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Oliver Perez = Sandy Koufax, Randy Johnson

Much the way he did for other big free agents like Alex Rodriguez and Johnny Damon, Scott Boras's agency has put together a comprehensive (and in many cases, wildly misleading) "book" on Oliver Perez. The book is divided into eight chapters with astonishingly optimistic titles like "Perez Turns Corner in 2006," "Perez Is One of Baseball’s Top 5 Left-Handed Starting Pitchers," "A Rare Young Left-Handed Starting Pitcher Available on the Free-Agent Market," "Big-Game Ollie," and "Durable Ollie." Michael Smith of the New York Times has more:

In the chapter "Perez Turns Corner in 2006," charts are used to argue that the pitching statistics for Perez, who is now 27, are similar to those of Randy Johnson and the Hall-of-Fame pitcher Sandy Koufax at the same age. What’s more, the charts argue that Perez’s control problems will improve, just like they did for Koufax and Johnson as they got older.

Randy Johnson is just a terrible comparison, as Unit didn't pitch his first full season until he was 25; Perez had already pitched four half or full seasons by that age. They're both lefties who are/were prone to wildness, but these two are really apples-and-pears.

Koufax is actually sort of interesting here. Koufax began his big league career at age 19, Perez at 20. Both had high strikeout rates but terrible control in their early years. Through age 24, both had turned in so-so careers (though Perez had a brilliant season at age 22; Koufax had no such season early on).

At age 25, each pitcher turned in a very good season, with an ERA around 20% better than the league (Koufax at 123 ERA+; Perez at 120 ERA+). Both had strong strikeout rates and somewhat improved walk rates.

Here's where the paths diverge, albeit for just one season to this point. At age 26, Koufax notched an ERA 41% better than the league and posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio of almost four-to-one (216-to-57). His WHIP was just a shade over one. Perez, on the other hand, posted an ERA exactly the same as the rest of the league, had a strikeout-to-walk ratio worse than two-to-one (180-to-105), and had a WHIP north of 1.4.

Koufax's next four years represented one of the most ungodly stretches in baseball history, recording ERA+ marks of 159, 187, 160 and 190, all WHIPs under one, amazing strikeout and walk rates and almost 300 innings per season. Oliver Perez will replicate none of those.

If we bring this conversation back around to Johnson, the Mets would be much better off signing Big Unit to a one-year deal than Oliver Perez to a five-year deal at whatever absurd annual salary Boras will be demanding.

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Comments

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Scott Boras is just the kinda man Fox News is lookin' for.

Spin Doctor!

" Well, ain't it a small world, spiritually speaking. Pete and Delmar just been baptized and saved. I guess I'm the only one that remains unaffiliated. "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Nov 6, 2008 11:21 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Makes me realize

We often loose sight of how young Ollie is. He may have a good career yet, just not with us I hope.

by Sam Page on Nov 6, 2008 11:21 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Do Not Want

Part of me love’s Ollie because i appreciate crazy, but please Omar take the draft picks and let someone else pay him to walk 100+ guys a year.

by Gina on Nov 6, 2008 11:52 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

ditto. for all the good starts he's had, i cannot stand to watch him pitch.

not as bad as watching trax pitch, but it was getting to that point for me.

by gogomets on Nov 6, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What's more hilarious?

This comparison or the time that Boras claimed Adrian Beltre had had the greatest season by a 3rd baseman in major league history.

You know, because Beltre “was the first third baseman to bat .330, hit 45 homers, drive in 100 runs and score 100 in one season.” http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/13/sports/baseball/13boras.html?pagewanted=print&position=

Beltre had a fine season that year (2004), but was that really a better year than…say…George Brett’s 1980 season where he hit .390, had an on base percentage of .454, and had an OPS+ of 203 (Beltre’s OPS+ was 163 in 2004).

by ams258 on Nov 6, 2008 12:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

this should be fun

GM’s should leak how the meetings go to the press more. they cant publicly do it, at least not while boras still reps so many players, but all this makes great comedy. so basically what steve phillips did with A-Rod just not as stupidly and not with one of the top 5 players of all time.

by kendynamo on Nov 6, 2008 12:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'll take Ollie back

For 3 years, $24 million. Somehow, I doubt Boras will go for that. Lots of luck with the sucker team that signs you, Ollie. I loved you while you were in a Mets uniform.

Vote change: DePodesta/Acta in 2009!!!

by Greenpoint Ian on Nov 6, 2008 12:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Boras

Does anyone really buy the shit he’s shoveling?

by JoshNY on Nov 6, 2008 2:16 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

You think that's bad...

…ESPN has had Drew (The Schlepper) Rosenhaus on their program, 1st Take for the past two days blabbering non-stop with his “non”-articulate comments. The guy just looks like a used car salesman.

" Well, ain't it a small world, spiritually speaking. Pete and Delmar just been baptized and saved. I guess I'm the only one that remains unaffiliated. "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Nov 6, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

disagree

you could hate boras more but he’s an infinitely better agent. drew rosenhaus is a media whore douchebag. boras is a ruthless dickhead, for sure, but he cares more about hes clients getting paid then he does about getting time on some hack espn show. from a players perspective, having to choose one, its not even close.

by kendynamo on Nov 6, 2008 5:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

" Well, ain't it a small world, spiritually speaking. Pete and Delmar just been baptized and saved. I guess I'm the only one that remains unaffiliated. "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Nov 7, 2008 12:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

true

but let’s not make Boras into some magnanimous altruist – Boras care about the clients he’s getting paid because the more money they make, the more money he makes

by JoshNY on Nov 7, 2008 10:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Right

Were I a player, I’d take a Boras-type of agent because he will make me the most money. Being a complete dick about money is what makes him a great (and filthy rich) agent. But he is still a complete dick.

'Catsmeat!' he cried. 'I see it all. It was that chump, Catsmeat.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Nov 7, 2008 11:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

In light of the current economy

Filthy rich has a pretty ugly ring to it.

I’m not against making money mind you…I’m just sayin. :-)

" Well, ain't it a small world, spiritually speaking. Pete and Delmar just been baptized and saved. I guess I'm the only one that remains unaffiliated. "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Nov 7, 2008 2:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

um

i was talking in terms of being a legendary douchebag, not in skill. of course boras is going to get his players paid more, he represents players in a league without a salary cap. so…

by gogomets on Nov 8, 2008 3:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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