Rule 5 Draft - Player Analysis Part II

by Sokojoe on Nov 24, 2008 7:31 PM EST

Chuck Lofgren - LHP

Year	Age	Org	Level	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	H9	HR9	BB9	K9	WHIP
2006	20	Cle	A+	17	5	2.32	25	25	139.2	107	51	36	5	54	125	6.90	0.32	3.48	8.06	1.15
2007	21	Cle	AA	12	7	4.37	26	26	146.1	153	79	71	14	68	123	9.41	0.86	4.18	7.57	1.51
2008	21	Cle	AAA	0	1	10.80	1	1	5.0	7	6	6	1	3	7	12.60	1.80	5.40	12.60	2.00
2008	22	Cle	AA	2	6	5.99	28	15	85.2	93	59	57	9	52	72	9.77	0.95	5.46	7.56	1.69

Live arm, too many walks. Pass on both phases.

Daniel Mayora - RHP

Year	Age	Org.	Level	Pos	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2006	20	Col	A-	ss	74	276	40	84	19	2	5	30	8	4	23	70	9	1	.304	.375	.442	817
2007	21	Col	A	2b	127	516	88	160	42	1	14	78	26	9	41	124	6	3	.310	.366	.477	843
2008	22	Col	A+		127	486	65	140	34	5	7	55	8	8	44	100	12	3	.288	.360	.422	782

Mayora is a very interesting player. Tell me if this sounds familiar, a Daniel, who plays second base, good minor league power numbers albeit in a hitter friendly environment, a few too many strikeouts and reasonable walk rate. If you said Daniel Murphy, you are a Met-centric fanboy, if you said Dan Uggla, huzzah I guess. The main caveat against the Uggla comparison is that while Uggla did put up his numbers in the hitting environment of Arizona's farm system, Mayora did it in Colorado's. However, in Mayora's favor, he started his career as a third baseman before moving to SS then to second, so he has a versatile glove. He has yet to play above A+ so I don't think he should be selected in major league phase, but, could be worth a flier in the minor league phase. He has, and I stress, the potential to be a young, power right-handed, utility player who could be used to make a Daniel-Squared Second Base Platoon…or his power numbers are Colorado created, his strikeouts will only get worse as he moves up, the walks are power-driven, and his defense is awful at all positions.

Eduardo Morlan - RHP

Year	Age	Org	Level	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	H9	HR9	BB9	K9	WHIP
2006	20	Min	A	5	5	2.29	28	18	106.1	78	31	27	6	38	125	6.60	0.51	3.22	10.58	1.09
2007	21	Min	A+	4	3	3.15	41	0	65.2	55	25	23	7	17	92	7.54	0.96	2.33	12.61	1.10
2007	21	Min	AA	1	0	2.25	2	0	4.0	3	1	1	0	3	7	6.75	0.00	6.75	15.75	1.50
2008	22	Tb	AA	4	2	3.64	30	0	47.0	44	21	19	5	15	45	8.43	0.96	2.87	8.62	1.26

There's not much to say about Morlan that can't be easily seen by his numbers. Good K9 – Check, Good BB9 – Check, Reasonable HR9 – Check, Reasonable H9 – Check, Age Apporiate League – Check, Worth a Rule V pick – Check?

Chris Nicoll - RHP

Year	Age	Org	Level	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	H9	HR9	BB9	K9	WHIP
2006	22	Kc	A	4	9	2.82	23	23	134.0	105	49	42	13	40	140	7.05	0.87	2.69	9.40	1.08
2006	22	Kc	A+	2	0	4.86	3	3	16.2	17	11	9	3	6	26	9.18	1.62	3.24	14.05	1.38
2007	23	Kc	A+	2	4	7.06	12	10	43.1	40	35	34	4	22	33	8.31	0.83	4.57	6.85	1.43
2008	24	Kc	A+	2	1	2.91	20	1	43.1	34	15	14	7	15	49	7.06	1.45	3.12	10.18	1.13
2008	24	Kc	AA	4	1	3.09	19	1	43.2	43	16	15	2	8	55	8.86	0.41	1.65	11.34	1.17

Polished pitcher who dominated A ball at 22. Nicoll then struggled with A+ ball upon promotion as well as with an arm injury in 2007. Came back strong in 2008 with a move to the bullpen and did well when promoted to AA. HR9 a bit high, so are the walks, but good stuff as shown by K9. Worth a minor league selection perhaps.

Jay Rainville - RHP

Missed all of 2006 with an arm injury. After a good 2007 in A+, did not impress in 2008. A move to the bullpen could warrant a longer look as well as non-fragment sentence analysis.

James Skelton – LHB, RHT

Josh Thole meet James Skelton. Like Thole, Skelton is a left-handed catcher, with a great eye at the plate, lacking power, and questionable defense. Unlike Thole, Skelton was one year older at each level; however, was aggressively promoted to AA midseason where he maintained his great eye and minus-power. I would consider Thole a better prospect based on age and showing of a bit more power last year, but Skelton has done it at a higher level and is a pretty good baserunner to boot. Fans need to realize how shitty the average ML catcher is (.254/.327/.388.) Skeletor has a chance of being league average next year, and can be had in the minor league phase. With Schneider and Castro, the Mets cannot afford to carry a third catcher, no matter what Omar thinks, and I'm sure someone will take a chance on him, the Tigers for one are in need of a young backup who might prove to be more…oh wait.

Tim Stauffer - RHP

Stauffer is a sad story. The fourth overall pick in 2003 was a can't miss prospect. However, look at his innings total in college, he averaged nearly 8 innings at age 20 and 21, completing 23 games in 33 starts. Seriously, fuck the heck with some college managers. Stauffer has been mishandled by the Padres, never seeing AA and only 35 innings below AAA and the majors. He needs a fresh start and I don't think the Mets are a team that can offer him the start he needs.

Wade Townsend - RHP

Exhibit B of college managers mishandling their pitchers. Townsend averaged roughly 8 innings per start at age 21, at age 20 he not only averaged roughly 7.8 innings per start but also came in for 16 games of relief. Seriously, what the fuck. Unsurprisingly, Townsend career has been marred with injuries as with many Rice pitchers, but hey, at least Wayne Graham is happy. Townsend will miss most of 2009 recovering from another surgery.

Philippe Valiquette - LHP

He's lefty, I got nothing else…wait, he's got alright HR9 numbers…kind of.

Donald Veal - LHP

He's lefty, he has a history of striking guys out, he also has a history of walking everyone…moving on…

Ryan Wagner - RHP

Year	Age	Level	W	L	ERA	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	H9	HR9	BB9	K9	WHIP
2003	20	NCAA	6	5	1.93	38	79.1	39	19	17	1	21	148	4.42	0.11	2.38	16.79	0.76

Inspired by Chad Cordero, Wagner was selected by Jim Bowden and quickly rushed through into the majors. Just to remind us why he was so highly regarded, I left his last college season up. Wow. Injuries and losing his stuff have contributed to his decline; someone will probably pick him though.

Kyle Waldrop - RHP

Mediocre stuff, mediocre stats. A move to the bullpen looks likely.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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Note:

I had stat tables for all players, but due to formatting errors, I had to delete some in order to make the post readable. Kind of sucks but whatever.

by Sokojoe on Nov 24, 2008 7:32 PM EST reply actions

To conclude:

Morlan has an incredible 2007 and I would want the Mets to pick him if he is available.

I believe Skelton should be given a shot by any team who needs a backup catcher and will be very interested in his season in order to have a glance into Thole’s possible future.

Mayora would be a good pick in the minor league phase.

by Sokojoe on Nov 24, 2008 7:35 PM EST reply actions

What are the odds Morlan is unprotected?

Because I love the guy.

by Sam Page on Nov 24, 2008 7:53 PM EST up reply actions

All those listed are unprotected

If he falls to us is another question

by Sokojoe on Nov 24, 2008 8:01 PM EST up reply actions

Hell son!

“A” for effort!

" Whatcha got ain't nothin new. This country's hard on people, you can't stop what's coming, it ain't all waiting on you. That's vanity. "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Nov 24, 2008 7:49 PM EST reply actions

Stauffer

One of my co-workers went to Richmond and can’t believe how much Stauffer has struggled since coming into the majors, but also believes that he was probably moved up too quickly. I didn’t see him pitch in college but I guess he was something fierce against college hitters. I don’t know that we’re the right fit for him but he’s from near my hometown and I wish him luck.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Nov 24, 2008 8:26 PM EST reply actions

P.S.

Nice job with these two posts, Soko.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Nov 24, 2008 8:27 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks

by Sokojoe on Nov 24, 2008 8:55 PM EST up reply actions

Nitpick:

It’s the Rule 5 Draft, not the Rule V Draft. Other than that, great analysis.

Trivia: the Twins originally acquired Johan Santana in the Rule 5 Draft after the Astros left him unprotected in the fall of 1999.

by JoshNY on Nov 24, 2008 8:42 PM EST reply actions

Thanks

I was going to have to pick that nit myself if you hadn’t.

To follow up on your trivia, the Marlins actually selected Santana from the Astros and immediately traded him — plus cash! — to the Twins for minor league pitcher Jared Camp, who never pitched a big league inning.

by Eric Simon on Nov 24, 2008 8:49 PM EST up reply actions

I just wanted my post to look more badass is what

by Sokojoe on Nov 24, 2008 8:54 PM EST up reply actions

But I will change to avoid confusion

by Sokojoe on Nov 24, 2008 8:56 PM EST up reply actions

P.S.

I fixed the formatting and tables, etc. Microsoft Word does terrible things to HTML.

by Eric Simon on Nov 24, 2008 9:44 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks a lot

I’m severally lacking in that field, thats why you run this place.

by Sokojoe on Nov 24, 2008 10:06 PM EST up reply actions

true

From what I read, the Twins had the first pick, the Marlins the second, but the Marlins really wanted Camp so they worked out a deal where the Twins would pick Camp, the Marlins would take Santana, and then the Marlins would trade Santana plus cash for Camp.

by JoshNY on Nov 24, 2008 9:48 PM EST up reply actions

Nice job, Joe.

You’re on fire this off-season. I’d like to see us grab Nicoll or Morlan; either could be a nice bullpen arm for us in another year or two. Skelton, too, if only for the novelty of having a lefty catcher (yay!) and the inevitable “Skeletor” personalized jersey Ts. Really, we need to give him this nickname. I’ve already misread it that way 3 times on this page.

To pick a nit: Daniel Mayora spent 2008 playing high Class-A ball in Modesto. Although I don’t know anything about the park effects, I doubt they’re so severe as Colorado.

Also, one other question: I know that a player taken during the major-league portion must stay on the roster all season, but what are the rules regarding ones drafted during the minor-league portion of the draft? Are they just required to be on the 40-man roster, or are they lost forever?

by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 25, 2008 12:05 AM EST reply actions

Appreciate it

-Yeah, I threw in a Skeletor in my writeup.

-Good pick up about Mayora. I always heard that Colorado’s minor league parks had similar effects to batting, but looking at park effects Modesto appears to be a fair park that actually deflates HRs. However, the overall California league effect inflates his numbers and taking a look at his translated stats (.236/.300/.355) -11 FRAA at SS, I’m no longer interested.

Per Baseball America, There are Triple-A and Double-A segments of the Rule 5 draft, with price tags of $12,000 and $4,000 respectively. Minor league players not protected on the reserve lists at the Double-A and Class A levels are subject to selection, but almost no future big leaguers emerge from this process. It’s basically a tool for major league teams to fill out affiliates rather than obtain talent. However, the Giants found success in that route. In 2005, they took second baseman Eugenio Velez from the Blue Jays. So, to anwser your question, lost forever. Also, I’ll add to BA’s writeup that the Mets selected Eric Valent in the minor league portion, remember him…selected in the first round in the Rule 4 draft by the Phillies…filled in for Cliff Floyd whenever he got hurt in 2004…he hit for the cycle…in Montreal…

by Sokojoe on Nov 25, 2008 9:38 AM EST up reply actions