Tuesday Applesauce

by Eric Simon on Nov 11, 2008 11:00 AM EST in Applesauce

In Arizona:

Daniel Murphy went 1-for-5 with a double, a run scored and an RBI. He also made a fielding error at second.
Tobi Stoner allowed a run on two hits in two innings of relief.
Jason Vargas got ruff'd up for five runs on four hits in two innings.

In the Dominican Republic:

Argenis Reyes went 2-for-5 with a double, an RBI and a run scored.
Fernando Tatis went 2-for-4 with a double.

At MetsGeek, James Kannengieser takes a look at the plate discipline of the 2008 Mets.

At Beyond the Boxscore, R.J. Anderson has a nice piece on Pedro Martinez, looking at the dominance of his past and the uncertainty of his future.

Also at BtB, Sky Kalkman has completed his positional valuation for 2008 and has distilled it down to the top fifty players at any position. The Mets land two players in the top ten and three in the top twenty.

Nice profile of Nate Silver in the New York Times for his work at FiveThirtyEight.com.

Athletics Nation reacts to the Matt Holliday deal. Purple Row does likewise.

FishStripes reacts to the Scott Olsen/Josh Willingham trade. Fire Jim Bowden does likewise.

Trevor Hoffman is looking less and less likely to return to San Diego next season. I'll say it again: If the Mets are reluctant to hand out a multi-year deal to any of the closers on the free agent market or to pony up the necessary players to trade for one, they could do far worse than signing Hoffman to a one-year deal.

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First non-Kunz ruff usage

…so it begins.

by Sokojoe on Nov 11, 2008 11:03 AM EST reply actions

For the record

I still feel that we should reserve it for Eddie. It’s what makes him special.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Nov 11, 2008 11:17 AM EST up reply actions

Holliday

I have to believe Beane sees something I don’t, because the home/road splits scared me when the Mets were talking about trading for him.

by JoshNY on Nov 11, 2008 11:26 AM EST reply actions

Plus

He goes from one of the all-time great hitting environments to the hitters graveyard that is McAfee(?) Coliseum. Maybe Beane is going to flip him for better prospects than the guys he gave up.

by Reg Dunlop on Nov 11, 2008 12:29 PM EST up reply actions

eh

.280/.348/.455 on the road with defense, baserunning, and plate discipline still improving. I still like him.

Who's world is it? It's yours.

by BlackOps on Nov 11, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions

If they sign Hoffman

They gotta wait until December 1st. It’s obvious they won’t offer Hoffman arbitration.

"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-

by future on Nov 11, 2008 11:50 AM EST reply actions

any idea how Murph's range is at 2nd base?

by walkoffwalk on Nov 11, 2008 12:50 PM EST reply actions

There is not enough data in the AFL

on top of that, the Mets have (smartly) been very quiet about his defense. However, his translated FRAA last year (2007) at 3B was +13 in 131 games and this year was +4 in 60 games at Bingo. I don’t think Mets fans realize that Murphy is a very good defensive 3B. To compare a 3B shifting to 2B, Akinori Iwamura had a FRAA of -10 over 128 in 2007 while a FRAA of 0 over 135 in 2008 as a 2B. While there are obvious problems with the comparsons, it still stands to reason that an above average 3B could be at least an average 2B. It is still important to note that, even though stereotyping is bad, Iwamura is 5’9’’ 175 lbs while Murphy us 6’1’’ 210 lbs, giving Iwamura the more stereotypical 2B build. However, that didn’t stop Ripken, ARod, and Jeff Kent from playing their respective positions, I’m rambling…in conclusion, no, no idea how’s Murph’s range is at 2nd base.

by Sokojoe on Nov 11, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions

Good stuff

Move Wright to 2nd? ;)

by Sam Page on Nov 11, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

Ha

Yeah, so in conclusion, move our Franchise player to a position he’s never played before because the Rays showed that moving a player from 3rd to 2nd builds Team Chemistry, Focus and Love (the most forgotten intangable in SABRmetrics) and we’ll be world series bound.

by Sokojoe on Nov 11, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions

True

However, moving a player from 3rd to Left to 2nd instead of directly to 2nd will cause deep shame and many losses. As such, the Mets would be wise not to move Dan Murphy to 2nd.

by ams258 on Nov 11, 2008 3:29 PM EST up reply actions

Defense

You might be putting a little too much stock into the BP defense numbers. While scouts do sometimes underrate some players’ defense, I’d really prefer to see more than the BP FRAA translations—they don’t use PBP data so I’ll grudgingly trust the scouts. (Also remember, Murphy converted to third from the outfield in college).

Most of the scouting reports on Murphy’s defense at third before the season came back as a below average defensive third baseman.

by Alex Nelson on Nov 11, 2008 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

I don't put too much stock

in BP defense numbers. They were just the most accesible to me for minor league defensive statistics. Obviously, I would also like to see more than just BP FRAA but I don’t know where to easily find it, do you know what sites I should visit?

However, in regards to scouts, in addition to all the subjectivity, sample issues, etc. to scouting, espically in the lower level to players who are not regarded as prospects (Murphy fits into the latter,) scouts have been known to been flat out wrong about defense if a guy doesn’t make webgems, have a cannon arm or have the “look” of a great defender. Over at Royals Review the topic of Aviles’ defense was often brought up. The scouts always talked about his poor defense but the numbers stated the opposite. It was until he was in the majors before the scouting reports slowly began to change while the stats stayed the same.

Anyways, not saying Murphy is perfectly comparable to Aviles, just that I tend to side with numbers over scouts even if they are as flawed as BP FRAA, but as the old saying goes, some people say cucumbers taste better pickled, so to each his own.

by Sokojoe on Nov 11, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions