Can Castillo bounce back?

by Sokojoe on Nov 24, 2008 10:46 PM EST

Let me start this post with a statement: I am a hater. I like to go against the grain if quantitative data can back me up. When it comes to Luis Castillo, there are Mets fans that have already made up their mind, mostly due to his contract, about how they feel about Castillo. If you are the latter, feel free to skip my post and go straight to the comment sections and tell me that Castillo sux0r, while you're at it tell me Bonds is overrated, the Jets turn around is due to Favre’s leadership and not Kris Jenkins, Anna Kournikova wasn't a very good doubles partner, it was a mistake letting Avery go and Metallica hasn't released a great album since "...And Justice for All." Wait, scratch that last one.

.245/.355/.305/.660 with terrible defense -5 Runs below replacement.

You don't need me to tell you, nor stats, Castillo was awful last year. His contract was a mistake before the ink dried. However, this is the past and barring any moves, he is our starting second baseman in 2009. This post is not about what the Mets should do with him but if he can bounce back from last season.

(After looking over some data, I realize this post will be much shorter and less structured than I expected.)

Why was Castillo awful last year? Again, this is obvious without stats but let's confirm what we know via them. Last year, Castillo had a 14.4 BB%, 11.7 K%, 1.43 BB/K, and a .060 ISO. His career line, 10.7 BB%, 13.3 K%, .90 BB/K, and a .064 ISO. This is a good sign, as he was essentially the same player he has been throughout his career, better even rate wise, more walks, less Ks, with a touch less power. His line drive, groundball and flys were also in line with his career. So, why did he have such a terrible season? His career BABIP is .333, last year it was .269. Ouch. Now we know BABIP can fluctuate from season to season, but this dropoff can be explained two-fold:

1) His surgery to his knees

2) Showing up to camp out of shape

Legging out infield hits as well as dropping drag bunts has always been a staple of Castillo's game. Surgically repaired knees and being fat, contrary to popular belief, does not help in the latter department; ergo, BABIP will suffer. In addition, this could explain his poor defensive showing.

Let's look at the positives to the two-fold problem. Castillo clearly wasn't fully recovered from surgery...and he was fat. The fact that he stole 17 bases while getting caught twice shows that he still has something left in his legs (or he is a very smart baserunner.) Perhaps, getting in shape and his knees getting stronger with some better luck, Castillo could get his BABIP up to say .300. Eyeballing that would give him a line of .276/.386/.336/.722. For comparison, the average second baseman had a line of .276/.340/.409/.749 (remember OBP is said to worth 1.5 that of SLG which would make Castillo a league average second baseman almost to a point, I love when things work out like that.) In addition, maybe his defense comes back along with being in shape and healthy.

(Aside: I don't understand the hate Castillo got for showing up to spring training fat. I mean I get it and it's definitely not a positive characteristic. I think it stems from the fact that we, as fans, would give our left arm for just the chance to being a professional athlete, so when we see a player act like Castillo, we hate him for it. Does he not realize how lucky he is? Still, don't act like he's the only one to ever do this. I've seen plenty of students in college, realizing they were going to pass a class, just give up going to class and learning. Or a co-worker upon being promoted or giving a bonus, slacking off. Or a husband with an absolutely beautiful wife, cheat on her. There are those in the world who would love to have the opportunity we have here in country but some take it for granted...I'm off topic.)

There are plenty of sports examples of the main subject of the aside as well, Bryan Thomas (LB of the Jets) got a big contract extension before the 2007 season, showed up to camp out of shape, sucked for a year, came back this year to training camp saying the same thing Castillo is saying and is having a good season, so it's possible for a player to bounce back from being lazy.

So, combining the recovery of his knees, getting in shape, a little better luck and the fact that Castillo has not really lost any of his inner-baseball skills, it's very likely that he could be a league average second baseman next year. The latter assertion, while not groundbreaking, would mean a huge upgrade for the Mets at second and certainly would have gotten them to the playoffs last year if they had a league average second baseman all other things being equal.

However, this post is not a Castillo love-fest. Knee surgery is an extremely serious sports injury, check out knee1.com for proof...awesome website, best site on the internets if you ask me now that fjm.com is gone. Mickey Mantle never recovered from his knee injury, Mo Vaughn's career ended with knee surgery, ditto for Bill Mueller, and Andre Dawson, personal favorite Patrick Ewing never was the same once his knees went, even Tiger’s future is up in the air after knee surgery. So, even though I love stats, this really is a subjective topic, the question should not be can Castillo bounce back but rather can Castillo knees bounce back?

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

Tweet Comment 21 comments | 2 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

A few notes

1) Nice analysis. I don’t hate Castillo as much as some others, and think that given decent health that he could at least be useful at second.

2) I know you’re not really trying to make excuses for Castillo, but pointing out other people who have phoned it in to their respective jobs doesn’t make Castillo any less pathetic for doing it to his. There’s simply no excuse for ballplayers or celebrities to be overweight.

3) While Metallica hasn’t released a great record since AJFA, the Black Album was definitely good and, IMHO, Death Magnetic (minus U3) is very good.

4) P.S. You’re the FanPost MVP this week.

by Eric Simon on Nov 24, 2008 11:03 PM EST reply actions

Fair notes

2) ha on the celebrities having no excuse to being overweight
I will point out that I do like to play devil’s advocate in an effort to get others to look at a topic from a different perspective even if I do not agree with my own argument. Précis, I do not condone his actions.

3) I agree that the Black Album, aside from ripping off Spinal Tap, was very good. I also really liked Death Magnetic sans U3 and The Day that Never Comes, my problem with The Day that Never Comes is that, while Kurt shines, the structure of the song just seems to try too hard to replicate their earlier work (Come on it’s track 4 just like Fade to Black and One) without having the feeling of a continuous song that appropriately builds in the way FtB and One does.

4) The week is still young, someone could take that title from me.

by Sokojoe on Nov 24, 2008 11:35 PM EST up reply actions

Note

Edited said Metallica comment from good to great

by Sokojoe on Nov 24, 2008 11:45 PM EST up reply actions

second metallica's black album being dope

i know its a the beginning of their total departure form the AJFA raging mega awesomeness, but it is the first metallica album i bought and without i would never have gotten their older stuff when i did. load was, of course, a big load, unfortunately. what a dump they took. thinking about it still makes me mad, especially that piece of ass video for the piece of ass song Until It Sleeps, although seeing their reloaded tour was actually pretty sweet.

now, be honest is death magnetic actually worth paying for? i havent heard any of it.

by kendynamo on Nov 25, 2008 12:52 PM EST up reply actions

Yes

DM is a very good album, Unforgiven 3’s utter woefulness notwithstanding.

by Eric Simon on Nov 25, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

Well done.

1. Great post. Like I said in the other Castillo thread, I really am concerned if he can bounce back from knee surgery enough to be close to the player he used to be. As anyone with bad knees knows, the only way to make the pain stop is to get off of your feet, and grab an ice pack.

2. If his knees really are better this season, he will be a much more effective hitter. To reiterate one of your points, Castillo’s skills are still there. He’s got old guy skills – great batting eye, chooses when to steal carefully, rarely strikes out. If the body is able, he’ll at least be an average second baseman.

3. About him being out of shape: it’s not just that fans can’t understand how a professional athlete can let himself get out of shape like that, it’s that we had just gifted him a massive contract way above anything he could have gotten from any other team.

4. She may not look the same, but I would still play doubles with Anna Kournikova.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 24, 2008 11:46 PM EST reply actions

4. … if you know what I mean.

by JoshNY on Nov 25, 2008 11:45 AM EST up reply actions

Trade him for a bag of baseballs

I agree with much of the analysis and I’m not a total Castillo hater, but the contract has to be the determining factor. If all we can expect is league average from Castillo then trade him to get out from under his contract and use Murphy/Reyes at 2b. I firmly believe that a combination of them could be league average and the money saved could be better spent plugging other holes.

by Reg Dunlop on Nov 25, 2008 9:24 AM EST reply actions

To quote (plagiarize)

In An Absolute World, we would be able to trade Castillo for a bag of baseballs and used the money saved elsewhere.

I have no problem with this view and fully support it. However, I ~~don’t think~~ know it’s not going to happen. If we want to get rid of the contract so bad, why would a GM want to take it on? There have been two possible deals mentioned, (excluding Byrnes as it was denied by Arizona,) Castillo for Guillen and Castillo for Vasquez. I don’t think even Kenny Williams would honestly do the latter deal. As for the former, it would add 6 Million dollars this season with a net cost of six million over the life of the contracts, plus Guillen has personal problems, probably would hate being platooned, is a joke on defense, past his peak (33 next year,) and hit as bad a Castillo (respectivly speaking, position wise,) so it doesn’t really feel like an upgrade in addition to costing us money.

Maybe I’m missing a deal though, what would you propose that a GM would reasonable accept to get rid of Castillo’s contract?

by Sokojoe on Nov 25, 2008 9:59 AM EST up reply actions

To be honest

I don’t have one. But at this point I’d be willing to take Guillen in spite of the cost for two reasons.
First, I think a Guillen platoon is preferable to Castillo every day. A Guillen/D-Murph platoon could work as well as a Tatis/D-Muph platoon and it would provide insurance against an injury to Church or Tatis turning back into a pumpkin. If it means improved defense from A. Reyes at 2b I’m all for it. Alternately, if it means Murphy moving to second, I could live with Guillen getting PA’s against LHP’s instead of Church. Second, I think Guillen could be more viable as trade bait down the line. Unless Castillo does something great this year his trade value will only go down from it’s Sirius like lows. I think come trade deadline time, more teams would be willing to take a chance on a right handed hitter with some power and this could give the Mets a chance to get out from under the contract.

There is no good deal out there. Castillo is a worthless commodity. If we are stuck with him, I hope he will rebound this year. But I’m not optimistic and at this point I’m willing to take on someone else’s garbage if means less of an obligation to play them.

by Reg Dunlop on Nov 25, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions

He's not entirely worthless.

The guy can still get on base. It’s certainly a valuable skill. If only he had any others left at this point.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 25, 2008 6:38 PM EST up reply actions

After the 48 comments from the previous Castillo fan post...

…I thought we had all had enough. Ugh!

" Whatcha got ain't nothin new. This country's hard on people, you can't stop what's coming, it ain't all waiting on you. That's vanity. "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Nov 25, 2008 5:12 PM EST reply actions

Eat the Contract and Move On

This is a Mets free agent signing that ranks with Bobby Bonilla and Vince Coleman.The team should eat the remainder of the contract or trade him for a bucket of balls and move on. What do they need an over thirty, overweight, slowing down second baseman who even in his best years was nothing more than a slap hitter. He is not as good in the field as Argenis Reyes, not as good at the plate as Damion Easley and his overall performance can never justify what he is being paid. There are other second baseman on the market (Brian Roberts, Orlando Hudson and possibly Dan Uggla) that are flawed and would still be more valuable. Castillo is almost worthless and the team would be wise to throw him into a deal and offer to pay part of his salary. Right now, he is useless to this team

by heatcoach on Nov 26, 2008 6:12 PM EST reply actions

Really?

Was the Bonilla contract really that bad? As one of Eric’s recent posts about the 50 Greatest Mets showed, Bobby Bo was a pretty good player during his Mets tenure. It’s not his fault the teams sucked those years; they had problems far greater than him. Take a look:

In 1992, he had the highest OPS+ of any regular. He led the team in HR and SLG, was 2nd in RBI, was 2nd in runs (by just 2), was 2nd in walks, and did all of that in just 128 games.
In 1993, he again led the team in HR, SLG, and OPS+, and for good measure led in BB too. He led the team in runs, was 3rd in hits (just 1 less than Jeff Kent). And did all of this in only 139 games. That’s 13.9% of the season.
In 1994, he again led the Mets in HR, SLG, OPS+, and BB. He was a close 2nd in H (only 4 fewer than Hundley), tied for the lead in 2B, and in RBI (only 1 less than Hundley), all in 108 games. Which was a team high. Jesus, those teams had some serious injury issues.

Point is, although we may not remember Bobby Bonilla fondly, his was not a terrible contract. Vince Coleman, on the other hand, was a lousy idea. That dude was fucking terrible. Throwing firecrackers at fans in the parking lot didn’t help endear him to us, either. Castillo lies somewhere in between these 2 FAs: He’s providing about what we expected of him offensively, but he’s a huge liability in the field, and he’s way overpaid.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 26, 2008 7:44 PM EST up reply actions

I'm glad to see that two other people think he's overpaid as well.

" Whatcha got ain't nothin new. This country's hard on people, you can't stop what's coming, it ain't all waiting on you. That's vanity. "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Nov 26, 2008 9:36 PM EST up reply actions

Oh he is waaaaay overpaid

But since management seems to be committing Murphy to LF and there’s really no deals to be had for Castillo (I hear Kenny Williams won’t go any higher than a bucket of used balls, but Omar wants new ones), it looks like we’re stuck with him.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 27, 2008 2:31 AM EST up reply actions