Friday Applesauce

by Eric Simon on Nov 14, 2008 11:00 AM EST in Applesauce

Lee Mazzilli won't be back with SNY this season. I nothing-ed him, so this doesn't really strike me one way or the other. SNY has reportedly reached out to Bobby Ojeda as a possible replacement.

At RotoGraphs, David Golebiewski looks at Jon Niese as a possible back of the rotation guy. RotoGraphs is a fantasy-centric sub-page of FanGraphs, so while the content is somewhat geared towards fantasy league play, most of what I've read so far could very easily double as non-fantasy content.

At Beyond the Boxscore, Peter Bendix breaks down the Nick Swisher-to-the-Yankees deal, and concludes -- as everyone else has -- that the Yankees bought low and likely made out like bandits on this one.

Further reaction on the trade can be found at South Side Sox and Pinstripe Alley.

Keith Law has posted his free agent rankings over at ESPN.com. Baseball Digest Daily has posted their rankings, too.

At Bleed Cubbie Blue, Al Yellon reflects on the end of the Kerry Wood era in Chicago.

AZ Snakepit discusses the likely impending departure of Randy Johnson from Arizona. Rob Neyer thinks he could be a bargain (subscription required).

Off-topic economy-in-turmoil post of the day, Peter Schiff ~~will have~~ has now had his revenge on Wall Street.

And finally, even Donald Fagen has to convince his friends that Steely Dan is teh r0xor.

Tweet Comment 21 comments | 1 recs |

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Comments

Dunn

Dunn can hit 80 homers, and I’d never take his .236 average. CC should be #1. Teixeria is super solid, but a young ace lefty should always be #1. Teixeria has put up great numbers, but the gap between him and, say, a Delgado just isn’t very much. (Not to say we should be going for him)

I’d love to see CC here. Imagine him and Johan and Pelfrey and Maine? The extra 10 million for CC is worth it over holding our collective breaths that Oliver Perez won’t be a walkfest on any given day.

The 2008 NY Mets: Pedro hurt already. Delgado still sucks. Mets still can't beat the Braves. Beltran only plays 6 innings. WTF with Pelfrey?? Mets win 60 in a row. Freakin' Wagner. PLAYOFFS, NO WAY?!

by ZaBlanc on Nov 14, 2008 1:01 PM EST reply actions

Dunn

I’m about a hundred times more concerned about Dunn’s wretched defense than his low batting average. I still don’t quite get why some flat-earthers still care so much about batting average when it has been demonstrated to the point of irrefutability that it is woefully less important than almost any other measure of offensive value. To wit:

by Eric Simon on Nov 14, 2008 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

My concerns.

I’m big on average. Homers and all that are great…but when I really need a hit, what are the chances dude will pull through? 2nd and 3rd, 2 out, I want a hitter up there, not necessarily a guy who might club a homer. It’s a big turnoff for me to see big power numbers and no average.

Rob Deer anyone? Incaviglia?

The 2008 NY Mets: Pedro hurt already. Delgado still sucks. Mets still can't beat the Braves. Beltran only plays 6 innings. WTF with Pelfrey?? Mets win 60 in a row. Freakin' Wagner. PLAYOFFS, NO WAY?!

by ZaBlanc on Nov 14, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions

Dunn

I’m looking at on-base percentage (i.e. the ability to not make an out) and slugging (i.e. the ability to hit for extra-bases, which has a high correlation to driving in runs). Your perception is that since Dunn doesn’t hit for a high average, he won’t knock in those runs or that he only tries to hit homeruns or something else equally inane (such as picking a single situation, like second-and-third with two outs, and using that as the benchmark for evaluating all hitters). Your persistence at keeping your head buried in the sand despite everyone around you offering a shovel is mind-boggling.

Your player comps are astonishingly off-base, too. career OPS+:

Rob Deer: 109
Pete Incaviglia: 104
Adam Dunn: 130

by Eric Simon on Nov 14, 2008 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

So what does it mean?

You want Dunn here? Equally questioning, how come the Mets didn’t go for Matt Holliday in light of what Oakland gave up (nothin!) to get him?

A big bat in Left Field, reasonably cheap for a year, and we’d have a shot to resign him.

The 2008 NY Mets: Pedro hurt already. Delgado still sucks. Mets still can't beat the Braves. Beltran only plays 6 innings. WTF with Pelfrey?? Mets win 60 in a row. Freakin' Wagner. PLAYOFFS, NO WAY?!

by ZaBlanc on Nov 14, 2008 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

Holliday

What the A’s gave up is kind of equal to us giving Fernando Martinez (Tools, young, good season a couple of seasons ago, not much production of late,) Jon Niese (Young starter that can pitch in the majors next season,) and Joe Smith (I guess, we don’t really have a comparable young RP that has been mostly effective.)

by Sokojoe on Nov 14, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions

Dunn

I wasn’t going to touch this as this topic of “BA,” “Give me a hitter,” etc. has really become boring. Everyone has their own views and that’s fine. There are topics that some people will never budge on such as politics, religion, and batting average.

However, I just wanted to point that in your example of running in scoring position with 2 outs, you are correct, Dunn does not get a hit too often. In 53 ABs in the aforemetioned situation, Dunn batted .208. However, his OBP was .468 and SLG was .623, his BB to K was 22 to 19, by far his best ratio in any situation, 19 runs eventually scored by himself, 26 RBIs, with 7 HRs (one HR every 7.5 AB.) Pitchers are afraid of this man with 2 outs RISP and should be.

For comparions sake, Derek Jeter lived up to his reputation and in 61 ABs in the same situation (slightly more than Dunn) he batted .328. So, ZaBlanc, you said you’re big on average, well Jeter had a much higher average in your situation than Dunn, however, Jeter knocked in (I’m not even making this up) 26 RBIs! The same number as Dunn. Obviously, there a caveats to using this example (such as RBIs is a silly stat) but I just wanted to point out to you that there are different ways of getting a job done, not just BA.

by Sokojoe on Nov 14, 2008 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

uh oh

you just opened the “RBI is pointless” can of worms. I favor statistical analysis, but I still say that RBI is the single most important factor of past value of any stat out there, but is absolutely useless for anything else (i.e. it doesn’t tell you who was the best hitter or give any indication for future performance).

And as for BA – I think it’s been well-established that OBP is more important, but if we’re evaluating two guys with a similar OBP (say, ~.400), with all other things being equal (power, defense), I’d prefer the guy who hit .350 with less walks than the guy who hit .250 with 100 walks…walks are great, but hits are still more valuable.

by cjmulrain on Nov 14, 2008 10:38 PM EST up reply actions

oh, all that said

I’ll take Adam Dunn in a micro-second. 40 HR, .400 OBP, and 100 RBI every year? Sign me up

by cjmulrain on Nov 14, 2008 10:39 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think

people discount the value of hits, just that hits often have a lot to do with luck and are more likely to fluctuate from year to year so it’s not a solid thing to build a team around. Not to mention that over the course of a season the difference between a .240 hitter and a .280 hitter is a little under one hit a week. So what does the .40 point difference really tell you?

by Gina on Nov 15, 2008 1:31 AM EST up reply actions

RsBI

RsBI is still extremely problematic as a retrospective evaluative tool. Raw RsBI counts tell us nothing of total opportunities, nor do they provide any meaningful context to those opportunities. RsBI is a marginally useful counting stat that truly tells you almost nothing about what a batter did or how good he was at doing it.

For that you need something like WPA or, even better, WPA/LI.

by Eric Simon on Nov 15, 2008 2:34 AM EST up reply actions

RBIs are ok for juding past performance, if you account for context.

100 RBI batting fourth for the Yankees isn’t as impressive as 100 RBI batting second for the Twins. And if you’re going to take the time to adjust for context, why not just go straight to BRAA or WPA?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 15, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions

The point that Adam Dunn is way better than Rob Deer is key.

Every time there’s a low-AVG, high-BB, high-HR hitter, they always get compared to Deer. And while they might have similar styles, they all don’t have the same talent.

And an additional point is that not all situations are 2nd/3rd, tight game, two outs. Dunn can drive in two runs with a runner only on first. Dunn can be that guy sitting on second in the tight game. And he’ll hit three-run homers in the third inning, making late-innings non-important. Look at the big picture. And yes, the big picture includes his lack of fielding talent.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 15, 2008 12:28 PM EST up reply actions

A guy who might club a homer?

I personally would rather have a guy who might drive in three with a homer than a slap hitter who might drive in one with a single, especially if the slap hitter is more likely to make an out.

I think a better argument (though I wouldn’t agree with it) is that Dunn is very likely to take a walk to load the bases. Depending on where he bats in the line up this could be bad if he is turning the AB over to a lesser hitter. But this could easily be avoided by batting him second in front of either D-Dubs or Voltron.

by Reg Dunlop on Nov 14, 2008 2:29 PM EST up reply actions

Can I rec this twice?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 15, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

"Teixeria has put up great numbers, but the gap between him and, say, a Delgado just isn’t very much."

The gap between Teixeira and Delgado in 2008 was .057 in OBP, .034 in SLG (combining to be 24 points in OPS+), as well as (per BtB) 22 runs worth of defense (Teixeira is up there with Pujols in contention for being the best defensive 1B in the league, Delgado is, at best, slightly below average)). The gap between them will always be, of course, that Teixeira is 8 years younger. In short, the gap between them is massive.

That being said, I’m figuring the Yankees will let him name his own price and he’ll wind up in the Bronx.

by JoshNY on Nov 14, 2008 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs