2009 Bill James Projections: Mets Pitchers

by Eric Simon on Oct 21, 2008 8:00 AM EDT Comment 29 comments

Yesterday we looked at The Bill James Handbook Mets hitter projections for next year, so go check 'em out if you missed it. Today we'll take a look at the pitcher projections.

Pitcher	Age	G	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	BR/9	ERA
Luis Ayala	31	78	76	79	8	18	49	12.0	3.94
Pedro Feliciano	32	86	50	46	4	22	45	12.8	3.90
Nelson Figueroa	35	18	33	35	5	14	20	13.9	4.90
Aaron Heilman	30	70	64	58	6	27	56	12.5	3.82
John Maine	28	25	145	135	18	62	122	12.5	3.98
Pedro Martinez	37	20	120	106	13	32	122	10.9	3.36
Mike Pelfrey	25	31	211	225	14	82	140	13.8	4.35
Oliver Perez	27	34	204	186	31	109	205	13.5	4.53
Duaner Sanchez	29	59	47	44	4	19	35	12.6	3.91
Johan Santana	30	34	230	189	25	58	234	9.8	3.01
Scott Schoeneweis	35	71	51	52	6	21	32	13.4	4.43
Joe Smith	25	85	62	58	4	32	54	13.9	4.09
Brian Stokes	29	46	67	76	8	25	47	14.0	4.90

If we took yesterday's hitter projections with the proverbial grain of salt, we'll have to take the pitcher projections with a heaping spoonful of same because pitcher projections are simply spottier than hitter projections. Pitchers tend to be a more volatile breed than hitters for a couple of big reasons I can think of. First, even the most workhorse-like of starting pitchers play far less than regular position players (by a factor of around five). This means that a crummy day for a pitcher is a lot more harmful to his overall season performance than a bad day for a hitter. It also means that if something isn't working right, a pitcher has to wait four days to give it another go in a real game. If a hitter's swing is off he can get right out there the next day and try to swing his way out of it.

Two of these starting pitchers are at least even money to be playing elsewhere in 2009, and any or all of the relievers could be gone, too. That's not to say that the entire relief corps will be replaced, just that there isn't a single name on this list that I'd be surprised to find pitching for someone other than the Mets next season.

Take a long hard look at Luis Ayala's projection, because most of the other relievers are pretty similar. High-threes ERA, WHIP in the 1.25 range. Ayala's strikeout rate is not encouraging, though he's probably effective enough to pitch in the middle innings. He's not a closer, and he's not even really an eighth-inning guy.
Pedro Feliciano is a LOOGY, so that ERA could be quite a bit lower than 3.90 if he is used fairly strictly against lefties.
If Nelson Figueroa is on this team in April then Omar Minaya did another crappy job of bullpen assembly.
I still like Aaron Heilman, even if nobody else does. He could very well have been injured this year, and if he can get the walks down he'll be very successful again. Trading him at his low water mark in value would be a huge mistake.
I'll take those numbers from John Maine. Why is everyone clamoring for him to be a closer?
Biggest surprise here: Pedro Martinez's arguably overoptimistic projection for 2009. 3.36 ERA and a 4:1 K:BB ratio? Even for just 120 innings I'll take those numbers.
Mike Pelfrey's strikeouts seem high, here, as does the ERA. There'll be plenty of pressure on him this year because now we know he's actually a good pitcher. He flew under the radar a bit in the past because we only *thought* he was good.
Oliver Perez can take those 109 walks to Milwaukee or St. Louis.
Duaner Sanchez had some control issues this year and I think he ran out of gas a bit towards the end of the season. Given some time off this winter and the post-surgery season under his belt, he could definitely contribute to this bullpen next year.
Johan Santana. There are no words. Except those. And those. And these.
Scott Schoeneweis is still useful as a LOOGY, but the Mets already have one of those. No need to carry both of them again, is there?
Joe Smith needs to keep the walks down and he'll be fine.
BJH is not optimistic about Brian Stokes. I'll take the under on this one. I liked what I saw out of him this year and I think he can definitely be part of the solution in 2009.

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Question

I don’t know much about the projection process. Does the robot ever have anyone with an ERA under 3 or over 5? I guess all numbers have to trend towards the safe middle.

I agree with you that John Maine is an asset to our rotation, which needs him badly. I think moving him to the bullpen would be silly at this point, I mean, unless Omar goes into a coma and has swallowed the magic amulet of trades and signings and the bullpen is exactly the same on April 1. Please god help us all if that’s the case.

by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Oct 21, 2008 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the under on Stokes

should that be taken to mean “his ERA will be under 4.90” as opposed to “his performance will not be as good as that projection”?

by JoshNY on Oct 21, 2008 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good point

The former, though. I think he’ll be better than his projection.

by Eric Simon on Oct 21, 2008 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why doesn't BJH like Pelfrey?

A lot of people seem to believe Pelfrey’s turned the corner and has become, if not a star, a quality 2-3 starter (I’d say 3, but with room to move up). So why does BJH think he will regress, especially as to hits and walks per inning and ERA? Either they think his 2d half was a mirage or they think 200 innings in ‘08 was too much for him and he’s an injury risk—but if it’s the latter, why project even more innings in ’09?

by madisonmetsfan on Oct 21, 2008 10:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pelfrey

From what I understand stats show that Pelfrey’s numbers this year more to do with luck and the defense behind him than his skills. His FIP was like 4.3 or something. I don’t know about his walks per nine, maybe they think batters will catch up to his pitches or something.

by Gina on Oct 21, 2008 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pelfrey

The problem with projecting Pelfrey is that he’s an extreme sinkerballer, and sinkerballers almost universally outperform their expected ERAs.

by Eric Simon on Oct 21, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bill James just hates all of our pitchers

except for Johan Santana.

I find these projections just wierd. Maine’s ERA is expected to be higher than any he’s posted as a Met these last 2 years.

I will not allow the denigration of the life essence

by GenJackRipper on Oct 21, 2008 11:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure

These aren’t park adjusted, so I’d imagine shea being a bit of a pitchers park might explain why the numbers seem high.

Also he seems to really like Pedro.

by Gina on Oct 21, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oops

Scratch that on Maine; I misrecalled Pelfrey’s projections as Maine’s. But still, Pelfrey’s ERA jumps .50 points and Maine barely recovers from an injury-plagued season?

I will not allow the denigration of the life essence

by GenJackRipper on Oct 21, 2008 11:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bill James

I should note that Bill James has surprisingly little to do with these projections. His name is on the book, obviously, but I don’t think he is heavily involved in the development of the projection systems.

by Eric Simon on Oct 21, 2008 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True about Pedro

Topsy turvey I’d say. Feliciano’s numbers are absurdly worse than his career stats. It seems like Bill simply thinks that this year was the moment of truth.

And I’m using Bill James as a convenient shorthand for the projection system. I realize that it’s not him who’s running the numbers.

I will not allow the denigration of the life essence

by GenJackRipper on Oct 21, 2008 11:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pedro

I don’t know a huge amount about how these projectons work but I know they’re not usually very good for the very old and the very young. I’d imagine Pedro falls into the very old. Remember how ridiculously dominate he was in his prime, that probably skews his numbers a lot.

by Gina on Oct 21, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maine

I’m concerned about his numbers, namely, the 145 IP. He’s only pitched over 140 once, and it was last year when his 2nd half ERA was over 5.00. He has not shown the durability needed to be a reliable starter. I don’t think it’s a bad idea to consider him for a bullpen role if you can find a useful replacement.

by Reg Dunlop on Oct 21, 2008 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Useful replacement

Like Tony Armas? Or Claudio Vargas? Or Nelson Figueroa?

by Eric Simon on Oct 21, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If's

Unfortunately there is no readily available option in the organization and it would be tough given the fact that there are already two holes in the rotation. But IF something became available I think it’s worth considering.

Also, IF Maine is only projected to throw 145 innings, the Mets are going to have to find someone to make up his other 50-60 innings. It probably then falls to someone like Armas, Vargas, Figueroa, or someone of that ilk. Maybe it’s worth looking for someone who is more likely to throw 200 innings and consider Maine as a closer instead giving a big contract to K-Rod or Fuentes.

Again, I know it’s not likely given the rotation status, but It may be worth exploring.

by Reg Dunlop on Oct 21, 2008 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not unreliable

this was only maine’s second full season, so saying that he’s only pitched over 140 once is a bit misleading. he made 32 starts in 2007 and made 25 last year. i’ll take 25-30 starts from Maine at his low cost in 2009 easily, especially considering the ollie and pedro will probably be gone. bad enough we have to find two decent starters for next year – let’s not make it three.

by englishgrey on Oct 21, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think that's a sure thing

I know nothing is a sure thing, but, I’ve always been cautious about what Maine can do over the course of a season. He was a nice surprise in 2006 but only pitched in the second half. (I think he got injured after one start early in the year.) He got off to a great start in 2007 but really struggled after about 100 IP. This year was tough year from the start and ended with an injury. Until Maine goes out and pitches 190-200 solid innings in which his performance is consistent over both halves, I’m going to have doubts about his reliability. Unfortunately, given the rotation status, there is probably no other option then to hope he rebounds.

by Reg Dunlop on Oct 21, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Reg, I think you are right on the money here. This was supposed to be Maine’s breakout year and well he did not break out. Now that does not mean he is not a decent starter but his reliability throughout the whole season is very much in doubt. I still don’t see the sense in making him a closer however.

by Endys Game on Oct 21, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i would agree with the caution

maine was a disappointment this year in the sense that he never put together a long string of good starts (the way pelfrey did at points or santana did all year) and was inconsistent at times. but he’s shown the potential to be a great starter, so i think moving him to the bullpen as a closer is a bit premature.

by englishgrey on Oct 21, 2008 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bullpen

the lowest projected ERA in our bullpen is a 3.82 from the immortal Aaron Heilman….YIKES

I agree with Eric that both Feliciano and Duaner could outperform these projections, and I don’t mind trying Stokes out, but other than that I think we need to bring in a whole new cast of characters.

I believe Heilman has decent innings left in his arm, but I don’t think they’re gonna happen in NY. I have a bad feeling that his psyche is shot: he needs to go to a small-market team where the fans will let him rebuild his confidence a bit. That, or the minors. But the next time he gives up a big homer at Citi Field, the boos will come raining down…it’s just not a good environment for him at this point.

by cjmulrain on Oct 21, 2008 1:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Heilman as a starter??

Is that idea dead for all time ??

by Endys Game on Oct 21, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seems like Omar and Jerry think it is

It’s awfully tough to succeed as a starter if you only have two pitches; that’s one factor working against Aaron.

by JoshNY on Oct 21, 2008 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2 pitches

Seems to be the m.o for our starters anyway. Well other than Johan and old man Pedro.

by Gina on Oct 21, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

heilman threw the slider this year

so i’d say he has more than 2 pitches. the quality of the pitches, however, is the question.

by gogomets on Oct 21, 2008 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

pedro

he had an above 5.61 era last year, a plus-1.5 WHIP, and he is currently coming off his third consecutive injury plagued season. so why does BHJ believe he’ll have a 3.36 era? seems not even in the realm of possibility.

by englishgrey on Oct 21, 2008 2:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nelson Figueroa for long relief in 2009

You wrote, “If Nelson Figueroa is on this team in April then Omar Minaya did another crappy job of bullpen assembly.” Boy are you wrong!

Figueroa was on the Mets in April and May, then sent to New Orleans. He was brought up in late August but didn’t pitch until September. In 7 September appearances, he pitched 6-2/3 innings, 1.35 ERA, 7 strike outs, 2 walks, 1-0. His September inning against the Phillies was 1-2-3. His last Friday night one inning appearance against the Marlins in the series we had to win (but didn’t), was 1-2-3. Jerry Manuel knew he wouldn’t need Figueroa on Saturday because Johan was pitching. Figueroa wasn’t brought in on Sunday to relieve Perez (instead of Schoeneweis) because Manuel would need him for Monday in long relief just in case the Milwaukee game was needed and Pedro left early. (Remember, in April, against a Brewer lineup that was the same in September except for one player, Figueroa retired the first 14 Brewers he faced and his two September outings against Milwaukee were scoreless). Nelson Figueroa is needed for long relief in the 2009 Mets bullpen. The fact that he can pitch in short relief and spot start are bonuses. And he’s 34 not 35.

by hdarvick on Oct 21, 2008 5:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I actually don't completely disagree with this idea

he was fairly decent this year. With a little bit of luck he could possibly replicate the Darren Oliver role from 2006, which is something our pen has desperately been lacking the past 2 years.

by cjmulrain on Oct 21, 2008 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's not make that pedestal too high, OK?

Yes, Figueroa was a useful pitcher for us. But the reason he was sent to NO in May was because the rest of the National League quickly figured out his stuff. He’s not a very good pitcher, period. Figgy, Armas, and Vargas are all essentially the same guy – the journeyman pitcher with mediocre stuff who can start or relieve. I’m not saying we shouldn’t let the guy into camp, but expecting very much from him is wishful thinking. He could be a Darren Oliver, or he could be a Jose Lima. More likely than not, the answer is somewhere in between, but closer to the latter.

Also, the ages are for the players ‘age season’. Figueroa turns 35 in May, so 2009 will be his age 35 season.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 21, 2008 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still think Figueroa could make an effective reliever

Figueroa was an effective pitcher the first time around the order. Look at his splits:

Innings 1-3: .194 /.321/.194/.515
Innings 4-6: 344 /.427/.544/.972

Figgy has a good breaking ball, but the rest of his stuff is not very strong. He doesn’t have the stuff to be an effective starter, but he might be good enough to be a valuable reliever.

by PeterFH on Oct 22, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs