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Around SBN: NFL Roundtable: Which Draft Pick Is Most Likely To Bust?

Meet Jeremy Reed

Much has been written about the J.J. Putz elements of the Mets last night’s blockbuster. But what about those other two guys? Well, Shawn Sean Green is basically a slightly older and slightly better version of Joe Smith. Not a bad swap for a team so desperate to win now. And oh yea, corks are weird.

Jeremy Reed is a slightly more interesting case. First a brief history: The Chicago White Sox selected Jeremy Reed in the second round of the 2002 MLB Draft (the Moneyball draft) from Long Beach State University. In 2003, Reed was the White Sox Minor League Player of the Year after batting .409 in 66 AA-games at age 22. Baseball America wrote this report, after ranking him the best prospect in Chicago’s system:

Reed can really hit. He not only has a simple stroke that allows him to make contact almost at will but he also has a terrific eye for the strike zone. He walked nearly twice as much as he struck out in 2003. Wally Backman, his manager at Birmingham, says Reed has such an advanced ability to anticipate pitches that he sometimes helps teammates prepare for at-bats.

Then, in classic Kenny Williams fashion, he was sent to the Mariners for Freddy Garcia. In 2005, he was the Mariners centerfielder. His offensive value was severely hampered by a .254 BA, which can be partially attributed to a 18.9% line drive rate, not good for a player whose best skill is contact. The silver lining, however, was his awesome 13.2 UZR in center that year (that’s more than double Beltran’s 2008). The next year, Reed suffered all sorts of injuries in the field. He spent 2007 in AAA Tacoma and posted .806 OPS. Then in 2008, he posted .349 average (.357 BABIP) in AAA before being called up to the struggling Mariner squad and hitting .269.

Reed is 27 this year and still something of a mystery. Is he the frustrated AAA masher who put up a .970 OPS or just AAAA/Bench type? Is he the slightly below average fielder he was in limited play last year, or the terrific centerfielder of 2005? Like John Maine and Oliver Perez, he is a former top prospect, acquired as a throw-in. Will he be the surprise contributor they were? We’ll see, but consider these questions next time you’re quick to dismiss him as a significantly less valuable than Endy Chavez.

 

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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Nice rundown

Thanks for helping shed a little light on this dude. Interested to see him in action.

'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 11, 2008 5:36 PM EST reply actions  

Nice picture choice

BtB has Reed at 1.26 WAR and Chavez at 2.41 WAR, in addition Reed cannot steal a base in the majors with totals of 19 SBs and 18 CS (ouch, that sucks!) Reed has continued to hit the minors well recently though ops-ing .806 in 2007 and .970 in 2008, however at age 26 and 27 that’s nothing to really get exicited about and his best season was five years ago. So, yeah, I reasonably dismiss Reed for being significantly less valuable than Chavez by almost half according to projections; however, I do regonize that there is defintly upside while Chavez peaked.

by Sokojoe on Dec 11, 2008 5:37 PM EST reply actions  

Not that I think one WAR is "signifcant" with projections

but Endy has a lower carrer UZR in center (despite more innings) and a lower projected wOBA

by Sam Page on Dec 11, 2008 6:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Good lord

some of the stats you guys throw out lose me real quick.

WAR, UZR, wOBA ????WTF?

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Dec 11, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions  

i sympathize

being lazy, it took me a loooong time of reading those acronyms before finally getting around to figuring out what they mean.

by kendynamo on Dec 11, 2008 7:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah I'm lazy too

I’m not that concerned. It’s just funny that one person could say something like, “Beltran seems to be slumping a bit” and the response would be something like, “Well his w00t is up and his LDRDNG is higher then his career average so not really”

Nothing wrong with any of that, I just find it funny.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Dec 11, 2008 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

All you need to know about HGP (Heart/Grit Percentage)

Is that Voltron is sorely lacking in it, on account of his abysmally low Pastiness Factor.

'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 11, 2008 8:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Reed's HGP

Is higher then Chavez’s due to his whiteness. Therefore he is instantly more valuable.

by Reg Dunlop on Dec 11, 2008 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

If only Reed was under 6 feet tall

His HGP would go through the freaking roof.

'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 11, 2008 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow this comment chain got long

I agree with your line of thinking. Chavez has been more valuable than Reed, but Reed has shown flashes and had a defensive down year last year. Irregardless, swapping 4th OF isn’t a huge deal for a team, unless said team has Moises Alou/Cliff Floyd on their roster.

by Sokojoe on Dec 12, 2008 11:23 AM EST up reply actions  

oh and....

Good job shedding light on the Mets latest acquisition.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Dec 11, 2008 6:18 PM EST reply actions  

I'm very interested in him

But I think the first question we should ask ourselves is with

Church
Beltran
Murphy
Tatis
and unfortunately probably Ibanez.

Where does he fit in?

by Gina on Dec 11, 2008 7:01 PM EST reply actions  

Yep.

and it works out quite nicely for me. Plan to attend quite a few games.

'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 11, 2008 7:36 PM EST up reply actions  

stop saying Ibanez

maybe we can help it not happen through the power of positive thinking

by JoshNY on Dec 11, 2008 9:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not dismissing Reed

but I’m pretty sure Endy is more valuable, all around. Yeah, Reed’s had injuries, but he’s had 6 seasons of pro ball and 1000+ major league PA’s. Do we really think he’s all of a sudden gonna figure it out?

I just don’t see him contributing to the Mets. As Gina asked, where does he fit?

by James Kannengieser on Dec 11, 2008 9:36 PM EST reply actions  

Reed might be a sleeper who knows...

From the my perspective as an M’s fan he had so much potential but never decided to use it.

BOOYA! You got Slurved!

by Slurvey on Dec 12, 2008 1:14 AM EST reply actions  

And remember,

he’s younger than Church was when we acquired him last season and the same age Nady was when we nabbed him.

by SQUAD on Dec 12, 2008 10:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Thank the lord Ibanez signed with Philly Phew
Adam Dunn was always going to cost more than $10 mil per year anyway, so Ibanez signing for that doesn’t really affect Adam Dunn’s price…plus I’ve not heard any team saying they want him so hopefully it will lower his price somewhat.
But on subject, I feel a bit better about Jeremy Reed now hopefully he can be valuable.

by Ohpityme on Dec 13, 2008 4:50 AM EST reply actions  

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