Josh Thole: Revisited

by Sokojoe on Oct 21, 2008 8:52 PM EDT Comment 8 comments

Eric mentioned his other man crush in today's applesauce, Josh Thole. I am also a big fan of Thole. He still has a lot to prove and is in no way a can't miss prospect, but it seems he gets overlooked by Mets fans. I wrote a fanpost about him around midseason concluding with the paragraph:

I don't think Thole cracks the Mets top 10 prospects based on his low ceiling but seriously why is no one and I mean no one talking about this guy? Is there something I'm missing about him? I'm I overrating the whole .257 EqA thing? ...Thole first has to finish out this season playing as well as he has been, but I'm really rooting for this guy to be my next NMPIGWC.

With Eric's mentioning of Thole, I figured I would revisit. Let's see where Thole's numbers ended up:

Triple slash of 300/381/427 808 OPS

45 BBs to 38 Ks

25 Doubles, 5 homers in 347 ABs as compared to 23 Doubles and 2 homers in 590 ABs in his first 3 seasons.

56 RsBI (CLUTCH!)

More importantly, to me anyway, Thole ended up with a .256 Translated EqA. This season the major league average catcher had a translated EqA of .254, for comparisons sake, Brian Schneider had an EqA of .254, Castro .260. As I mentioned in my fanpost, Jesus Flores at the same age, on the same team, had a translated EqA of .250.

Thus, while Thole's offensive numbers don't really jump out at you, he is close to being an average major league catcher right now, offensively anyway. His defense still leaves much to be desired, bp.com had his FRAA at -7 in 70 games which would rank him close to worst in the league when adjusted for playing time, comparable to the worst defensive catchers (according to BPs numbers) Ryan Doumit (-10 in 87,) Josh Bard (-4 in 44,) and, surprise, Jesus Flores (-5 in 76.)

(A brief aside, I’ve compared Thole to Flores twice in this post. This was not intentional, the numbers just point that way, however, if is important to note that there is a fundamental difference between the two. Flores throughout his career has had huge power numbers with low BAs and low plate discipline, obviously the opposite of Thole. Which actually leads to an interesting question of what would you rather have, a huge power guy with hopes that he can become more selective or a batter with a sharp eye with hopes that power will develop?)

Still, this past season was really Thole's first major league season as a catcher and, naturally, faced the growing pains that come with that. His eye at the plate s outstanding and he showed some power at the pitcher friendly confines of St. Lucie. If Thole can learn to become a close to league average defensive catcher, we have ourselves a very useful backup/pinch hitter. If he can achieve the latter while building on his power increase from this year, we're talking starting catcher perhaps as early at 2010, right in time for Schneider's contract to expire.

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I <3 Josh Thole

by Eric Simon on Oct 22, 2008 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thole

He doesn’t sniff their top 20. However, he is the 2nd best catcher in the system behind Francisco Pena. 22 in A+ is very blah, but I could see him being a decent backup and an eventual contributor on the big league roster at a 1/4 of Castro’s price.

Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.blogspot.com

by Baseball Handyman on Oct 23, 2008 3:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Josh Thole

I think you’re being a little hard on Thole with regard to his age. First of all, Thole was 21 for the entirety of 2008, not 22, and in the FSL the average player’s position player’s age is 23—it’s actually a little higher for catchers. There were only four catchers in the league in their age 20 season or younger, and two of them had three starts at the position or less (and a third was a backup).

Not saying Thole’s a legitimate catching prospect or not—I’m notoriously suspicious of catching prospects—just that age isn’t his problem.

by Alex Nelson on Oct 23, 2008 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree/Disagree

I kind of understand what you are saying. Francisco Pena def has a higher ceiling than Thole, but is a long way away. Really, it’s why I have always hated rank list, (Top teams of the 80s, Top Songs by Kraftwerk, etc,) because of the extreme subjectiveness. If you want to rank Pena ahead of Thole based on potential, that’s fine, others might rank Thole ahead of Pena based on current production/level. Really, the point of my post was not to rank anyone, I just wanted to point out to Mets fans that we have a possible backup catcher in farm and with a good AA next year possible starter.

I am curious though, who do you think the top 20 prospects of the Mets are that Thole cannot “sniff”?

by Sokojoe on Oct 24, 2008 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

disagree

i don’t know if he makes the top 20 but he certainly sniffs it. and he would probably make mine, without thinking too hard about it right now. i think he’d fit in nicely around 15-20. and personally i place him above pena. i just have trouble getting behind a future slugging catcher who can’t catch and can’t hit (even though he did make great strides this season with both).

i think the issue for outside observers is what you mentioned, thole isn’t just below the radar, hes below the guys below the radar. IMO its because at 1B with little power, he was nothing and prospect watchers treated him as such…but now that hes a fulltime catcher hes definitely something but people haven’t noticed yet. if he continues his production next year in binghamton he’ll burst onto the prospect scene, especially if his power continues to develop.

as far as his age, i’ve heard that before and i’m not buying it at all. you know who was 21 in the FSL? the all of a sudden second coming lou marson (who thole is VERY similar to). mauer was 21 in A+. russ martin was and so was jesus flores. doumit was 22 in A+. thole is absolutely age appropriate for his league and anyone who thinks hes too old doesn’t understand prospects enough to know that catchers take a little longer to develop than other positional players, thats like common knowledge.

now all we have to do is cross our fingers that he can continue to show more power and obviously become more comfortable behind the plate.

by robcast23 on Oct 25, 2008 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent point,

in regards to age. Perfectly put.

by Sokojoe on Oct 27, 2008 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's top 10 for me

“If Thole can learn to become a close to league average defensive catcher, we have ourselves a very useful backup/pinch hitter”

If he becomes close to average defensively I believe he’ll be in the top half of starting catchers in MLB. I believe his bat is comparable to Murphy’s, having seen them both at St. Lucie over the last 2 seasons.

A few key points:

compare Thole’s line at St. Lucie this year to Murphy or Evans last year, and Thole was younger, and playing a more in demand position.
note that Thole was invited for summer ball, not to the HWL, but to the AFL.
note that Thole, in the AFL, was one of 4 catchers selected for the all-star game.
note that the Mets ended up being the only team with 3 players in the game. They apparently tried to be balanced here, taking 2 from most every team, but had no reason to add that third player unless it was believed to be deserved.
note also that selections were made primarily by MLB minor league farm directors and scouting directors.
And note also that they appear to have been based not so much on performance (Kunz for example made it) but on who the best prospects were.

That said, the critical issue for him is going to be to improve his defense, handling of pitchers, and game calling. If he was really -7 runs per 70 games, that woud be about -15 per 150 games; he would need to hit for about 75 points above average OPS to be an “average” player at that rate.

He has a fair chance to do that though, as I think he should be able to post an .800 OPS in MLB. So I think he will be an above average bat for the position. His offensive ceiling is maybe even a bit lower than Murphy, who is a bit bigger with a bit more natural power. But a similar good approach and line drive stroke. Behind the plate, he moves well and he’s athletic enough that he should be a good fielder, aside from having a below average arm.

Worst case is I think a good offensive backup/platoon guy. For old-timers, maybe similar value to what Mackey Sasser once was. I’d like to see him replace Schneider in 2010, and I’d like to see them find a good defensive CA with a RH bat to split time with him then.

by acerimusdux on Oct 25, 2008 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs