that he could at least become an adequate one.

(Aside: Firefox’s spell check does not recognize “Binghamton” and thinks I meant to type “Birmingham”, “Buckingham”, “Nottingham” or “Cunningham”. Do I have this set for UK English and not realize it?)

by JoshNY on Oct 20, 2008 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Snooty British elitist browser.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 20, 2008 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well played, sir.

Well played.

by JoshNY on Oct 20, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Firefox

You know you can add words to Firefox’s dictionary, right?

by Eric Simon on Oct 20, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, I know that.

I just think it’s funny that those were the default suggestions.

by JoshNY on Oct 20, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

It seems to me we need to rebuild our bench. Easley and Anderson kind of aren’t going to get it done offensively. And Chavez is only good for his defense.

by Gina on Oct 20, 2008 8:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Marlon Anderson

I believe the fake word I made up to describe Marlon Anderson’s value to the Mets was “grumilitude.” It’s like grittiness, but only not so short, skinny and pasty.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 20, 2008 9:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Would be plenty thrilled

if Evans puts up an OPS over .800 off the bench. And in what alternate reality is Fernando Martinez getting 436 Major League ABs next year?

One question about these, are they ballpark adjusted? Because as of right now, nobody knows how Citi is gonna play…for all we know it could be a bandbox like CBP or it could turn into another Comerica park. I know it’s being designed with “pitcher-friendly dimensions” (tell that to all the pitchers who are gonna give up jacks into the short porch in right), but CBP was designed as a pitchers park too, except the morons in Philly didn’t consider the effect on wind patterns that tearing the Vet down would have. And we know how that worked out.

by cjmulrain on Oct 20, 2008 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Park

The projections are not park-adjusted.

by Eric Simon on Oct 20, 2008 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Church

I have to think that Church’s numbers are a little off in the sense that he didn’t play a full season. Had he not been hurt and had the issues with the medical staff he could have had a career year and his numbers would certainly have been projected higher.

by DjDeF on Oct 20, 2008 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gina

For what it’s worth his preseason PECOTA predictions had him having basically the same year he had this year, including missing as many games as he did, and then falling off majorly, statistically speaking at least, next year.

by Gina on Oct 20, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i have a projection for marlon anderson

lets project him into the upper reaches of the atmosphere.

by kendynamo on Oct 20, 2008 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jose Reyes

as you mentioned Eric, that projection seems way off. Both BA and OBP seem far too low. SLG as well and therefore of course OPS. Reyes got unlucky in September otherwise his final 2008 numbers would have been better but even so he posted better numbers than last year. This projection has him regressing down to the lows of 2007 when he is only 25. No reason barring injury why that would be the case. Maybe Mike Francessa hacked into the Bill James database!!!

by Endys Game on Oct 20, 2008 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Francesa

If he had, Reyes would be on another team altogether.

by Eric Simon on Oct 20, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Francesa plus

After being traded, Jose would learn to respect the game and not celebrate or show much emotion on the field. It is, after all, the Yankee Way – the only true way to play the game.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 20, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

praise be to Jeter

by JoshNY on Oct 20, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i dunno

Jose comes up pretty short in the grumilitude department.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself in to trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Oct 20, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Full circle

And that’s why we need Marlon Anderson!

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 20, 2008 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

GVOR

What is Anderson’s Grumilitude Value Over Replacement (GVOR)? Maybe there is someone with a higher GVOR or a younger player with a similar GVOR to replace him.

by Reg Dunlop on Oct 20, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about

we make Marlon Anderson the starting shortstop and move Reyes to second? Anderson won six Gold Gloves in the Mexican league.

"I just want to thank you for being such a goddam prince, that's all." - Holden Caulfield

by Prince on Oct 20, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

the only exception being Joba Chamberlin. Since like Jeter he is also god-like but has overcome so so much unlike mere mortals, he can show as much emotion as he wants either on the field or while taking a breathalyzer.

by Endys Game on Oct 20, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

apparently the Joba Rules don't say anything about allowable BAC

by JoshNY on Oct 20, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bill James on Reyes

Oddly, James’ projections always seem to short-change Reyes, especially on OBP. At this point, I’d take the projections with a grain of salt. Reyes is a .360 OBP guy, whether the computers like it or not.

Also, if Nick Evans and Daniel Murphy hit like those projections, the offense will be pretty damn good next year.

Vote change: DePodesta/Acta in 2009!!!

by Greenpoint Ian on Oct 20, 2008 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's remember

The offense was pretty damned good this year. The pitching, not so much.

by Eric Simon on Oct 20, 2008 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

all projected stats for Reyes often seem tooshirtchange him. I remember in 2006 his PECOTA projection was so bad that BP actually argued in seriousness that he should spend the year in Triple A!! That Would have Sucked, as Eric would say.

by Endys Game on Oct 21, 2008 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Schneider

really could be worse. I’m actually more worried about what we’ll do when he’s gone after next year. I don’t want to sign him again, and I doubt that Thole will be ready in ‘10, if he ever is. (Although I’m uncharacteristically pessimistic about Thole—my weakness is in fact falling in love with our prospects—I do think he’s got more than a chance of being an effective MLB player.)

If Thole does not work out, as is probably going to be the case, then by 2010, we’ll have a 31 year old arbitration eligible Church being outperformed by a 25 year old Milledge and once again be scrambling for a catcher. Thus the trade will have been unambiguously and substantially counterproductive, as everyone knew from the beginning.

BTW, my first post; greetings.

I will not allow the denigration of the life essence

by GenJackRipper on Oct 21, 2008 1:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Milledge

put up a 91 OPS+ last year at age 23 and plays brutal defense. Not saying it was a good trade, but it wasn’t a bad one.

That guy who’s gonna be starting Game 1 tomorrow night on the other hand…

by cjmulrain on Oct 21, 2008 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but he's only 23.

His peak years are still a few years off. Remember Reyes at 23? 23 year-olds get better; 30 year-old outfielders rarely do (and if they do, it’s a shorter peak), and almost 32 year-old catchers never do. Long-term, the deal’s likely to be a loser. The only way it works in the short-term is if Church gets healthy again next season.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 21, 2008 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not entirely fair

to mention Milledge’s statistics without mentioning that he OPSed .850 after coming back from the DL in August. He’s developing, and he outperformed Church at every stage in their respective developments. Furthermore, even if Church outperforms him slightly, the longer period of control for Milledge offsets this. Also, despite how bad he looked in some of the Met games, his metrics are good; so the jury’s still out on this.

The one thing you could have said is that Milledge is a CF on a team with the best CF in the NL, so it would have been wise to trade him for a young corner outfield bat with a slightly better bat, not an older corner outfielder with a similar bat.

I will not allow the denigration of the life essence

by GenJackRipper on Oct 22, 2008 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the Metrics might be good

but I live in DC, went to about 15 games this year, he played in about 10-11 of them, and he made at least 1 bad-to-terrible play in each of them. Maybe those were his only 10 or 11 bad plays all year, but that seems pretty doubtful. I’d rather have the steady hand of someone like Beltran or Church than someone who makes a few great plays and a lot of boneheaded ones.

And Church OPSed .903 before his concussion. Not that he was gonna keep up that pace, but I’d be willing to put a lot of money down that without the concussion he wouldn’t have regressed as much as he did. Had he played the whole season, the Mets might have been 2-3 games better, and that trade wouldn’t look so bad.

And to BobbyvIncognito, yea I remember Reyes as a 23 Y.O., he was an MVP candidate on the 2006 Mets:

Reyes as a 23 Y.O. hit .300/.354/.487, 115 OPS+
Wright as a 23 Y.O. hit .311/.381/.531, 133 OPS+
Milledge as a 23 Y.O. hit .268/.330/.402, 91 OPS+

by cjmulrain on Oct 22, 2008 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mike Francessa

Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room.

I will not allow the denigration of the life essence

by GenJackRipper on Oct 21, 2008 1:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Catcher Platoon

The overall OPS comparison for Schneider and Castro is a little deceiving because against righties, Schneider’s OPS is higher than Castro’s (both career and 2008 numbers). So a platoon really is the logical solution based on OPS numbers.

by birtelcom on Oct 21, 2008 6:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs