Evaluating the middle relief options

While most of the MSM will be looking at big ticket starters and a closer to replace Billy Wagner, the Mets achillies heel this year was clearly middle relief. Middle releif is probably the most difficult area to evaluate because of the small sample size and high visability nature of the job. Traditional metrics like W-L and ERA will flucuate wildy from year to year, so giving a big contract to a pitcher who had "good year" is usually a losing proposition. K rate, BB, rate, GB%, LOB%, and HR rate are better ways to structure middle relief. But with the lack of power arms in the Mets organization, they are more likely to fill slots via free agency.

Assuming the Mets will carry 12 pitchers, there are six middle relief slots available. I will assume that nobody will be traded or released. The Mets have two LOOGY's in Feliciano and Schoeneweis, and a ROOGY in Joe Smith. Sanchez and Heilman are both under control as all purpose relievers. That leaves one slot to fill either with an internal option, or through free agency.

Internal options:

Brian Stokes: His 7.02 K/9, 2.16 BB/9, and 83% LOB% in 33 IP with the Mets were significantly better than his previous MLB totals. Because of his ability to start he could function as both a long reliever and a short man. Manuel seemed to trust him down the stretch, but his relative success this year could be an aberration. Verdict: Minor League Contract

Luis Ayala: If the Mets sign a closer, and re-sign Ayala, he could return to his more traditional set up role. Ayala has been considered an effective set up man through out his career but he struggled in his first full season since coming back from surgery in 2006. However his career strikeout rate (5.83/9) and his career LD% (21%) point to signs of a pitcher who has been more lucky then good. Verdict: Pass

Brandon Knight: In 10 minor league seasons (1254 IP) he struck out 1133 batters and walked 438. He had 10K and 7BB in limited work in the majors this year. At best he would be a cheap long reliever. Verdict: Minor League Contract

Eddie Kunz: His minor league K/9 rate of 7.9 and BB/9 rate of 4.7 does not inspire confidence. (In me at lest) He is an extreme ground ball pitcher who gave up a home run in his 2.2 innings of MLB work. A fluke? Or a sign that he doesn't have the stuff to be effective at the Major League level? There has to be a GM out there who thinks his ability to accumulate saves at the college and AA level is worth something. Verdict: Trade Bait  

Free Agent options:

There is not a whole lot out there to get excited about. But a couple of names aroused my interest.

Kyle Farnsworth: One of the biggest names on the list. Don't let Yankees fan fool you. He is a good pitcher. In 2008 he posted a 9.1 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, and LOB% of 84.7% after posting K/9 rates over 10 in three of the previous four seasons. He was victimized by the long ball (2.24/9) and by a high BABIP (.335). Because of his baggage in New York he could end up being a media whipping boy if he fails. Verdict: Worth a reasonable contract

Bobby Howry: A contact pitcher who seemed to run into some bad luck this year to the tune of a .354 BABIP. He doesn't have high K rate (7.75/9 career) but he also doesn't walk too many. (2 or under/9 the last 4 years) He also has career LOB% of 75%. Verdict: If all else fails

Dennys Reyes: Another player who has been considered an effective set up man over the past few years. He struggled with control in 2007, but was effective in 2006 and 2008. He doesn't have a high strikeout rate (8.12 career) but he can get ground balls, (56.7% career GB%) and strand runners (91.7, 77.3, 87.6 LOB% the past three years). Plus he would fit in with Omar's plans to acquire players named Reyes. Verdict: Worth a reasonable contract

Arthur Rhodes: He's old, but he's still good for a strikeout an inning. His work load would have to be limited. Verdict: A last resort

Darren Oliver: He did a fine job for the Mets in 2006 and has been a reliable long reliever for the Angels. But the Mets need short relief and have other internal options for a long reliever. Verdict: Pass

Guillermo Mota: J/K. (Please don't ban me for mentioning his name) Verdict: Torture

Matt Wise: Oh yea. We tried that already. Verdict: Minor League Contract or Pass

Juan Cruz: This guy intregues me. As a releiver for Arizona the past two years he has posted K/9 rates of 12.84 and 12.37. Unfortunately he has a BB/9 rate of 4.72 and 5.40. In spite of the high walk rate he has posted LOB% of 74.8 and 83.6. He is only 30 years old. This seems like the type of high risk, high reward pitcher the Mets have lacked and he might be under the radar enough to be a low risk signing. Verdict: Take a chance