FanPost

Can Castillo bounce back?

Let me start this post with a statement:  I am a hater.  I like to go against the grain if quantitative data can back me up.  When it comes to Luis Castillo, there are Mets fans that have already made up their mind, mostly due to his contract, about how they feel about Castillo.  If you are the latter, feel free to skip my post and go straight to the comment sections and tell me that Castillo sux0r, while you're at it tell me Bonds is overrated, the Jets turn around is due to Favre’s leadership and not Kris JenkinsAnna Kournikova wasn't a very good doubles partnerit was a mistake letting Avery go and Metallica hasn't released a great album since "...And Justice for All."  Wait, scratch that last one.

.245/.355/.305/.660 with terrible defense -5 Runs below replacement.

You don't need me to tell you, nor stats, Castillo was awful last year.  His contract was a mistake before the ink dried.  However, this is the past and barring any moves, he is our starting second baseman in 2009.  This post is not about what the Mets should do with him but if he can bounce back from last season.

(After looking over some data, I realize this post will be much shorter and less structured than I expected.)

Why was Castillo awful last year?   Again, this is obvious without stats but let's confirm what we know via them.  Last year, Castillo had a 14.4 BB%, 11.7 K%, 1.43 BB/K, and a .060 ISO.  His career line, 10.7 BB%, 13.3 K%, .90 BB/K, and a .064 ISO.  This is a good sign, as he was essentially the same player he has been throughout his career, better even rate wise, more walks, less Ks, with a touch less power.  His line drive, groundball and flys were also in line with his career.  So, why did he have such a terrible season?  His career BABIP is .333, last year it was .269. Ouch.  Now we know BABIP can fluctuate from season to season, but this dropoff can be explained two-fold: 

1) His surgery to his knees

2) Showing up to camp out of shape

Legging out infield hits as well as dropping drag bunts has always been a staple of Castillo's game.  Surgically repaired knees and being fat, contrary to popular belief, does not help in the latter department; ergo, BABIP will suffer.  In addition, this could explain his poor defensive showing.

Let's look at the positives to the two-fold problem.  Castillo clearly wasn't fully recovered from surgery...and he was fat.  The fact that he stole 17 bases while getting caught twice shows that he still has something left in his legs (or he is a very smart baserunner.)  Perhaps, getting in shape and his knees getting stronger with some better luck, Castillo could get his BABIP up to say .300.  Eyeballing that would give him a line of .276/.386/.336/.722.  For comparison, the average second baseman had a line of .276/.340/.409/.749 (remember OBP is said to worth 1.5 that of SLG which would make Castillo a league average second baseman almost to a point, I love when things work out like that.)  In addition, maybe his defense comes back along with being in shape and healthy.  

(Aside:  I don't understand the hate Castillo got for showing up to spring training fat. I mean I get it and it's definitely not a positive characteristic.  I think it stems from the fact that we, as fans, would give our left arm for just the chance to being a professional athlete, so when we see a player act like Castillo, we hate him for it. Does he not realize how lucky he is?  Still, don't act like he's the only one to ever do this.  I've seen plenty of students in college, realizing they were going to pass a class, just give up going to class and learning.  Or a co-worker upon being promoted or giving a bonus, slacking off.  Or a husband with an absolutely beautiful wife, cheat on her.  There are those in the world who would love to have the opportunity we have here in country but some take it for granted...I'm off topic.)

There are plenty of sports examples of the main subject of the aside as well,  Bryan Thomas (LB of the Jets) got a big contract extension before the 2007 season, showed up to camp out of shape, sucked for a year, came back this year to training camp saying the same thing Castillo is saying and is having a good season, so it's possible for a player to bounce back from being lazy.

So, combining the recovery of his knees, getting in shape, a little better luck and the fact that Castillo has not really lost any of his inner-baseball skills, it's very likely that he could be a league average second baseman next year.  The latter assertion, while not groundbreaking, would mean a huge upgrade for the Mets at second and certainly would have gotten them to the playoffs last year if they had a league average second baseman all other things being equal.

However, this post is not a Castillo love-fest.  Knee surgery is an extremely serious sports injury, check out knee1.com for proof...awesome website, best site on the internets if you ask me now that fjm.com is gone.  Mickey Mantle never recovered from his knee injury, Mo Vaughn's career ended with knee surgery, ditto for Bill Mueller, and Andre Dawson, personal favorite Patrick Ewing never was the same once his knees went, even Tiger’s future is up in the air after knee surgery.  So, even though I love stats, this really is a subjective topic, the question should not be can Castillo bounce back but rather can Castillo knees bounce back?

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process.