when do u guys want me to close the poll

How did he end up doing at Brooklyn? He was hurt the one game I went to, but luckily got to see Ike strike out twice and bounce into a DP. Great first pick there, Omar.

1.F!-He performed just well enough in AA not to drop to #2 or lower. You
       can’t ignore his Herculean performance in A-ball at age 17; neither can you ignore
       the fact that he hasn’t really dominated or stayed healthy since, nor has he the ever
       really shown good plate discipline or the ability to hit lefties. He remains on top pretty
       much because of a strong improvement in his slugging and because he is still very
       advanced for his age, but the time to put up or shut up is coming.
2.Evans-He’s young, he dominated AA, and he crushed lefties in the MLB, and I place a
              lot of value in high level performance, and MLB performance in particular.
3.Niese
4.Wilmer-He is probably overhyped by everybody, including myself. He dominated the
                GCL and had a hot start in Kingsport, from which he quickly regressed, only to
                level off in Brooklyn. Then again, he was freakin’ 16 for most of the year,
                which is why he’s #4 despite being in low A. But for now, that’s more than
                enough.
5.Holt
6.Thole
7.Gee
8-12 I consider a 5 way tie
Carp
Kunz
Parnell
Mejia
.Marte
13.Moviel-Still projects to add velocity and good rebound after poor 2008 start.
14.Rustich-Getting a bit old
15.Havens
16.Holdzcom
17.Davis
18.Tejada
19.Peña
20.Antonini

1. Martinez- I want to demote him badly
2. Flores
3. Evans
4. Niese
5. Holt
6. Evans
7. Carp
8. Thole
9. Gee
10. Parnell
11. Rustich
12. Kunz
13. Marte
14. Davis
15. Moviel
16. Mejia
17. Tejada
18. Peña

IMO hes getting ready to shoot up these lists. i think he profiles as our closer of the future and by this time next year i think hes in the #1 spot above fernando.

let him keep working on his curve as it seems like suddenly hes starting to figure it out and it flashes plus potential and if the changeup is even average then maybe we’ve got another john maine on our hands. but if he has trouble with the secondary stuff i’d love to see someone teach this kid a splitter and let him dominate the 9th.

which makes me wonder, how come there is no presence of this pitch anywhere in the mets organization? i’ve wondered this before and i don’t remember any mets pitcher in the past 3-4 years with a splitter/cutter. do they not teach it? if so why not? is it just random that our draft picks haven’t throw it? or am i just making something out of nothing?

The splitter isn’t taught very often these days because it’s considered a risk for arm injury. The few who throw it throw it as a third or fourth pitch.

As for the cutter, not many pitchers come up throwing cutters frequently. It tends to be something you turn to more and more as you lose velocity in old age. Some guys just have great ones (Mariano Rivera and Al Leiter for example) that can be used as out pitches, but more often than not it’s a replacement for a fastball that just isn’t there anymore.

I’m going to break it up into four different groups, and just for fun, give a little blurb on each (I always prefer seeing other people’s reasoning, so here’s mine).

Group 1(#1-#5) – The Cream:

1. Fernando Martinez, OF

I’m still a big Fernando fan, he just needs to keep himself on the field. He showed nice improvements over the course of the year, which is what I was looking for more than anything. He struck out less and walked more as the season wore on. If he can do that, I bet we see the power start to blossom quickly. He’s closer to ready than most 19 year olds, but he’s not as ready as a lot of us might wish he was. The athleticism is still there, and I sense that reports that he’ll be moving to a corner have more to do with Carlos Beltran’s superior defense than any particular problems Martinez might have range-wise.

2. Jonathan Niese, LHP

Niese’s placement at #2 speaks as much to the Mets lack of upper level talent as it does to his own ability. He gets the nod over the younger Holt as the Mets top pitching prospect because he’s closer to the bigs, but he lacks Holt’s upside. What he does have is a legit lefty curve and a good changeup to match his average fastball. If he learns to mix his pitches better, that should be more than enough to be a solid starter. But while he took great strides in 2008, its something he’s still learning, and without the great heater its an important, delicate, and necessary process if he wants to get big league hitters out two or three times a start.

3. Nick Evans, 1B/LF

Evans could be a solid 20-30 HR bat at some point, a useful player who will likely have a handful of good years, but like Niese he lacks upside. His tool is his bat, and he’ll be limited defensively to positions that demand his power potential develops fast. He’s a good counterpart to Murphy, and while he has more power projection, his pitch selection and approach are what held him back by comparison and allowed Murphy to pull ahead of him and shed his rookie status.

4. Brad Holt, RHP

Holt really came on strong at the end of his college career and was awesome for Brooklyn. The day before he was drafted, he threw 149 pitches for UNC-Wilmington and was clocked at 94 mph in the 9th, and I’ve heard some rumbling that he touched triple digits in Brooklyn. The best news is that his breaking ball is developing so well though. There’s still some concern regarding command, and he’ll need to continue working on the curve and change. The sky is the limit, but we should all temper our expectations. Its nice to dominate SS-A ball, but all he needed for that was his heat. The good reports on the curve are encouraging, but full season ball will be a really big test for Holt. As much as Fernando has to lose if he fails to produce again, Holt as that much and more to gain if he succeeds.

5. Wilmer Flores, SS

Wow!! What sick numbers for a 16 year old!!! Lets not get too crazy though. Like with Holt in SS-A, its nice to tear up a Rookie league, especially at such a young age, but he’s so far away we really shouldn’t get too excited. Its obviously not meaningless, but it would have meant a lot more if Fernando had put up Wilmer’s line in AA. Lets not forget that Fernando also put up a .333 / .389 / .505 line in 211 Appy league PAs at 17. Still, there is more to like about what Flores did than what F-Mart did in the Appy league. First of all, Flores was a bit younger. Second, he did it playing a more difficult defensive position. Third, he struck out only 28 times in 265 PAs. F-Mart struck out 36 times in those 211 PAs. And fourth, F-Mart had an inflated .391 BABIP. Flores’ BABIP was .325, a number much closer to sustainable.

There’s a pretty big dropoff after these five, and despite being a great overall mix of a few advanced players and some great upside, its one of the weaker top 5s in baseball. Holt and Flores both have high ceilings, but they have a lot left to establish before they become top prospects. Unless he tears his way through full season A-ball and then St. Lucie in 2009, it will likely still be a little while for Flores. Holt’s older and may come a bit faster. Full season success is all that’s between him and becoming a better prospect than anyone on this list currently is, but that’s hardly a lock.

The second group – (#6-#8) The Not Quite Top Prospects :

6. Bobby Parnell, RHP

Parnell has a big league heater. Its not Mike Pelfrey’s sinker, but its a good fastball. The thing is, he’s 24 now and hit a wall as he got to the higher levels. He got off to a nice start last year in St. Lucie, but when he got to Binghamton the Ks dropped, and he wasn’t so young that he deserves a ton of mulligans. Its time to move him to the bullpen and see how that goes. He has the heater, but it doesn’t look like he’ll ever be more than a AAA starter. In the pen, he has some late inning big league potential, but I want to see how the transition goes before I judge.

7. Mike Carp, 1B

The bat came back to life after an awful 2007. He struck out less than ever and walked more. Still, the struggles with lefties remained, and finding him a position is still a problem. The good news is the poor 2007 seems to have more to do with injury than anything else, and outside of that, his bat has developed nicely. The bad news is, it doesn’t look like he’ll get a chance with the Mets. He’s still behind Murphy and Evans on the pecking order and he’s always been prone to streakiness and inconsistency. Combine that with the lack of a viable position, and he still looks like trade bait for a small market AL club looking for a power hitting DH. Its nice to have hitting potential, but when you’re already slated for DH and you haven’t even cracked AAA yet, you damn well better realize it to have a successful big league career.

8. Jefrey Marte, 3B

You may be wondering why there’s such a big difference in ranking between Marte and Flores almost universally. In a sense, perhaps there shouldn’t be, and were they older and in a full season league, there likely wouldn’t be. Marte hit .325 / .377 / .532 in the GCL. There are some key differences though. First and most obvious, the GCL is an easier league. In addition, Flores played a more difficult position. Still, this isn’t particularly significant, Miguel Cabrera was also a SS when he was playing rookie ball. However, Marte also struck out more, enough to consider it a slight knock on his game by comparison. More importantly though, he had an inflated BABIP: .383. Flores’ was a much more reasonable .325. Still, Marte’s power projection is undeniable, perhaps higher than Flores’. As much as is possible with a teenage duo (and its not much, but its a fun thought) Flores and Marte could give the Mets a tough decision when Wright and Reyes’ options come up, but that’s a long, long way (and hopefully lots of XBH, SB, and web gems) away.

After these three, the lines blur a bit and I could probably rearrange guys within their groups and still be satisfied with how the list looks. I’m not sold on any of these guys as big prospects, but they all have that kind of potential, albiet with some sort of major question that needs answering.

Group 3 – (#9-#16) On the Bubble

9. Eddie Kunz, RHP

I almost dropped him lower despite his success in AA and reaching the majors. Reports that he might not be as great a “fast track” candidate as we all thought seemed accurate. He seemed overwhelmed on the MLB mound and his body language, while not Jorge Sosa bad, wasn’t pretty. His fastball is a nice pitch, but its not going to miss enough bats alone to make him a closer, and anything to back it up seems to be very much a work in progress. I just can’t rank a relief prospect that’s not a closer in waiting that highly.

10. Josh Thole, C

Lefty hitting catcher who doesn’t K much. The stick really started to come around in 2008, and he’s even flashing a bit of power potential. Can he stick at the position? If he does stick and the bat continues to develop I could see anything from a decent MLB backup to a left-handed version of Paul LoDuca.

11. Shawn Bowman, 3B

A great story. After years of back problems, Bowman finally had a healthy season and put up solid numbers at St. Lucie. He was known as a good glove man at 3B with power potential before the injuries. The problems may have taken away some mobility, but the hitting potential may be intact. He still has some problems drawing a walk, and he’ll be forced to adjust if he wants to succeed at AA, but if he manages he could develop into a more versatile version of Nick Evans.

12. Reese Havens, SS

I liked this pick a lot in the draft. Its hard to really judge a player who hasn’t played the field yet, but if Havens gets healthy, I could see him moving fast. He’s praised for his approach at the plate and his baseball intellect, and despite the .247 BA he still put up an .811 OPS while trying to battle injuries.

13. Ike Davis 1B/OF

The other early round disappointment from the 2008 draft, I’m not quite as fond of Davis as Havens, but its pretty clear his debut undersold his potential. A more athletic and defensively versatile player than Carp, any kind of bounceback might shoot Davis past him on the depth chart.

14. Brant Rustich, RHP

Scouts love the stuff, but there have always been doubts about his durability. He got past his coliegate struggles this year and put up solid numbers in the Sally league, but he didn’t get past the injury issues, dealing with problems all year before seeing his season end to a stress fracture in his pitching arm. Its not a torn labrum, but its not a great sign. Still, if he did manage to stay healthy he could move quickly, especially if he went to the pen, and could be a nice sleeper next year.

15. Jenry Mejia, RHP

A big time live fastball on a small right handed arm out of the Dominican Republic, Mejia was the other pitcher to watch in Brooklyn this past year. He put up outstanding numbers (2.91 ERA in 71 IP with a 67/26 K/BB between GCL and Brooklyn) and he’s only 18, but he’s only listed at 6’0" and has a complicated and violent delivery. In one sense, he’s very much a project, but he could also develop into a top prospect quickly. A year ago today, even before the Santana trade, he would have probably cracked the Mets top ten, which highlights how well the Mets system has filled out despite a what it may lack in the way of high end talent at the top.

16. Ruben Tejada, SS

This was such a bad rush job by the Mets F.O. its very difficult to know what we have here. He ultimately could be more organizational fodder for the high end of the system, but a solid middle infielder isn’t out of the question yet. Still, he’s a great example of how misleading Rookie league stats can be.

After these guys, there are really about 10-15 guys who could have fit into the last few spots and I wouldn’t have a gripe. These are the ones I pick, but I could easily see arguments for others, some of whom I’ll list afterwards. This is mostly low ceiling talents or very raw high ceiling prospects.

Group #4 – (#17-#20) The Rest:

17. Dillon Gee, RHP

A pitchability righty who offers little in the way of projection, but he already offers just enough combination of stuff and command to demand attention as a potential future back end starter. He’s made it to AA in 2008 and pitched well in a small sample. Watch out for a number of similar arms to emerge from the 2008 draft as well.

18. Tobi Stoner, RHP

Interesting arm with average stuff who could be a sleeper for the big league pen in 2009. His stuff is underwhelming, but he’s a decent pitchability guy and could prove useful sooner rather than later.

19. Scott Moviel, RHP

The big righty is more projection that production at this point, but that’s often the case with big pitchers like this early in their careers. His ceiling is high, making him the exception among pitchers on this part of the list, but he has a long way to go before he starts to realize it.

20. Cesar Puello, OF

He didn’t put up the power numbers of Flores or Marte, but he quietly also had a very nice year in the rookie leagues as a teenager. He hit .305 / .350/ .364. He’s pretty raw, but his tools rate as average or better across the board.

Also possibilities for the last group here: RHP Dylan Owen, Scott Shaw (Big time sleeper for a late round pick IMO, just couldn’t quite pull the trigger on top 20 yet), Kyle Allen, Eric Beaulac, and Junior Guerra; LHP Michael Antonini; C Fransisco Pena and Dock Doyle, OF Ezequiel Carrera, Javier Rodriguez, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis; IF Greg Veloz, Zach Lutz, and Josh Satin; and I’m sure handful of others I’m not thinking of at the moment.