FanPost

Rule 5 Draft - Player Analysis Part I

The Rule 5 draft is a very exciting time of the year for me. The results are much more immediate than the Rule 4 draft and the ability to out value players over opposing teams are much more apparent than in Free Agency. Everyone has a fair shot in the Rule 5 draft; unlike Free Agency, money means little. If a GM can out analyze his peers, your team could walk away with a Johan Santana, Roberto Clemente, Jesus Flores or, even though not as sexy, a useful RP that can save your club millions to be used elsewhere. MLBTradeRumors compiled a list of names from various writers of players to keep an eye on for the Rule 5 draft. Using thebaseballcube.com, I have pulled their numbers and offer my own analysis to each player.

Juan Abreu - RHP

Year Age Level W L ERA G GS GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
2005 20 Rk 2 5 6.88 14 13 0 52.1 72 49 40 4 27 52 12.38 0.69 4.64 8.94 1.89
2006 21 Rk 4 2 5.62 20 0 4 2 49.2 39 33 31 4 34 57 7.07 0.72 6.16 10.33 1.47
2008 23 A 4 4 3.66 22 4 10 7 76.1 59 40 31 6 42 104 6.96 0.71 4.95 12.26 1.32

Great K numbers, walk rate not so much. The walk rate is not a rusty arm coming back from injury either; it's always been this bad. Pass in the major league phase, questionable in the minor league phase.

Jordan Brown - LH

Year Age Level Pos G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB AVG OBP SLG OPS
2006 22 A+ of 125 473 71 137 26 8 15 88 4 0 51 59 4 0 .290 .362 .474 836
2007 23 AA 1b 127 483 85 161 36 2 11 76 11 2 63 56 11 8 .333 .421 .484 905
2008 24 AAA 109 420 52 118 30 3 7 51 3 3 35 67 2 5 .281 .337 .417 754

Good eye at the plate, mediocre power. The latter is not a great combination for a 1st Basemen prospects, especially considering Brown's eye wasn't as keen his first season in AAA. Pass in the major league phase.

Bobby Brownlie - RHP

Year Age Level W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
2006 25 AA 3 11 5.72 32 8 74.0 102 50 47 7 34 52 12.41 0.85 4.14 6.32 1.84
2006 25 AAA 0 3 10.81 8 1 11.2 24 15 14 4 6 14 18.52 3.09 4.63 10.81 2.57
2007 26 Ind 8 4 3.41 14 14 89.2 93 38 34 12 26 79 9.34 1.20 2.61 7.93 1.33
2007 26 AA 1 2 3.17 9 8 48.1 42 21 17 5 14 37 7.82 0.93 2.61 6.89 1.16
2008 27 AA 8 4 3.99 21 21 124.0 121 61 55 22 39 84 8.78 1.60 2.83 6.10 1.29
2008 27 AAA 1 3 7.86 9 4 26.1 40 23 23 7 10 18 13.67 2.39 3.42 6.15 1.90

Brownlie is a nice little story, working his way back to minor league ball after spending time in the independent league. However, at his best, he's a control pitcher who gets inexperienced hitters out with his breaking stuff. His stuff just doesn't cut in the higher levels as shown by his high H9 and HR9. Pass in major league phase.

Matt Fox - RHP

Year Age Org Level W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
2006 23 Min Rk 4 0 3.79 20 1 40.1 32 18 17 1 13 46 7.14 0.22 2.90 10.27 1.12
2007 24 Min A 7 2 3.50 22 13 82.1 75 35 32 7 23 66 8.20 0.77 2.51 7.21 1.19
2008 25 Min A+ 7 7 3.37 32 14 117.2 120 47 44 9 33 99 9.18 0.69 2.52 7.57 1.30

Fox has always done an extremely good job of keeping the ball in the park. Couple that with a good walk rate and a reasonable K rate and he looks like he has potential, except, he is way too old for his league and has been throughout his career. I know the Twins are loaded with prospects, but for Fox sake they should have at least tested him in AA, someone will probably take him in the minor league portion.

Alan Horne - RHP

Year Age Org Level W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
2006 23 Nyy A+ 6 9 4.77 28 26 122.2 104 72 65 10 61 122 7.63 0.73 4.48 8.95 1.35
2007 24 Nyy AA 12 4 3.11 27 27 153.1 149 68 53 10 57 165 8.75 0.59 3.35 9.68 1.34
2008 25 Nyy A+ 0 1 23.14 3 3 7.0 21 18 18 4 5 6 27.00 5.14 6.43 7.71 3.71
2008 25 Nyy AAA 2 3 5.63 8 8 32.0 35 25 20 2 22 24 9.84 0.56 6.19 6.75 1.78

Horne has always been a bit overhyped, but he is still a better pitcher than he showed last year in an injury-marred season. He doesn't make sense for the Mets, but I could see a team like the Pirates taking a chance on him if he's healthy.

Kei Igawa – LHP

I kind of hate Kei Igawa. I'm a big fan of the NPB (Go Buffaloes!) and it was always obvious the Igawa was not as good as his stats showed, as well as actually declining at his young age. Now, I didn't think he would flop as hard as he did, but still the money the Yankees gave him was reactionary to the Red Sox getting Dice-K and, in my opinion, furthered NYs distrust in Japanese ballplayers, much in the same way Kaz Matsui and Satoru Komiyama did. I hate Igawa for the latter. I'm not saying we should sign as many Japanese players as we can or that even that Omar listens to the fan base (he did after all offer the second highest bid for Dice-K even after the Matsui flop,) but it's painful when the reaction of the fanbase is so predictable that it actually limits our options. Just like how the Mets will never sign Adam Dunn, (the fanbase would go nuts,) I don't know if the fanbase would accept money spent on Japanese players much in the same way Latin American players are acquired. I guess what I'm trying to say is hate the player not the hype/country of origin/style of playing baseball, e.g. take-n-rake. I've gone way off topic and probably totally off-base so here comes a softball to get my swing back.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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