Trade Analysis - Overpaying for Putz?

by Baseball Handyman on Dec 13, 2008 9:35 AM EST

James over at Mets Tailgate posted a piece Thursday quickly breaking down the J.J. Putz to the Mets deal. I loved his breaking down the deal into smaller parts, and it helped me better analyze whether the Mets dealt too much for a pitcher projected to handle 8th inning duties.

To take James' piece a step further, the deal really needs to be split into two pieces.

1. Endy Chavez/Joe Smith for Sean Green/Jeremy Reed

Not much to say about this except both pairs of players are extremely similar from a statistical standpoint with Chavez being a few years older than Reed and Green being a few years older than Smith. If this deal had been made by itself, I'm not sure anybody would really know why both organizations even bothered.

2. J.J. Putz for Aaron Heilman, Mike Carp, Maikel Cleto, Jason Vargas, and Ezequiel Carrera

Much of Putz' value is based on the assumption he is now healthy and will revert to his 2006-2007 stat line when he was one of the top five closers in baseball. While his previous elbow injury behind him, this very well may happen, but Putz is far from a sure thing as the 31-year old is a relative late bloomer without a long track record of success who posted a downright terrifying 1.60 WHIP in 2008.

For the Mariners, Aaron Heilman is the biggest name to head west and could prove to be of value should he successfully revert back to the starting rotation. As a starter making somewhere in the neighborhood of two million, his numbers could rival Carlos Silva who the Mariners signed to a four year, forty-eight million dollar deal just an off season earlier.

At best, Claudio Vargas is a long reliever/mop up duty type who holds little to no apparent value.

Mike Carp and Maikel Cleto ranked numbers eight and eighteen respectively on my top 20 Mets prospect list. Carp's high end projection is similar to that of Lyle Overbay with Maikel Cleto being a young fireballer with questionable secondary offerings. In watching him pitch towards the end of the 2008 season, I was impressed with his hitting 97 MPH on the gun on a handful of occasions and maintaining his velocity deep into a late season game. While I don't see Cleto as a starter long term, I can see him definitely becoming a formidable closer should he develop a second pitch.

Carrera would have ranked in the top twenty-five Mets prospects had I extended the list out a few more spots, but projects as a 4th outfielder type as his ability to consistently drive the baseball is in question. However, his dozen triples and twenty-nine steals show speed, a tool which simply can not be taught.

In total, the Mets dealt quite a bit for a set up man whose injury plagued 2008 leaves question marks entering spring training. In defense of the Mets, the players dealt were spare parts in the organizational big picture and Omar Minaya was able to use the sum total of those parts to land a key component to the 2009 roster. It's obviously not a secret the Mets missed the playoffs because of their pen, and while the Mets may very well have dealt more than many organizations would have, a talented set up man is a necessity for a team who lacked the ability to close games out down the stretch.

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one problem

Jason Vargas (the guy the Mets DID trade) and Claudio Vargas are 2 different guys. I don’t know if that changes the analysis any or not.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down. And that foot is me.

by sireric on Dec 13, 2008 11:41 AM EST reply actions

To me, here's the bottom line on the question of overpaying....

it’s not overpaying when you deal two guys who had no future with the organization (Heimlan and Carp, both for their own reasons), a 4th OF (as good as Endy is defensively, I’m not going to let him be a deal killer), a ROOGY (yes, I liked Smith as much as the next guy, but he’s replaceable, and I think Kunz. O’Day, Green, Robertson, Stokes could all do the job), and two guys who are so young/far down the system that you have no idea how they’ll turn out unless you have a very reliable Quija board.

Essentially, the Mets gave up a bunch of spare/eminently replaceable parts.

by SQUAD on Dec 13, 2008 12:06 PM EST reply actions

Heilman had no future with the organization because idiot fans and media determined to run him out of town. That’s a terrible reason for Omar to be making his decisions.

by JoshNY on Dec 13, 2008 12:08 PM EST up reply actions

Heilman

Look, he wanted to be a starter, now he’ll have his chance. Plus, I’d rather have Putz setting up K-Rod than Heilman anyway.

Putz > Heilman

I think that’s a pretty good reason for Omar to be making his decisions.

by SQUAD on Dec 13, 2008 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

He should've gotten his chance

with the Mets. I think that’s the point.

Who's world is it? It's yours.

by BlackOps on Dec 13, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

Why?

He’s a two pitch pitcher. He was an awesome setup guy who could have closed eventually. He was solid in the rotation, but he had times when he was dominant out of the pen. One could argue he would have been even better if he really got behind his relief role.

by SQUAD on Dec 14, 2008 1:30 AM EST up reply actions

Why not?

Who's world is it? It's yours.

by BlackOps on Dec 14, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

quality over quantity

I really don’t see any good reason to think the Mets “overpaid” or even “gave up a lot” in this deal. Stepping back from the specifics, here’s how this trade looks to me in general — we dealt a pile of replaceable spare parts, and got back a player who has a chance to be really good (plus some other spare parts). I want my GM to make a deal like that anytime one is offered — all the B-grade roster-filler you want in exchange for one possibly A-grade player who really improves the team. I like Heilman, Smith, and Chavez, and Carp might even turn into a major-league player someday, but none of them is anything close to indispensable.

by anonymous on Dec 13, 2008 12:50 PM EST reply actions

that about sums it up for me

I was gonna add on but I really got nothing more to add to this. I think it’s a deal worth making.

'Oh yes, I know all about that duty-of-a-citizen stuff. It doesn't go. There are exceptions to every rule, and this was one of them. When a man risks his liberty to come and root at a ball-game, you've got to hand it to him. He isn't a crook. He's a fan.'

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 13, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

I think all in all

the only player I’m really “worried”, and even worried is too strong of a word, about losing is Ezequiel Carrera, because of the speed and batting eye and defense and us not really have any other outfielder like him in the system that I know of.

Heilman probably did need to go because there was too much baggage here, not just with the fans but with him and the front office. Carp I like a lot but he’s probably replaceable. Endy I loved but he was likely going to find himself the odd man out here anyway, Green for Smith is pretty much a wash. And I don’t think Cleto really matters one way or another.

by Gina on Dec 13, 2008 1:37 PM EST reply actions

Let's consider the players involved

Aaron Heilman— I would have liked to see him stay, but there’s a good argument that he should be given a chance to experiment with starting elsewhere. I get a sense the Mets didn’t have time to wait for him to figure out starting and I understand.

Mike Carp— I love Carp. But his skills don’t play well on a national league team, a no-defense, marginal power firstbaseman. Those skills do not equal stud prospect either. Nick Evans would probably be a better option at first, this year and beyond.

Vargas— Worthless

Carrera— not needed.

Cleto— Cleto hasn’t proven himself able to handle single A. I’m sorry, but 18th on the top 20 Mets prospects list is no accomplishment.

by Sam Page on Dec 13, 2008 5:53 PM EST reply actions

Now I Can Sleep Better At Night

I think the deal was the right one to make at the right time. I can sleep better at night knowing that Putz will be pitching the eighth inning.

I think everyone is making too much out of the truly spare parts the Mets got rid of. Look at who took the last plane out of LaGuardia this week.

Heilman: Please remember that this is the sullen, home-run throwing, clubhouse disrupting, delusional Aaron Heilman of 07 and 08, not the groundball inducing, dependable, 8th inning machine of 06. Whether he has been physically injured or lost his nerve, he has not been an albatross around the team’s neck. Remember that when someone, anyone who could throw the ball 60’ 6" across the plate was needed last September, Heilman was not brought in. His place in the bullpen rotation receeded from the 8th to the 7th to mop-up man after the all-star break.

Joe Smith: He is a bit of a dilemma. Brought up from the minor leagues a year too soon, he was truly effective during the first two months of 07, but never really established any consistency over the next two years. He would show life here or there, but Smith lost the strike zone on too many occasions. He was supposed to be Chad Bradford, Jr. The problem with submarine pitchers is the release point. If you don’t throw from the right spot, everytime, the ball will rise into the hitter’s sweet zone. There is not as much room for error. He may be very good in Cleveland, but he will spend his career literally being one inch between an ERA of 2.00 and 6.00.

Chavez: I will miss Endy the most. Not for his recent play, but for the thrills of 06. He played himself out of a starting role by showing a great inability to stay healthy or hit for long stretches. It says a lot about what the manager thought of his value when he couldn’t crack the starting lineup and the team played infielders in left and right. Think about it: you are a professional outfielder and you are sitting while Fernanado Tatis, Daniel Murphy and the New Orleans infield are higher on the depth chart.

Vargas and the minor leaguers: Historically, this organization tends to either over value or estimate its talent. They brag about all of their five tool players that come to the majors and flop. Or, they bring them up too early and sacrifice careers and years of possibility. The list is endless on all fronts. Timothy Leary. The K squad. Even our 70s hero, Lee Mazzilli. For every Wright and Reyes, there is a Greg Goosen, Shawn Abner and Steve Chilcott.

I am more worried about how this new bullpen will do in a new league. Too little emphasis has been placed on players ability to adapt to their new surroundings and new opponents. Will the National League hitters be able to do things with them that American League hitters couldn’t?

This is a team that has to win now!!!! They’ve had their chances the last three years and the window is closing on this group. Minaya now has to address the starting pitching, left field and second base if they are going to compete with the team down the turnpike. They were poorly put together last year and need to get better.

by heatcoach on Dec 14, 2008 1:06 PM EST reply actions

"clubhouse disrupting"?

Don’t recall hearing much about that.

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 14, 2008 1:42 PM EST up reply actions

Heilman was still pretty good in 2007

Please remember that this is the sullen, home-run throwing, clubhouse disrupting, delusional Aaron Heilman of 07 and 08

Once again, Heilman was the only dependable reliever we had down the stretch in 2007. Yes, he was pretty bad this year, but he’d always been pretty good until now. In ’07, Heilman had a 140 ERA+ and a 1.07 WHIP-both career highs. He also allowed only 8 home runs in 86 innings, which comes out to 0.84 HR/9.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Dec 14, 2008 1:58 PM EST up reply actions

it's funny how memory works

I feel like I remember Heilman being terrible down the stretch in ‘07, but obviously my memory is wrong. Did he blow any big games during that stretch? I’m not saying that would make him a terrible pitcher, just saying that might go a ways towards explaining why common perception seems to be that he sucked in ’07, despite all the evidence to the contrary

by cjmulrain on Dec 14, 2008 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

I feel ya!

I went through explaining this (2nd half of ’07) in another thread.

In the 2nd half of 2007, Heilman had:

1 save (August 25th against Dodgers)
4 straight losses (August 11th, 16th, 23rd, Sep. 14th)
1 win (August 8th)

(I’ve been seriously beat up in the blog about the importance of Wins / Losses so take it as you want).

The stats above aren’t all encompassing of what he did in middle relief. Obviously he performed better when he was NOT called on to close a game. I’m glad he’s gone. I hope he does better in Seattle. I for one am happy that I no longer have to worry about him or the The non-Show appearing in the 7th, 8th or 9th and making me feel like I have to throw up.

" We got "The Rod"...What you got? "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Dec 14, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions

Joe Smith isn't a submariner

and he’s not the prodigy you think he is. He’s a ROOGY.

by Sam Page on Dec 14, 2008 4:49 PM EST up reply actions

As far as win-now

IMO this really isn’t a team that has to be in win now mode. The only reason we would be is because of Delgado and having no long-term answer for the hole he’ll leave, which could easily be fixed by signing someone like Dunn, or even breaking the bank for Tex. Outside of Delgado what’s really win now about us? Everyone else important is under contract at least until 2011. Really I feel much better about us not completely falling apart and collapsing in the future now than I this time last off-season.

by Gina on Dec 14, 2008 6:49 PM EST up reply actions

I think in New York...

…win now is every year. More so with the Yankees than with the METS. But when a club is spending the second most in the majors and has coughed up a playoff slot 2 years in a row in the last month, I tend to believe that there’s some serious win now pressure on the METS.

See Willie Randolph getting fired.

Why have a sit on your a$$ mentality and play to win later on down the line? 1986 seems like a long time ago to me.

" We got "The Rod"...What you got? "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Dec 14, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions

Hmm?

I’m not sure we’re on the same page? Who said anything about sitting on their ass? I said thinking long-term, like instead of waiting for Delgado to fall apart and then scrambling to replace him, which I’m still really curious to see what they’re plan for that is, signing someone like Dunn or Tex now. How is that playing to win later on down the line?

Also I’m pretty sure the win-now mentality, and only thinking off-season to off-season is a major reason why we’ve missed the play-offs the last two years.

by Gina on Dec 14, 2008 7:31 PM EST up reply actions

Forgive me if I misunderstood you. Perhaps I didn't have complete context of your earlier comment.

No harm – no foul.

Speaking of win now, get a load out of the latest from “Skankee” land.

http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081214&content_id=3716994&vkey=news_nyy&fext=.jsp&c_id=nyy

" We got "The Rod"...What you got? "

by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Dec 14, 2008 8:24 PM EST up reply actions

We are the biggest win-now situation ever

see: my orlando hudson post

by Sam Page on Dec 14, 2008 7:32 PM EST up reply actions

Why?

by Gina on Dec 14, 2008 7:54 PM EST up reply actions

Here's the ctrl-v of it all

Their core is arguably better than Doc/Straw/Keith, and probably the best in the majors. Reyes and Wright are at their offensive peaks. Santana, while still a deity, is past his prime. Carlos Voltron, past his offensive prime, seems to be in the throes of strange and beautiful defensive god-period. The talent exists, the stadium is opening, the failure looms.

It’s not wise to wait until D-Wright is 28 and Johan is 32 to go into “win-now” mode. What’s the Billy Beane quote from last year? “There’s middle ground in this business”…or something.

by Sam Page on Dec 14, 2008 9:17 PM EST up reply actions

Agree with samt

When you have a corps of Wright, Reyes, Beltran, and Johan, every year is “win now.”

by SQUAD on Dec 15, 2008 12:04 AM EST up reply actions

*core

by SQUAD on Dec 15, 2008 12:04 AM EST up reply actions

I don't think it's smart

to mortgage the future for marginal improvement in the now (the trade that shall not be named comes immediately to mind). That said, the core is good enough to win right now and I’d hate to see them waste that because they’re still young enough to win in 3 years. We don’t know what’s gonna happen in 3 years, and I don’t want to waste the primes of Reyes-Wright-Beltran-Santana. Obviously the best kind of moves are those that make them better today without sacrificing the future too much, but if they can greatly increase their chances to win now at the expense of the future, I think you need to do what you can to win now. It’s basically a balancing act.

by cjmulrain on Dec 14, 2008 11:47 PM EST up reply actions

Mortgage the Future?

Really?

by SQUAD on Dec 15, 2008 12:05 AM EST up reply actions

wait

do you have a problem with the phrase (perhaps for economy related reasons)? Or with the team-building philosophy?

by cjmulrain on Dec 15, 2008 1:35 AM EST up reply actions

Umm

We definitely got the better of this trade, and if you guys watched last season, we sort of needed a bullpen…

As much as i want to defend Heilman, he needed to go away. Far away. As did Shoenweiss…

Putz is exactly what we needed, and we gave up VIRTUALLY NOTHING to get him. I liked Endy as much as the next person, but he’s essentially a light hitting 4th outfielder. Its a lot easier to get someone like that over a potentially dominant 8th inning setup guy…

by JerseyNinerFan on Dec 15, 2008 9:46 AM EST reply actions