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Around SBN: Miikka Kiprusoff Wins 300th Game, Buffalo Crushes Boston

Fish, Barrel, Shoot: Fun with the mets.com Mailbag

I  have a very low tolerance for the utterance of stupidity. Therefore, I tend to avoid listening to WFAN for anything other than game broadcasts and never turn on my TV for a night game before 6:30 lest the final moments of Loud Mouths induce an urge to fling my remote at the screen. There is one exception to this rule, however: the (usually) weekly mailbag column on mets.com, a mixture of often absurd questions from Mets fans, answered in often equally absurd fashion by friendly neighborhood beat writer Marty Noble. It's the gift that keeps on giving, providing a number-happy, snarky Mets fan with the material to indulge her most Fire Joe Morgan-esque impulses. Follow along with this week's mailbag as I poke some fun at the contents:

The first question is from a reader who wasn't happy with Marty naming David Wright as the Mets' most valuable player. Noble starts off with a fairly reasonable defense, reminding us that having a bad batting average with runners in scoring position this year does not negate Wright being really, really good at baseball. But then he takes it a bit too far:

The MVP ballots distributed to the 60 voting members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America include few instructions, but they do urge the constituency to consider the numbers of games played by candidates. Wright played in 160, Santana made 34 starts.

This is the sort of argument that's usually advanced to justify excluding pitchers from MVP consideration, and quite frankly it's a load of bull. If you think of baseball as a series of pitcher/batter confrontations, it stands to reason that the more showdowns a player participates in, the more opportunities he has to impact the outcome of a game. In 2008, David Wright had 736 plate appearances. Johan Santana faced 964 batters.

There's a reason so few starters win MVP Awards, or even place among the leading candidates.

...

And by the way, when Santana was elected unanimously as the American League Cy Young Award winner in 2006, he placed seventh in the MVP balloting, one place behind teammate Joe Mauer, and well behind MVP Justin Morneau, also a teammate.

There's a message in that.

That message has nothing to do with whether a player is deserving of MVP consideration and everything to do with how those who get to vote see things. (Also, if one wishes to argue for the wisdom of those who cast MVP ballots, referencing the year that Morneau won despite having two clearly superior teammates probably isn't the best example to use.)

Later on, there's a question about the coaching staff:

Who do you think will round out the coaching staff for 2009? It's important to bring in more qualified people. Luis Aguaya did a bad job. Some others I would like to see get a chance would be Gary Carter, Wally Bachman or maybe Bobby Valentine -- still one of the best baseball minds -- as a bench coach.
-- Stephen W., Poughkeepsie, N.Y.

I'm not sure what's funnier: the misspellings of Aguayo and Backman or the idea of Bobby V. returning to the Mets as a bench coach, something that seems about as likely as a snowball fight in hell.

Another reader asks Marty for his take on the "Ryan Church doesn't like playing in New York" rumor, and I'm still trying to figure out what Noble means by

In a word, no. If I he was uncomfortable, he performed quite well before the second concussion.

Finally, we have our Reality-Challenged Trade Proposal of the Week:

I would like the Mets to forget about Carlos Delgado (old and better-suited for the AL) and Oliver Perez (not worth the money he will demand). I'd prefer they pursue Mark Teixeira as a free agent and a trade for Jake Peavy. The money would be better spent for a younger, switch-hitting first baseman, and since the Padres are shopping Peavy, who likes the NL, why not take a shot?
-- Shawn, Albany, N.Y.

There's no way that the Mets can acquire Peavy without doing something utterly stupid and self-destructive, so naturally we'll be hearing plenty of rumors about him all winter.

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The batters faced

argument is interesting, I’ve never heard it before, but I don’t really buy it. The fact is a teams goal is to win as many games as possible, not get on base the most often or get the most batters out. Those things help win games, but at the end of the day you need to end up with more wins than your opponent. Johan only pitched 1/5 of the teams games. Wright played in 99% of them. While it’s true that Johan had more of an impact in his 34 games than Wright did, they still needed to play well in the other 128 games of the season.

Johan was fantastic this year, but I don’t think he was dominant enough to be the team MVP over a guy who played in 160 games and was responsible for 11 more runs than anyone else. That said, I actually think Beltran should get the MVP Award. He played in 161 games, was responsible for the second most runs on offense, and held together a shaky outfield with fantastic defense all season (who knows how many runs he saved). He also had a fantastic stolen base rate, yet again (25-3).

For the record, I’m not opposed to giving the MVP Award to pitchers, but I think they need to have a historically dominant type season (Pedro in ‘99, Maddux in ’95, Koufax in, well, every year from ’63-’67, etc.) I’m still angry at that jackhole who refused to put Pedro on his ballot and cost him the MVP Award. I’m even more pissed that it went to Pudge Rodriguez, which you just know is gonna be used by morons in the future to “prove” that he was better than Piazza. Ugh…I hate that little overrated steroided freak.

by cjmulrain on Oct 24, 2008 8:38 AM EDT reply actions  

Beltran should get the TEAM MVP Award

not THE MVP Award. Don’t want any confusion. If it doesn’t go to Pujols, I’m never watching baseball again.

by cjmulrain on Oct 24, 2008 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

While it's certainly true that the team's goal is to win as many games as possible...

and that a position player plays in more games, I think Jessica’s point (sorry if I’m putting words in your mouth) is that a starter (one who works as deep into games as Santana, at least) has a significantly greater impact on each of the games that he starts than a position player does. The greater number of plate appearances is indicative of this.

I guess there must be stats that estimate how many runs a player is worth over the course of a season, and accordingly over the course of a game. If (hypothetically; these numbers are made up) Santana plays in 1/5 as many games, but is worth eight times as many runs per game in which he appears, doesn’t that make him “more valuable”?

Let’s say Luis Castillo was healthy all year and played 155 games and did so as (per the Beyond the Boxscore analysis) one of the worst 2Bs in the league. Is he still automatically more valuable because he played just about every day? Of course not, because he sucks. On the other hand, Carlos Beltran was (again per BTB) the second best CF in MLB this year; maybe his contributions, coupled with the fact that he played 161 games, make him more valuable. (I think they do, but I’m an unabashed Voltron fan.) Surely there must be some point along the spectrum from Beltran to Castillo where an SP’s contributions start to outweigh an everyday player’s contributions, right?

by JoshNY on Oct 24, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh

I absolutely agree that starting pitchers have way more of an impact on the particular game they are starting than any single hitter. But the fact is, even if the Mets went 35-0 in Johan’s starts, they still would have had to win 59 games that he wasn’t a part of to beat the Phillies (I think, I’m too lazy to check exactly how many games the Phillies won.) And, even if Johan went and pitched 35 no-hitters, he still needs one of the offensive players to drive in some runs (unless he did it himself, but that would just be unrealistic!)

I just can’t see giving an MVP Award to a guy who had NO impact on 80% of a teams games, unless he was so unbelievably dominant in his 30+ starts that nobody had close to his level of impact. Johan, great as he was this year, wasn’t quite that good.

by cjmulrain on Oct 25, 2008 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

On a semi-related note

and sorry for taking over this thread, but I have a paper due in a few hours, so I’m procrastinating finishing by posting here, but:

looking at the games played numbers from this past season is pretty damn depressing. Delgado – 159, Beltran – 161, Reyes – 159, Wright – 160. A combined 9 missed games from the “big 4” and they still couldn’t win the division/make the playoffs. Plus Santana made every start this year. What are the odds that they’ll be that lucky again next year? God I hate that bullpen…

by cjmulrain on Oct 24, 2008 8:44 AM EDT reply actions  

Wow

That really *was* like shooting fish in a barrel.

In a word, no. If I he was uncomfortable, he performed quite well before the second concussion.

I think Marty Noble and Eddie Kunz use the same editor.

by Eric Simon on Oct 24, 2008 10:34 AM EDT reply actions  

Well done Jessica

The best way to mock Marty Noble is to simply copy and paste his own work. Outstanding.

by Sokojoe on Oct 24, 2008 11:01 AM EDT reply actions  

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