2009 Bill James Projections: Available Hitters
The last three days we looked at The Bill James Handbook projections for Mets hitters and pitchers as well as other pitchers who might be available via trade or free agency. There's nothing new going on until after the World Series anyway, so let's go back to the projection well for another dip.
The Mets don't have nearly as many holes in their lineup as they do in their pitching staff, so there's a much smaller pool, positionally, from which to draw potential acquisitions from. Most of these guys may not even be on the Mets' radar, though most of them have been mentioned at one point or another.
| Hitter | Age | G | AB | HR | RC | Avg | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Abreu | 35 | 159 | 604 | 19 | 107 | 0.286 | 0.389 | 0.455 | 0.844 |
| Rocco Baldelli | 27 | 103 | 312 | 12 | 47 | 0.279 | 0.330 | 0.465 | 0.795 |
| Milton Bradley | 31 | 123 | 442 | 20 | 83 | 0.287 | 0.391 | 0.489 | 0.879 |
| Pat Burrell | 32 | 157 | 537 | 32 | 98 | 0.253 | 0.377 | 0.490 | 0.867 |
| Adam Dunn | 29 | 159 | 562 | 42 | 112 | 0.246 | 0.386 | 0.527 | 0.913 |
| Rafael Furcal | 31 | 119 | 486 | 9 | 71 | 0.286 | 0.354 | 0.409 | 0.763 |
| Brian Giles | 38 | 149 | 579 | 16 | 96 | 0.280 | 0.387 | 0.435 | 0.822 |
| Jose Guillen | 33 | 145 | 557 | 21 | 76 | 0.271 | 0.322 | 0.445 | 0.767 |
| Orlando Hudson | 31 | 140 | 533 | 11 | 78 | 0.283 | 0.353 | 0.420 | 0.773 |
| Raul Ibanez | 37 | 159 | 623 | 22 | 95 | 0.278 | 0.343 | 0.448 | 0.791 |
| Manny Ramirez | 37 | 150 | 552 | 34 | 121 | 0.301 | 0.404 | 0.551 | 0.955 |
| Juan Rivera | 30 | 99 | 317 | 13 | 48 | 0.281 | 0.327 | 0.467 | 0.794 |
| Brian Roberts | 31 | 156 | 623 | 10 | 96 | 0.283 | 0.364 | 0.414 | 0.778 |
| Mark Teixeira | 29 | 154 | 589 | 36 | 129 | 0.299 | 0.397 | 0.559 | 0.956 |
- Bobby Abreu is still a nice hitter. He gets on base, isn't completely useless in the power department. His glove is meh, but his bat would probably be a solid upgrade over Ryan Church (his glove, on the other hand, would be a huge downgrade).
- Rocco Baldelli never really did anything for me. He's got some pop, but his lack of plate discipline drags down his overall value.
- Milton Bradley has a history of personal baggage, but he put things together in 2008 and had himself a brilliant season. His projection is very strong, though a dropoff from this past season's performance. He'll probably look for big money, and the Mets are notoriously averse to public relations question marks, but he'd add another powerful switch-hitting bat to the Mets' lineup.
- Pat Burrell has evolved quite a bit as a hitter over the past few years. His plate discipline has improved substantially and is now one of the better offensive left-fielders in the game. Mets fans might cringe at bringing in an ex-Phillie, but if the Mets want a big right-handed bat, there's always Pat.
- Adam Dunn is a polarizing figure among baseball fans. Flat-earth baseball purists turn away in horror at his low batting averages and high strikeout totals. Baseball neo-analysts point to his prodigious power and impressive walk totals. I count myself among the latter group.
- Rafael Furcal is only really an option as a second-baseman, and I think we went down this road the last time he was a free agent four years ago. The projections aren't terribly optimistic about Furcal's offense, and all indications are that he wants to play shortstop somewhere. Wherever that is, it won't be at
CitiGovernment-Backed Financial Institution Field. - I don't even know why I put Brian Giles on here. I guess because I've been a huge fan of the guy forever. He vetoed a trade to the Red Sox at the end of last season, and will only really be a free agent if the Padres decline his option.
- Jose Guillen's name was pulled from the thin air of writer's block at The Post last week, and while his projection isn't exactly awe-inspiring, it could be decent as a fourth outfielder. Not likely to happen.
- Why does everyone love Orlando Hudson? He'll probably be looking for 5/$55 million or so, which is way too much everything for someone who OPS-ed .718 outside of Arizona last season.
- Raul Ibanez. Bad glove, projected bad bat. Do not want.
- Manny Ramirez is a hitting machine. At 6/$120 million he can go scratch, but three years at similar money will get me to the table.
- How is Juan Rivera only 30? Wasn't he a highly-touted Yankee prospect like 15 years ago? Another decent bench option here, nothing more, nothing less.
- BJH doesn't think much of Brian Roberts. I do, but not at whatever exorbitant price tag the Orioles will slap on him this winter.
- Mark Teixeira is the biggest name on the free agent market this year. For good reason: The guy is a terrific hitter and an exemplary fielder at first. The Mets are going to pick up Carlos Delgado's option so Teix doesn't really fit into the plans.
That's it. I think I've milked these projections dry. I promise something new and exciting tomorrow.
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19 comments
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Comments
Juan Rivera
That ops would be a huge improvement over his current numbers. I wonder how much his asking price would be because I would love to add him to our bench.
Also I love love love Adam Dunn & his bat, but his defense is horrendous. Maybe a one year deal would be okay but I can’t think it would be a smart investment for any NL team to give him a long-term contract. Especially since, from what I understand, he’s not projected to age well offensively.
I don’t get the love for Hudson either, especially consider his age and the fact he’s had surgery on the same wrist two years in a row. But for some reason I’m convinced he’s going to end up a Met.
by Gina on Oct 23, 2008 9:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dunn Dunn Dunn
I’ve always been in the former group with Dunn. This year I flipped back and forth and actually got to watch him in person in AZ. I’ve figured out my problem with him, I think. In a perfect world, you want a guy with a huge OBP to have some wheels so you can bat him up in the line-up (2nd). OR, you want a guy who bats 5th to make a lot of contact to drive in runs (this one is less common I feel, since 5 hitters generally will do some striking out). Dunn is just a weird guy. And as Gina mentioned, I can’t see that lumbering physique manning the OF much longer.
I’ve cooled on hudson as well. It’s safer just to assume Luis Castillo will be our 2B on opening day. It’s just hard to deal crap like that.
And no way the Mets should get manny if he really expects more than 3 years. Someone will give it to him, I guess. It better not be us.
by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Oct 23, 2008 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
oh
I’m not saying that those assumptions I make about Dunn and his place in a line-up are correct, it’s just the ingrained baseball visualization I have of every spot in the order. Sometimes those are stronger than the truth.
by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Oct 23, 2008 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want Dunn
I wasn’t sure; maybe it’s those projections and the fact that he’s only 29 that talked me into it. He’s going to cost less than Teixeira because so many baseball executives are flat-earthers (to use Eric’s term) and he’s way younger than Manny (and not a headache). He’s not an injury question mark. His OBP of .386 (the same over the last two seasons) would’ve just trailed Wright for the best on the team; his SLG of .518 was just a shade less than Delgado. Imagine our lineup with another Carlos Delgado (but with better plate patience) added to it.
His defense… it’s not ideal, no. But we’ve gotten by with Beltran covering for defensive liabilities in LF in the past and I think we could do it for another few years.
And yes, I know the lineup isn’t our biggest area of need, but I’d still make this move.
by JoshNY on Oct 23, 2008 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you
Of all the players on that list, I think Dunn is the best (with the right contract, of course.)
"The people of Houston are spending money like oil's selling at $40 a barrel."
by IanB in MD on Oct 23, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn
For the right contract I would love to add Dunn. Especially if he could take over 1b once Delgado left, although I’ve heard his first base defense is worse than his outfield defense. But based on what was said about our interest in Dunn around the trade deadline, which basically was we had no interest in him and our front office just plain didn’t like him, I don’t see it happening.
by Gina on Oct 23, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Big Money for Good But Not Awesome Players
During last off season, I read that the MLB.com share per-team was $30 million. I can only assume that I will be close to or higher this off-season. With ticket sales up and a MLB Network coming around the corner, plenty of teams are gonna be flush with cash. As a result, players like Hudson can expect 5/55 and Manny can demand 6/120. There will be teams willing to pay that kind of scratch.
I just hope the Mets don’t get too caught up when signing a big bat. With Shea Stadium gone, I should think Pat Burrell may be powerless but it might be nice to have him in the line up.
Living in Baltimore I get plenty of opportunities to see Brian Roberts play, and it would have been nice if the Mets had traded for him, but I would not like to see them shell out big dollars. That would be sad.
"The people of Houston are spending money like oil's selling at $40 a barrel."
by IanB in MD on Oct 23, 2008 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
mytwo cents
Milton Bradley:I mentioned him mid season and did not get a lot of love from the group for doing so. But I bring him up again. I still am not sure he would be all that expensive and those numbers do look nice even with the drop-off. Not sure about his defense.
Manny:If it took a fourth year to get Manny, i’d do it. no more though.
Orlando Hudson:overrated and a injury concern. What about Grudzulanik(spelling?) from KC?
Baldelli: would be at least a very good bench/platoon player no?
Teixeria:It really is a shame that the best free agent out there is at 1B. At this point the Mets seem committed to bringing Delgado back and he will take offense if the Mets even flirt with anyone else. But in many ways, signing Teixeria makes the most sense. It also keeps him away from other NL teams. Sign him, trade Carlos and sign either Bradley or Dunn or whomever. I think that makes sense from a baseball point of view but may not be “politically correct” so to speak.
by Endys Game on Oct 23, 2008 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Grudzielanek
I could swear he will be like 62 next year. He’s not great at this stage in his career but I suppose could at least potentially be more useful than Marlon Anderson.
by JoshNY on Oct 23, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would love
to see them bring in either Burrell or Dunn and try to swing a trade for Brian Roberts. I don’t know what the O’s are asking, but if it’s not exorbitant I’d do it. His homer numbers have gone down, but he hit 51 doubles last year, walks a ton, steals a lot of bases, and to the best of my knowledge is a good fielder. Plus, if they get him, maybe they could trade Castillo straight up for Eric Byrnes (if that was a real proposal) to be the 4th outfielder. I think that’s a solid upgrade for the offense for a lot cheaper than what many are suggesting (Manny/Teix, etc.), and then they can focus on the pitching.
by cjmulrain on Oct 23, 2008 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
wouldn't mind seeing us get roberts
and batting him leadoff. have reyes hit second. replacing the castillo/ouranus/easley platoon with roberts’ numbers would make our already potent offense even better.
roberts wasn’t in the top or the bottom of 2nd basemen in +/-, but middle of the pack would be an upgrade over last year.
by gogomets on Oct 23, 2008 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Byrnes
Not bad as a 4th outfielder, I just wasn’t crazy about him as an everyday player.
by JoshNY on Oct 23, 2008 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
when I heard that trade proposal I never thought of him as anything more than a platoon guy, which is why I wasn’t against it. That’s why I’d like to see them sign a Dunn or a Burrell first, so they’re not tempted to slot Byrnes as the starter if they make that move.
by cjmulrain on Oct 24, 2008 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of GSE Field..
What would happen if a field were named after a bank that ceased to exist after the fallout from the housing fiasco is over?
I will not allow the denigration of the life essence
by GenJackRipper on Oct 23, 2008 2:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If Citi fails
I think the Wilbons will change the name to “Brooklyn Dodgers Memorial Park”
"The people of Houston are spending money like oil's selling at $40 a barrel."
by IanB in MD on Oct 23, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heh
now you’re saying “Wilbon.” Maybe this is an emerging meme?
'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 23, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
they'd rename it
Ever heard of Enron Field?
by cjmulrain on Oct 23, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs























