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2008 Mets Post-Mortem: The Cost Of Injuries

If you want to know how a team with a $138 million payroll can miss the playoffs, take a gander at the lineup. Not that one. I mean the one in queue outside the trainer's room. Injuries are a part of the game, and some players certainly carry higher risks of injury than others. Older players and players with prior health problems are obvious candidates for a trip or two to the disabled list. Especially high-risk individuals are those injury double-threats: Aging players who have a laundry list of past ailments and afflictions (see: Alou, Moises).

Every team suffers its share of games lost to the disabled list. The Yankees had Jorge Posada, Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain all spend time on the shelf; the Red Sox missed David Ortiz, Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling for varying lengths of time; the Braves missed Chipper Jones, Tim Hudson, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine at one point or another, so the Mets clearly aren't on an island with respect to busted goods.

I wanted to know exactly how many man-games the Mets lost due to injury this season. So, armed with their transaction ledger, salary data, schedule and my trusty spreadsheet, I had a look-see at how many games individual Mets players missed while on the disabled list. A few caveats:

  • I only counted time on the disabled list; missed games while injured but on the active roster were not counted.
  • I guesstimated slightly with respect to the day a player went on/came off the disabled list. As a rule, and to be conservative, I counted both days as days on the active roster (i.e. *not* disabled list days).
  • For the sake of simplicity, I counted pitcher missed days the same as hitter missed days. I figured it wasn't worth the added complexity of figuring out missed starts, etc., so all team games were treated equally.
  • I didn't include Tony Armas's or Trot Nixon's missed days because #$%^ 'em, that's why.

Having said that, here are the results:

Player 2008 Salary Salary/Game Missed Games Salary Missed
Moises Alou $7,500,000.00 $46,296.30 139.00 $6,435,185.19
Marlon Anderson $1,050,000.00 $6,481.48 42.00 $272,222.22
Luis Castillo $6,250,000.00 $38,580.25 65.00 $2,507,716.05
Ramon Castro $1,975,000.00 $12,191.36 32.00 $390,123.46
Ryan Church $2,000,000.00 $12,345.68 56.00 $691,358.02
Orlando Hernandez $7,000,000.00 $43,209.88 162.00 $7,000,000.00
John Maine $450,000.00 $2,777.78 34.00 $94,444.44
Pedro Martinez $11,813,351.00 $72,921.92 54.00 $3,937,783.67
Angel Pagan $401,500.00 $2,478.40 125.00 $309,799.38
Duaner Sanchez $850,000.00 $5,246.91 11.00 $57,716.05
Billy Wagner $10,500,000.00 $64,814.81 49.00 $3,175,925.93
Matt Wise $1,200,000.00 $7,407.41 147.00 $1,088,888.89
TOTAL $50,989,851.00 $26,229.35 916.00 $25,961,163.30

Nine-hundred and sixteen missed games at an average cost-per-game of $26,229.35 for a grand total of $25,961,163.30 of lost wages due to injury. That's almost $26 million, which will pay for C.C. Sabathia's 2009 salary, among other things. For poops and pickles, if the Mets had that money back their 2008 payroll would have been more like $112 million, not $138 million. To be honest, I have no idea how much the Mets team attrition compares to other clubs, but 916 games is a ton of missed time.

Keep in mind that I only included players whom the Mets could have reasonably expected to be on their 25-man roster for the whole season. Here's the positional breakdown:

  • Starting pitching: 250 games, $11,032,228.11
  • Relief pitching: 207 games, $4,322,530.86
  • Infield: 65 games, $2,507,716.05
  • Outfield: 195 games, $6,435,185.19
  • Bench: 199 games, $972,145.06

Even with all of these injuries the Mets still had a great chance to make the playoffs this season. I'd be making excuses if I blamed their having fallen short on bad health, though it'd be equally naive to suggest that their physical breakdowns didn't play any role in their ultimate demise. To have four players from your would-be active roster miss at least 125 games apiece and not have your record suffer to some degree is unrealistic. Plenty of blame still falls on Omar Minaya for not having reasonable contingency plans for some of these guys, most notably Alou and Hernandez, who were safe bets to miss significant time in any given year. Still, a little more luck in the health department and we might not be grinding our teeth bitterly as we watch other teams take their hacks at baseball history.

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What happened

To Matt Wise anyway? I just remember hearing he was injured and put on the disabled list and never hearing about him again.

Also as much as it sucked losing those guys, I’m not really sure it’s an excuse for the front office, going into the season relying so much on guys like Pedro, El Duque, Alou and Castillo coming off knee surgery really wasn’t a very good decision. Plus we got pretty lucky that none of our major stars missed any time, which doesn’t happen for most teams. Imagine what kind of shape we’d been in if something had happened to Wright/Beltran/Reyes or Santana. I really think when you take out the guys who pretty much should have been expected to miss some sort of significant time, we would be pretty lucky compared to most teams. It’s not like we lost Curt Shilling for the season and had Josh Beckett and Davis Ortiz spending significant time on the dl.

by Gina on Oct 7, 2008 8:44 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

last i heard

matt wise was dancing at a club, “Sparkles,” in Secaucus. He’s saving money and trying to get his life back together.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself in to trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Oct 7, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

good point

about the stars. The Phillies have lost Rollins and Utley for chunks of the last 2 seasons, whereas we haven’t lost anyone that important.

by cjmulrain on Oct 7, 2008 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i've been saying to anyone who will listen

that the mets offense had it good.

it would be an interesting SB Nation project to get a list like Eric’s for each team, then we could make some intelligent assessments of how bad the Mets had it. But from here it looks like poor planning, crappy team performances in key moments and lousy personnel, not injuries were the culprits. Omar’s bullpen plan was like McBain’s VP selection plan. Totally ferkakdeh.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself in to trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Oct 7, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

we're not talking about huge chunks there, though

Utley has played 291 of 324 games over the last two seasons, Rollins 299. We’ve been without Beltran, Delgado, (insert starting catcher), (insert starting right fielder), and (insert starting left fielder) for comparable amounts of time.

by JoshNY on Oct 7, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well

if you wanna insert random players, yea, but the Phillies have also lost random players. If you accept the fact that the 4 most important (everyday) players on each team are Howard, Rollins, Utley, and Burrell for them, Wright, Reyes, Delgado, and Beltran for us, then their 4 have missed a combined 88 games over the past 2 years, our 4 have missed a combined 54. Not a humongous difference, but it certainly gives us a slight advantage in the “stars” department (an average of 8.5 extra games each.) Also, Reyes and Wright have missed a combined 9 games over 2 years. I feel like I remember Reyes had a slight wrist injury last year that caused him to sit out a game or two, but other than that, the other games were just them getting a day of rest. For the Phillies, of their 4 stars, the only one who hasn’t seen the DL is Burrell, who is undeniably the least important of them.

It doesn’t make me feel good to say it, b/c I’d love to blame it on injuries, but the fact is they’ve just been a better team than us 2 years in a row. And the sole reason for that is they’ve had an above-average to great bullpen while we’ve had a below-average to terrible ’pen. Which is ironic considering going into last season all the pundits said the Phillies biggest question mark was their pen.

by cjmulrain on Oct 7, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

by the way

looking those numbers up, I was looking at Burrell’s stat sheet. I hear a lot of talk about signing someone like Manny or Teixeira this offseason, but what about Pat the Bat? His last 4 seasons have been pretty good:

05: .281/.38/ .504, 128 OPS+, 32 HR
06: .258/.388/.502, 122 OPS+, 29 HR
07: .256/.400/.502, 127 OPS+, 30 HR
08: .250/.367/.507, 123 OPS+, 33 HR

He hits lefties very well (career .950 OPS), and has actually been MUCH better away from Citizens Bank, so his numbers aren’t a product of his home park (career .773 OPS at CBP), and he has a reputation for hitting really well against us (career .884 OPS, with 42 HR in 533 AB). Plus, taking him away from the Phillies could be a double bonus. I feel like he’s a solid fielder, though I’m not really sure on that one. And he’s a proven winner, beating us 2 years in a row ;)

by cjmulrain on Oct 7, 2008 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Burrel

I mentioned Burrel on another board and mostly got negative responses. Idk why. He’s like 32 so I can understand not wanting him if his contract demands are ridiculous, but otherwise I think he would be a perfect fit. Or Milton Bradley if he can be signed away from the Rangers.

by Gina on Oct 7, 2008 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i just dislike Fat Squirel

no baseball reasons. and…remember when we were going to grab a certain aged atlanta pitcher and make ourselves better at the direct cost of our enemy?

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself in to trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Oct 7, 2008 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm wary of the Milton Bradley

I mean, I know karate. He know ka-razy.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 7, 2008 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Burrell

I’m pretty sure he’s not actually a solid fielder but clearly he can hit the ball.

by JoshNY on Oct 8, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yea

I wasn’t sure about his fielding. Is it possible he is one of those “good arm, bad range” type guys? I’ve never gotten the sense that he was a good fielder, but I feel like I’ve heard announcers talk about his arm. Then again, Joe Morgan’s an announcer, so take that with a grain of salt.

by cjmulrain on Oct 9, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Burrell would be nice if we could get him

Isn’t he another Boras client? God, it sucks dealing with them; guy’s completely soulless. But it’d be great sticking it to the Phillies and making ourselves better at the same time.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 7, 2008 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Burrell would be stupid!!!

How would you feel about signing Burrell, who struggles to hit .280 in CBP, and then seeing the Phils sign Manny to replace him? We would really be sticking it to ’em then!

by gomets on Oct 8, 2008 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Manny is signing with the Yankees

I would put money on it.

And while Burrell isn’t a great batting average guy (for instance, his career average in CBP is .272, as you pointed out), his career OBP of .367 is pretty good, almost exactly the same as Moises Alou (.369).

by JoshNY on Oct 8, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see the Phillies paying for Manny

Just my amateur hunch, but they don’t strike me as willing to throw down the money it’ll take to land him.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 8, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Word.

The Yankees will throw mountains of cash at Manny. There may not be a limit to how much they offer him. Jr. Steinbrenner is desperate to open the new stadium with a bang, and flush with cash. The only other players for Manny (if there are any) are us and the Dodgers.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 8, 2008 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah but

marlon anderson’s time spent on the DL should be counted as a net gain for the team. i they were recasting Charles in Charge using only Mets players Marlon Anderson would be Buddy Lembeck.

by kendynamo on Oct 7, 2008 9:34 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

who would be Nicole Eggert?

by JoshNY on Oct 7, 2008 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

or Josie Davis?

by Eric Simon on Oct 7, 2008 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that chick in the photo with Dub that Eric posted last week?

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 7, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

she can be Nicole Eggert as often as she wants.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Oct 7, 2008 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

with Alou and Ol Duque

the Mets must have lead the league in “easily predicted injuries (EPI).” I think the Red Sox predicted Pedro’s 4 years ago.

I’m not sure how big a role the injuries played in this crazy mixed up season. Why, the Hebrew Hammer didn’t miss a minute of the action.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself in to trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Oct 7, 2008 12:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Liabilities

Yes. Alou and Hernandez were obviously our largest liabilities respectively.

Eric…That is a great chart that you have created. It’s staggering for a person such as myself who earns a mere pittance to see how much money a player can make for producing so little. I would have like to have seen one more item though. A column showing what the current contractual obligation is to each player (if that info is available). That would give all of us an idea of how much money the METS might be unfortunate enough to waste next season.

Someone earlier this season tried telling me how economically viable it is for a person to be paid so much money for hitting a ball with a piece of wood because of that individual’s rare talent. Sorry, no one will ever convince me that this talent is worth the insane amount that players are paid.

Remember how unrealistically high housing prices became? It’s the same thing with the players. The owners / GM’s incorrectly estimate the worth of these players. (See Tampa Bay Rays for a fix). I understand that their salaries are what the market will bare. Just goes to show how stupid we are as consumers to pay these absurd prices for tickets / parking / concessions etc.

" NOT WORTH A CONTINENTAL ! "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Oct 7, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

you're right they're getting paid what the market will bear

they bring in a ton of money for teams. no reason they shouldn’t be paid well (maybe not $25 MM/year, though).

also,

^—- Mets contract obligations

by gogomets on Oct 7, 2008 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

EL DUQUE MADE $7 MILLION THIS YEAR?!!!

Omar just might be the solution we need to solve the credit crisis.

by Reg Dunlop on Oct 7, 2008 12:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

One quibble

Is it really ‘salary missed’? Players still get paid when they’re on the DL, don’t they? Maybe a better column would be “$ per game not injured”

Alou: $326,086
Anderson: $8,750
Castillo: $64,432
Castro: $15,192
Church: $333,333
Hernandez: Infinity. Money very poorly spent.
Maine: $3,515
Martinez: $109,382
Pagan: $10,037
Sanchez: $77,272
Wagner: $92,920
Wise: $80,000

And one Eric forgot: Damion Easley. He wasn’t placed on the DL, but I think I remember him getting injured. Plus, he didn’t play at all between 9/13 and 9/21, when he pinch-hit. From 9/21 on, he made just 3 plate appearances, all as a PH. The time he missed seems incidental in quantity, but it’s more important that he was apparently unavailable to play down the stretch, necessitating our reliance on Castillo, Argenis Reyes, and Ramon Martinez during the last 2 weeks of the season.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 7, 2008 8:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think what Eric means by "salary missed"

Is that those funds are accounted for in the $138 million payroll (since that number is thrown around all the time), but a good amount of those dollars were not accounted for on the field (even though the Mets paid them out).

We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!

by kingcritical on Oct 7, 2008 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

as Ice Cube might have said

i think we need to kick some shit about the cost of insuring these players, particularly after the recent financial collapse.

anyone hear about the AIG guys today? funking ponderous.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself in to trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Oct 7, 2008 8:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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