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Around SBN: More Televised Winter Baseball, Please

2009 Bill James Projections: Available Pitchers

The last two days we looked at The Bill James Handbook projections for Mets hitters and pitchers. That's fun and all, but one thing we've had to acknowledge is that any number of those players won't actually be on the Mets next season (I'm looking at you, Marlon Anderson!). So let's have a crack at some players who spent 2008 elsewhere but have varying degrees of likelihood of landing in Queens this offseason.

The Mets may have as many as three rotation spots to fill and as many as two three all of their bullpen spots that need plugging. There are a lot of options out there in both buckets, and the Mets will spend plenty of time this winter trying to make the staff over.

We'll do pitchers today, position players tomorrow. First the starters.

Pitcher Age G IP H HR BB SO BR/9 ERA
A.J. Burnett 32 33 224 199 21 88 218 12.0 3.62
Ryan Dempster 32 30 195 182 16 90 166 12.9 3.89
Jon Garland 29 30 186 203 22 57 93 12.8 4.38
Randy Johnson 45 28 170 153 21 41 178 10.7 3.40
Derek Lowe 36 32 206 205 17 56 132 11.6 3.60
Jake Peavy 28 32 202 173 19 65 202 10.9 3.26
C.C. Sabathia 28 34 240 226 21 70 205 11.4 3.48
Ben Sheets 30 29 186 178 19 41 159 10.7 3.39
Randy Wolf 32 32 195 198 25 70 161 12.8 4.29

Lots of interesting names on this list. I threw Jake Peavy up there just for kicks, even though there's next to zero chance the Mets will trade for him. Still, those numbers are purty, and they're *not* park-adjusted yet.

  • A.J. Burnett is a strikeout machine, but he's 32 and has a history of so-so control and arm trouble. He's a better pitcher than Oliver Perez, for sure, but he's also five years older and will probably make more money per year. The Mets could do worse, but if you're going to spend $16 million a year on Burnett, why not just spend $23 million (or whatever) on C.C. Sabathia?
  • Ryan Dempster was terrific for the Cubs this year, but should we judge him on 207 great innings of 2.96 ERA in 2008 or 1195 career innings of 4.64 ERA as a starter?
  • Jon Garland will only be 29 next year, but he has terrible strikeout marks and isn't even really a groundball pitcher. He has very good control, but is that enough?
  • Perhaps the most interesting name on this list is Randy Johnson, who had outstanding peripherals as a 44-year-old in 2008. We know he had problems in New York when he played with the Yankees, but on a one-year deal he would be a decent risk. I don't think it'll happen because I think the Mets would be gun-shy about his experience in the Bronx, but it would probably work out better than most people suspect.
  • The biggest problem with Derek Lowe -- and it's definitely a problem -- is his age. He's basically been awesome for the Dodgers these past four seasons. He is an extreme groundball pitcher, has good control and strikes out enough batters to keep 'em honest (whatever that means). Are you going to hand out $12 million a year for three years to a 36-year-old? It's a tough sell. I might go for a two-year deal with a team option, though I feel like someone will go to three.
  • Sabathia isn't as good as Peavy, but he's the same age and would cost only money and a first-round pick. He throws a ton of innings, which is both good and bad. He's going to cost Johan Santana money, and while it would be tough to pony up $50 million for two pitchers, imagine running those two out there for two games apiece in the LDS.
  • I'm a huge Ben Sheets fan: He strikes out a lot of batters, he walks very few. He's also had a laundry list of injuries and would be a colossal risk on any deal that wasn't year-to-year.
  • Randy Wolf is a BLAIM (Below League Average Innings Muncher). 200 innings of 4.30 ERA has plenty of value on the open market. Could the Mets do better? Sure. They could also do worse (see: Pedro Martinez circa 2008).

Now the relievers.

Pitcher Age G IP H HR BB SO BR/9 ERA
Kyle Farnsworth 33 53 54 50 8 23 58 12.3 4.15
Brian Fuentes 33 63 62 50 6 25 70 11.6 3.43
Trevor Hoffman 41 42 42 35 4 10 38 9.6 2.94
Brandon Lyon 29 54 55 61 5 15 35 12.6 4.16
Will Ohman 31 79 50 44 4 23 50 12.4 3.69
Arthur Rhodes 39 66 38 34 2 14 39 11.6 3.29
Juan Rincon 30 46 56 55 5 23 50 12.9 4.01
Francisco Rodriguez 27 73 66 47 5 30 85 10.6 2.90
Kerry Wood 32 62 66 53 7 28 74 11.7 3.51

There are more guys than those listed, but this is a pretty good sampling of what's out there. We've got young and old, righty and lefty, closers and middle relief.

  • Everybody hates Kyle Farnsworth, and though he isn't really closer material, he could certainly contribute to a quality bullpen if used appropriately.
  • Brian Fuentes is probably my top choice to close for the Mets next year. His platoon splits are fairly even, despite using a sidearm delivery from the left side that is commonly susceptible to right-handed batters. He'll be 33 next year, but three years of Fuentes seems preferable to six years of Francisco Rodriguez.
  • Trevor Hoffman probably won't ever leave San Diego, but he'd be a decent signing for a year if the Padres committed to rebuilding. He has great control and still strikes out a lot of batters even though his fastball tops out in the mid-to-high eighties.
  • I'm not really a huge Brandon Lyon fan. He's interesting, and has good control, but he's really a bridge guy. Could be useful in mid-to-late innings.
  • Will Ohman stunk for two years in Chicago before turning in a nice season with the Braves last year. The Mets could do worse in the middle innings.
  • Arthur Rhodes is like a hundred years old and he's not so hot against righties, but he dominates lefties like nobody's business. There's probably no room for him if the Mets still have Pedro Feliciano and Scott Schoeneweis, but none of that is set in stone.
  • Juan Rincon used to be a dominant setup man in Minnesota, but then he got busted for steroids and has been mostly terrible the past seasons.
  • Francisco Rodriguez is the prize of the free agent relief market, but I have a hard time dumping six years and $100 million on him. He's not quite as good as his saves record might indicate to someone who actually cares about that sort of thing. He's no better than the fourth-best closer in the AL; is that worth breaking the bank?
  • Kerry Wood is another interesting name. Would come far more cheaply than Rodriguez with comparable peripherals.

We'll do non-Mets batters tomorrow.

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Garland

His IP count seems sort of low he’s went over 200 like 5 or 6 years straight before this season. Even with his meh peripherals if he’ll sign cheaper than the other guys I’ll take his 200 innings and lack of injury worries. If we’re going into next season counting heavily on Maine we’re probably going to need someone else we know will eat a lot of innings. And based on Jeff Wilpon’s interview yesterday I think CC is pretty much out of the question. I don’t think the payroll is going to be much more than it was this year, and going after CC would use up like 2/3 of the money coming off the books.

Also Wolf and Burnett’s IP projection seems super generous.

by Gina on Oct 22, 2008 8:09 AM EDT reply actions  

I missed it

What did Wilpon say yesterday?

by JoshNY on Oct 22, 2008 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wilpon

Random but I keep reading this as saying Wilbon and I spent like 5 minutes trying to figure out why you would ask me, but anyway:

- the current financial crisis will have an impact and discretional spending will likely be down but he doesn’t know how much it will affect it.

- wants to remake the roster through some addition by subtraction

Obviously there was a lot more to the interview but that was just what stuck out to me. Here’s a link to the full interview. For some reason I couldn’t listen in firefox in case you use it.

by Gina on Oct 22, 2008 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

sign Sabathia but NOT Rodreguez

since its not my money, im all for “overpaying” for the BEST players out there. even if beltran is “overpaid” in some people’s opinion, he is well worth it to me because theres no salary cap and i dont care if it costs the wilpons money. castillo is different because youre overpaying for average talent at best.

sabathia is the best arm available (barring a trade for peavy) so if the FO wants to break the bank i am all for it. rodriguez is closer to an average pitcher than he is to an elite one, so theres no point in wasting big bucks on him.

by kendynamo on Oct 22, 2008 10:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Juan Cruz and Dennys Reyes

What does TBJH say about these guys?

Cruz over the past two years has posted K/9 rates of 12.84 and 12.37, but it comes with a BB/9 rate of 4.72 and 5.40. In spite of the high walk rate he has posted LOB% of 74.8 and 83.6 and he is only 30 years old.

Reyes struggled with control in 2007, but was effective in 2006 and 2008. He doesn’t have a high strikeout rate (8.12 career) but he can get ground balls, (56.7% career GB) and strand runners (91.7, 77.3, 87.6 LOB the past three years)

by Reg Dunlop on Oct 22, 2008 10:49 AM EDT reply actions  

Is it just me

or does this system seem to really overrate old players who were dominant in their primes? Pedro, Randy, and Trevor Hoffman all seem to be given the benefit of the doubt by this system, when common sense says that the chances any of them put up those numbers are fairly low next year. I’m not saying they can’t have those types of seasons, but Johnson is gonna be 45 and had a higher WHIP last year than any since 1993, Hoffman is gonna be 41 and while he had a pretty good WHIP and K numbers, he gave up a ton of homers in an extreme pitchers park, and Pedro might as well be turning 50 and is coming off the worst season of his career. Just seems strange to me…

by cjmulrain on Oct 22, 2008 10:58 AM EDT reply actions  

Pedro is the outlier

Hoffman has been mostly outstanding (he was a little off last year, but was dominant as recently as 2007). Randy Johnson was very, very good in 2008, so another strong season isn’t out of the question.

Considering how bad Pedro was last year I think his projection is at least a tad optimistic.

by Eric Simon on Oct 22, 2008 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Peavy

I’m really surprised that a non park adjusted projection system would love Jake Peavy so much. His 2008 road ERA of 4.24 and career road ERA of 3.80 suggest that he benefits a great deal from his home ballpark. I think he is an excellent pitcher but not quite as elite as his reputation.

by DannyMetsGeek on Oct 22, 2008 11:38 AM EDT reply actions  

Give him a little credit

His road ERAs since 2004 have been (home ERA in parens):

2004: 2.33 (2.21)
2005: 2.98 (2.81)
2006: 4.57 (3.75)
2007: 2.57 (2.51)
2008: 4.28 (1.74)

2008 seems to be the outlier here. He was down across the board in 2006, but in every other year since 2004 he has been almost exactly as good (ERA-wise) on the road as he has been at home.

by Eric Simon on Oct 22, 2008 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting

I admittedly only looked at his yearly splits of 2006,2007, and 2008 and his career splits and made a determination that he’s much worse on the road. I tend to not go too far back with pitchers because most pitchers are pretty different than they were 4 years ago, for better or for worse. But this at least gives me hope that he is not largely a product of Petco Park.

by DannyMetsGeek on Oct 22, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sabathia or Peavy

I think I like Sabathia more than Peavy as well. He was dominant down the stretch last year for the Brewers, his style seems to complement NL style as well. Another thing with CC is that he can mash, which doesn’t hurt to have at the bottom of the lineup.

by Fucilli5 on Oct 22, 2008 9:14 PM EDT reply actions  

why aren't more people advocating signing woods?

i think he’d be just as efficient as rodriguez, cost a ton less, and require fewer guaranteed years. is it a sure thing the cubs are going to resign him?

by englishgrey on Oct 23, 2008 2:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Probably because

Most people are assuming the cubs won’t let him hit free agency.

by Gina on Oct 23, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

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